3 Mets prospects who will have a breakout year in 2023

Early last week, Baseball America released their rankings of the New York Mets system prior to the 2023 season. The list featured six players in their overall top 100 and overall, it looked like one of the stronger systems in baseball. The list spawns all over the New York farm system, seeing some of the top prospects in catcher Francisco Alvarez and third baseman Brett Baty, recent draftees like catcher Kevin Parada and even international import Kodai Senga made the list.

But the Mets, as stated by owner Steve Cohen two years ago, want to build themselves up as a “Dodgers East” and have approached the game that way on the major league level. 

On the minor league level, the Mets are still in the process of building their system up to a continuous pipeline of talent. Recent draft picks and international free agent classes have helped New York, but there's still a gap between talent at the top and that next tier. One of the apparent weaknesses of the Mets system is the lack of impact starting pitching and projectable bats, especially in the outfield.

Despite the weaknesses that are present, the Mets still have a ton of talent to look at outside of the top 10. Willy Fanas and Simon Juan, two big-money international bats, could take a considerable step forward, while 2022 fourth-round draft pick Jacob Riemer, someone already profiled before on Rising Apple, is another bat that could become a name to watch over the coming months. 

However, here are the three players that could take a considerable leap in 2023 and could become prospects of note for the Mets by the end of the season. 

1) NY Mets prospect who will breakout in 2023: Nick Morabito

If there’s one area where the Mets have struggled it's developing outfielders. Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo were both excellent first-round picks, but the list quickly slides down to the likes of Matt den Dekker and Kirk Nieuwenhuis in terms of drafted Mets outfield prospects who made the major leagues. Between last year’s draft and international free agency, the Mets added some new names to break the streak - Jett Williams, Willy Fanas, Simon Juan, and the player of focus, Nick Morabito. 

Selected with the 75th pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, Morabito was originally an infielder who moved to the outfield in his senior season of high school and thrived, finishing as the Washington D.C. Player of the Year with 12 home runs, 10 doubles, six triples, and a .545 batting average. That success attracted the Mets, who drafted him with the pick they acquired with the pick earned when Noah Syndergaard left for the Anaheim Angels. 

There’s not much to take from his first cup of coffee in major league ball (24 PA, .091, .167/.136, -5 wRC+ at the Complex), but rather, the skill set and the maturation. Morabito hits the ball well, with exit velocity numbers as high as 97 miles per hour, and showed good power in high school, the Mets hope both can transition over to the pro ball levels. He also was considered a solid runner, which could be vital for his continued transition from the high school infielder to one of the outfield positions long-term. 

As far as maturation, Morabito had an odd build at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds, Frangraphs’ said that he was projectionless because of it. Getting him into a proper regime that could help transform his body could not only make him a better, leaner prospect whose speed could work on the basepath and outfield, but it could help Morabito tap into his power more. 

Morabito intrigues me as a potential prospect of note moving forward. With another draft class and international class coming in over the next year, some of New York’s lottery tickets will have to show and prove. Nick Morabito could be a name that’s mentioned as one of New York’s better bats by the end of next season. 

2) NY Mets prospect who will breakout in 2023: Layonel Ovalles 

The Mets have several pitchers in their farm system, but they’re waiting for a few to develop. Matt Allan has dealt with numerous injuries, throwing his long-term future in flux, Blade Tidwell, a 2022 2nd-round pick, has the stuff to be New York’s best pitching prospect and Calvin Ziegler has slowly worked his way through the organization. For all the commotion at the top, New York has amassed several young intriguing pitching prospects. 

Few may be more intriguing than Layonel Ovalles. An international free agent from the 2019 class, Ovalles finished last season with 46.2 innings pitched, 66 strikeouts, and 17 walks between two levels at 19 years old. On the surface, Ovalles should enter the 2023 season as a potential starter for the St. Lucie Mets, with a chance to move quickly through the system if he continues to repeat his 2022 success. 

Ovalles can run it up to 97 with his fastball but sits around 94. The true value is his spin rates and just how fast he can ramp them up. Per Amazin Avenue, Ovalles can get his fastball up to 2535 RPM, a curveball that sits around 2800 RPM, and a sweeping slider that ranges between 2100 and 2700 RPM. All are considered above average for each pitch. For a 19-year-old, Ovalles can spin it and has a great fastball, both good starts for a high-level pitching prospect. 

Good pitchability and solid rotations on his pitches carried Ovalles to A-ball, but we’ll get more data with more time in A-ball. Suppose he can maintain the success, keep the spin rate data similar, and most importantly, add another mile or two to the fastball. In that case, we could be looking at a 20-year-old Ovalles as one of the better pitching prospects in the organization, on the steps to Double-A.