Mets prospect Kevin Parada: 2 reasons for concern and 2 reasons for optimism

The New York Mets had many players experience down performances in 2023. Many of those struggles came from key players that the team relied upon the most to win games and stay on pace with the Atlanta Braves as they did in 2022. On the offensive end, those struggles were highlighted by the decline in batting averages including Pete Alonso going from .271 to .217, Starling Marte from .292 to .248, and Jeff McNeil from .326 to .270. On the pitching end, the most notable ERA climbs were Adam Ottavino from 2.06 to 3.21, David Peterson from 3.83 to 5.03, and Drew Smith from 3.33 to 4.15.

These statistics represent how volatile batting averages, power numbers, and pitching metrics can be from year to year. Suffice it to say, players are only human and are going to have better seasons than others. The same can be said for minor league prospects as they mature both as baseball players and from their teenage years into grown men. Kevin Parada has experienced this volatile nature as he matures beyond his collegiate career. Though his statistics in the minor leagues have not been impressive, there are signs he is making adjustments that have helped enhance his game. In particular, which reasons should the Mets have to be concerned and what trends have them optimistic about the young catcher's development in 2024?

First reason for concern: the offensive numbers are mediocre.

Parada has been considered a top draft prospect on the MLB Pipeline since graduating from high school in 2020. He was ranked 48th on MLB Pipeline's top 100 but went undrafted out of Loyola High School in Pasadena, California, because of his commitment to the Georgia Institute of Technology. Though he went undrafted, the 19-year-old catcher proved scouts correct in their evaluations. In 2 seasons at Georgia Tech, Parada played in 112 games and hit .341 with 35 home runs and 130 RBI. Parada earned his signing bonus when he was later selected by the Mets in the first round of the 2022 draft.

There was confusion surrounding Billy Eppler's decision to draft a catcher given Francisco Alvarez's ascent to a top-five prospect in all of baseball. Regardless of the circumstance, the Mets' front office was committed to selecting the best available prospect at 11th overall. In MLB Pipeline's top 100, Parada was ranked 6th because of his raw power ability to all ends of the field. Scouts described the 21-year-old as a potential .280-.300 hitter with 20-25 home runs, which would make him at least a designated hitter option for the Mets in the future.

Parada has yet to replicate his collegiate success since entering professional baseball in 2022. Last season in 105 games between High-A Brooklyn and AA Binghamton, Parada hit .248 with 14 home runs and 54 RBI. While he showed good plate discipline recording 36 walks, he also struck out an alarming 126 times. While he only played 14 games in Binghamton, he hit .185 with 23 strikeouts. For Parada to reach his full offensive potential, he must have a more respectable batting average against lesser competition in the minor leagues.

Second reason for concern: Parada's defensive limitations.

Catchers arguably play the most difficult position in baseball. For starters, the physicality of being a catcher entails blocking pitches, taking foul balls off of chest and knee protectors, and throwing back to the mound after each pitch. Backstops are also asked to memorize the pitch selection of every arm in the rotation and bullpen as well as the tendencies of opposing batters. The catcher relays signs from the dugout back to the pitcher and position players. On top of all this, catchers are relied upon to provide offense.

Suffice it to say, hall of fame catchers may possess the most impressive accolade in Major League Baseball. Due to the difficulty of being a backstop, many of these players take longer to develop both their offensive and defensive abilities. For instance, Yadier Molina did not become a .300 hitter and win his first gold glove until his 5th major league season in 2009. J.T. Realmuto did not become a top catcher on both ends until his 3rd season when he hit .303 and threw out 35 percent of base stealers. Heck, it took until Travis d'Arnaud signed with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019 to find his full potential.

This is not to say Parada will become a Hall of Famer or even an all-star. His defense is of concern to the Mets as the 21-year-old only threw out 18 percent of base stealers last season. Parada's receiving is also a work in progress, though it improved with experience in 2023. Drafted as an offensive-minded catcher, Parada's best-case scenario is a DH/C platoon with Alvarez in 2025. However, catchers deserve patience as the evidence shows they take longer to develop than other position players.

Second reason for optimism: the offensive numbers at Maimonides Park are historically bad.

From watching baseball all of our lives, we know every ballpark has different characteristics that favor either offense, defense, or pitching. The Mets have historically hit better on the road since Citi Field opened in 2009. We remember David Wright's home run total falling from 33 in 2008 to just 10 in 2009. We also recall Curtis Granderson's struggles without the short porch of Yankee Stadium in 2014. While the splits are not as drastic since the outfield fences have been moved multiple times in the mid-to-late 2010s, Citi Field is still a pitcher's ballpark.

The minor leagues have this difference as well, except it is not due to the dimensions of a ballpark. The Pacific Coast League in AAA is known for its home runs because of the difference in air thickness and altitude playing in Las Vegas as opposed to New York. However, Maimonides Park has the opposite effect as the wind pattern off the coast of Coney Island prevents many home runs from being hit.

While Parada's home run total was just 14 at High-A Brooklyn, there is optimism from the Mets that playing at Mirabito Stadium in Binghamton will correct his approach. The drop in offensive totals in Brooklyn is not just singular to Parada. In 2021, Ronny Mauricio hit .222 with 7 home runs in Brooklyn, while also hitting .275 with 13 home runs on the road. Furthermore, Alvarez hit .225 with 11 home runs in Brooklyn, while hitting .313 with 13 home runs on the road. Even Brett Baty in 2021 hit just .217 with 2 home runs in Brooklyn while slugging .366 with 5 home runs on the road. For this reason, evaluators believe Parada will have an increase in production playing at Mirabito Stadium.