3 former Mets prospects who have fallen from grace

The major league amateur draft has been held every year since 1965. This is baseball’s attempt to evenly distribute the nation's new young talent throughout the MLB teams. To accomplish this, the draft is conducted in reverse order of the teams’ records from the previous season. It will still take several years before most of these prospects are ready for the major leagues, if ever. Projecting how these prospects will develop in years down the road makes this process somewhere between a science and a roll of the dice. 

When a young player is drafted, particularly in the first round, he immediately becomes a celebrity. He will be introduced at the home stadium, interviewed on sports talk shows, and you may even see his jersey available in stores. But keep in mind that this fame is short lived. There will be a new kid in town here in next year’s draft. This won't stop the club from promoting today’s prospect as a can’t miss future star of the franchise, the next Tom Seaver or Darryl Strawberry.

Sometimes this is true. Most times it is not. In 1966, the Mets had the first pick of the draft and chose a catcher named Steve Chilcott. You probably never heard of him as he never made it to the big leagues. The second selection of that same draft was future Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson. Sometimes, that’s just how it goes.

In recent years the Mets have had several prospects who have made it to the big club and had successful careers, players like David Wright Jose Reyes. As fans, we believe that many of today's prospects will follow their path and play for the Mets. Chances are that some of them will make it. They may even become stars. Chances are better that most of them won't live up to the hype.

But, what about the high hopes we had for our last group of future stars? What happened to them and where are they now?

1) Former NY Mets prospect who has fallen from grace: Justin Dunn

Justin Dunn is a pitcher who was taken by the Mets in the first round of the 2016 amateur draft. Since he was the 19th overall selection, he was immediately assigned to the Brooklyn Cyclones. Dunn was ranked as the Mets #3 prospect in both 2017 and 2018 by MLB.com and Mets fans couldn’t wait to see him pitch at Citi Field. Then something happened to change the course of his professional career. On December 3, 2018, the Mets traded Dunn, Jay Bruce, Jarred Kelenic, Anthony Swarzak, and Gerson Bautista to the Seattle Mariners for Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, and $20 million. Fans were outraged to see Dunn and some of the team's best young talent traded away for an aging superstar and a young relief pitcher.

Justin Dunn spent 2019 with the Arkansas Travelers going 9-5 and being named to the 2019 All-Star Futures game. He was brought up to the major league and over the course of the next three season pitched to a record of 5-4 with an ERA of 4.03. Then the bottom fell out. On August19, 2021, Justin Dunn was put on the 60 day injured list with a shoulder strain and was shut down for the season.

On March 14, 2022, Justin Dunn was traded to the Cincinnati Reds. He would begin his time with the new team on the 60 day injured list due to the same shoulder injury. He would eventually go 1-1 with a 6.10 ERA in seven appearances for Cincinnati. On March 4, 2023, Dunn was shut down again to allow his shoulder inflammation to heal. He was later diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain and will be lost for the remainder of the season. Justin Dunn plans to get healthy and pitch again in 2024.

3) Former NY Mets prospect who has fallen from grace: Dominic Smith

Dominic Smith is a first baseman who was selected by the Mets with the 11th overall pick of the 2013 Major League Baseball Draft. Turning down a scholarship from USC, Smith signed with the Mets for a $2.6 million signing bonus. Dominic Smith got off to a somewhat slow start in the minor leagues. While hitting over .300, he showed little power at the plate at several stops at single A in 2014-2015. He began to find the pop in his bat in 2016 by delivering 14 HRs with 91 RBIs and a .302 BA for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies. This trend continued in 2017 as he hit 18 HRs with 76 RBIs and a .330 BA. Smith was ranked as the organization’s #4 prospect in 2013, the #10 prospect in 2015, and then the #2 prospect in both 2016 and 2017 by MLB.com.

Dominic Smith spent parts of the next three seasons commuting between the Mets and the minor leagues, collecting 25 HRs with 62 RBIs in 528 Abs. Smith began to establish himself as a full time major league player in 2020. Pete Alonzo had solidified his place at first base after winning the 2019 Rookie of the Year Award, so Dominic began to play quite a bit of left field. In the Covid-19 shortened season, Smith hit 10 HRs with 45 RBIs and a .319 BA in only 199 ABs. Smith  was one of the finalists for the Hank Aaron Award for slugging percentage and finished thirteenth in the National League MVP Award voting.

However, the 2021 season began what can only be described as a regression. He began the season as the regular left fielder but his stats of 11HRs with 58 RBIs and a .244 BA in almost 500 ABs would not be enough to keep his job and the Mets began to look elsewhere. He began the 2022 season hitting only .194 with no HRs and was sent down to the minors. On November 18, 2022, the Mets declined to offer Smith a contract and he became a free agent. On January 4, 2023, Smith signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Washington Nationals. He is presently hitting .232 with no HRs for Washington as a part time player. Dominic Smith still believes that if he could play everyday, he will get his stroke back and show his value to the team.

Scouts try their best to project what they see in raw talent into possible future stars. Sometimes they are right. Sometimes they select Reggie Jackson. A far greater number of times they select Steve Chilcott. You can hope, you can dream, but truly you just never know. To say that it might be virtually unpredictable would be an understatement.