3 Mets prospects heading into a make-or-break year

These Mets prospects need to show what they're made of or risk fading away.

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New York Mets v Detroit Tigers . / Mark Cunningham/GettyImages
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The New York Mets are making it a priority to value their prospects to a high level this offseason. Instead of giving up on their plethora of mid-upper tier prospects in trades, they have opted for short-term or minor-league contracts. In large part, this has been done to focus on building a contender in 2025-26 rather than 'go all in' for 2024. This is also in part due to the rather inactivity across all 30 major league ballclubs, not named the Los Angeles Dodgers.

With the supplement of prospects from the 2023 draft and trade deadline deals, some players have gone under the radar. In reviewing MLB Pipeline's top 30 list from the beginning to end of 2023, many new faces have entered and exited the hierarchy of talent. This is not necessarily due to the trade deadline deals that brought back Luisangel Acuna and Drew Gilbert. Much of this is due to a lack of performance that went unnoticed in favor of the 'new shiny objects' we just acquired. Who are the top 3 prospects that are now in a make-or-break year for the Mets' future?

1. Matthew Allan

This young right-hander has been forgotten about for obvious reasons. Drafted out of Florida's Seminole High School in the 3rd round of 2019, Allan was considered one of the top 18-year-old arms in the country. For a team to have taken him away from his commitment to the University of Florida, they would have to pay a hefty price, especially with Scott Boras representation. Brodie Van Wagenen took this risk in 2019 and signed Allan to a bonus worth $2.5 million.

Going over the 3rd round slot value by millions came with big expectations for Allan. He immediately became the Mets' top pitching prospect in 2020 having only thrown 10.1 innings in 2019 between rookie ball and Class A Brooklyn. During the Covid shortened 2020 season, Allan was an invitee to the Mets' practice squad given the minor league season cancellation. It seemed as though Allan was on the fast track to making his major league debut at just 20 years old.

Since spring training in 2021, Allan has not thrown a single professional pitch. He has undergone two Tommy John Surgeries causing him to miss all of 2022 and 2023. It is unclear when Allan will pitch in 2024 and has had no media coverage since undergoing his second surgery last January. If Allan were to pitch in the minor leagues this season, he would be on an innings limit. Though he is still just 23 years old, Allan will have to show he can pitch this season for the Mets to still consider him a prospect.

2. Alex Ramirez

The Mets have a track record of signing immense talent out of the international market. At 16 years old, outfielder Alex Ramirez signed with the Mets out of the Dominican Republic in July of 2019 for $2.05 million. He is known as a solid defensive centerfielder with an above-average arm and great speed. With the lack of right-handed options for the outfield in 2024, Ramirez would have a solid chance of getting an opportunity in Queens later this season.

Ramirez broke out in 2022 playing 121 games between St. Lucie and Brooklyn. He hit a combined .281 with 11 home runs, 71 RBI, and 21 stolen bases. This result made Ramirez an MLB Pipeline top 100 prospect in all of baseball before the 2023 season. Since then, however, Ramirez only hit .221 with 7 home runs and 53 RBI for Brooklyn in 2023. He has fallen from a top-5 prospect in the Mets’ system down to 11.

David Stearns is taking a chance Ramirez will bounce back in 2024 having added the 21-year-old to the 40-man roster. This does not mean Ramirez will make his debut this season, Billy Eppler added Ronny Mauricio to the roster before 2022. Knowing the way Stearns values every 40-man roster spot, this was done to protect a still valuable asset from the Rule 5 Draft. However, if the Mets needed to clear space for another asset during the season, Ramirez could be a DFA candidate. This means the young outfielder must perform this season if he wants to remain in the organization.

3. Justin Jarvis

One of the cavalcades of prospects acquired in July may already be under a tight microscope. Drafted by the Stearns-led Milwaukee Brewers out of North Carolina in 2018, Justin Jarvis is a solid innings-eater type of starting pitcher. His fastball is not overwhelming, just topping out at 92-94 MPH, but his splitter is an out pitch that produces a lot of ground balls. While Jarvis’ pitch arsenal will not fool many batters, he still managed to strike out 138 in 188.2 innings this past season. His windup is reminiscent of former Mets pitcher Chris Bassitt.

Jarvis really broke out in 2022 throwing to a 3.83 ERA in 141 innings between Single-A and AA. His walk rate dropped significantly from 35 walks in 63 innings in 2021 to 66 in 141 innings in 2022. Though Jarvis seemed to be progressing, he struggled mightily at AAA for both the Brewers and the Mets. After starting the season with a 3.33 ERA in AA, he had an 8.04 ERA in just 31.1 innings pitched for AAA Syracuse. His walk rate was eye-opening with 22 of them across 9 starts.

Though Stearns drafted Jarvis in 2018, he did not protect him from the Rule 5 Draft this offseason. This decision is telling that the Mets do not believe Jarvis would be a major loss had another team drafted him. He is not far from major league ready being 23 years old and making it to AAA in 2023. While there is reason to believe the new automated strike zone in AAA played a part in Jarvis’ struggles, he must make adjustments to remain on the Mets’ future depth charts.

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