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Ranking the options for the final spot in the postseason rotation
The New York Mets will go as far as their starting pitching takes them. This team is built with the intention of having two of the best five pitchers in the game anchoring the rotation. The opposition beating the Mets in a seven game series where Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer pitch two times each seems hard to imagine.
With the way things have gone this season, who knows if they will be healthy. deGrom just got back in August after missing 13 months due to various injuries. Scherzer missed seven weeks earlier this season with an oblique injury and seems to have re-aggrivated that same side and found himself on the IL once again.
In a perfect world, Scherzer and deGrom would start the first two games. The third game would be started by Chris Bassitt. The last rotation spot is very up in the air. There are three strong candidates for one spot which is a great problem to have.
3) Ranking the options for the final spot in the postseason rotation: Taijuan Walker
For much of the first half, Taijuan Walker pitched like an all-star. I felt he was the biggest Met snub on a team that had a couple of guys who were very worthy of making an appearance.
Walker was an all-star last season as well before collapsing in the second half and being one of the worst pitchers in baseball. This season I thought would be different because he finally got through a full season in 2021, but so far I've been wrong.
In the second half of this season, Walker has posted a 6.25 ERA in eight starts. Much of that is from his outing against the Braves where he allowed eight runs in one inning of work but he hasn't been the same guy he was in the first half.
Something Walker excelled in during the first half of the season was keeping the ball in the ballpark. He allowed just four home runs in 91.2 innings pitched. In the second half, he's already allowed seven home runs in 36 innings pitched.
This is a similar pattern to last season's second half collapse as Walker allowed six home runs in 94.2 first half innings last season only to allow 20 longballs in 61.2 second half innings.
Walker's strikeouts are down from 7.2 K/9 to 5.8 K/9 and his WHIP has shot up from 1.091 to 1.583.
He simply has not pitched well down the stretch and after last season I am not willing to risk him starting a playoff game especially when the Mets have two other really solid options.
2) Ranking the options for the final spot in the postseason rotation: David Peterson
What David Peterson has done this season is so impressive. He's been going up and down from Syracuse making spot starts for the Mets and even working out of the bullpen and has been very effective.
Peterson has had the best season of his career so far, going 7-3 with a 3.32 ERA in 21 appearances (17 starts). He's featured a wipeout slider that has generated a 47.3% whiff rate. For reference, Jacob deGrom's slider has a 53.6% whiff rate and Edwin Diaz's slider has generated a 53.9% whiff rate. Peterson's slider has been elite.
Peterson has pitched extremely well all season for the Mets and deserves a permanent rotation spot. He most definitely should be in the 2023 rotation. However, I think there are still some things that push me away from choosing him over the final candidate for the postseason rotation.
Peterson has walked 3.9 batters per nine. This is slightly better than his career 4.0 mark, but still not good. In the postseason if you walk hitters, those teams are much more likely to take advantage.
Peterson has done a great job with RISP, limiting the opposition to a .530 OPS in those situations. However, once again, I believe good teams can take advantage. His 1.305 WHIP isn't horrible, but baserunners create the chances for the opposition to score.
Another thing that works against Peterson is his inexperience. He's made just 41 career starts and has already worked more innings this season than he has in any other season in his major league career.
The Mets are fortunate enough to have veterans who have made postseason starts before who they can turn to.
Peterson has had an excellent year and wouldn't be a bad option, he's just not my first choice.
1) Ranking the options for the final spot in the postseason rotation: Carlos Carrasco
Carlos Carrasco's Mets tenure got off to a rough start last season. He missed much of the campaign with a torn hamstring and I believe he was rushed back and did not pitch well at all.
This season has been another story. He has looked a lot like the Carlos Carrasco the Mets traded for alongside Francisco Lindor.
Outside of a rough start in St. Louis and a horrible month of June, Carrasco has been a consistent mid-rotation level starter for much of the season.
Carrasco has allowed three earned runs or less in 19 of his 24 starts. He's given the Mets a great chance to win most of the time that he pitches, and they've won 15 of his starts because of that.
Overall, Carrasco has gone 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA in 24 starts. His 3.64 FIP suggests he's gotten rather unlucky as well.
Peterson has out-pitched Carrasco slightly, but I'd lean with the experience and the guy who doesn't walk many. Carrasco has made three career postseason starts so he knows what it's like to pitch in a crazy atmosphere.
Next. Ranking the 10 worst contracts in the National League East. dark