4) Luis Severino
Quintana in all likelihood is going to have to step up and be the team's second starter, and there's a decent chance Severino is going to slot in right behind him. Yup, it's that bad. If the season started tomorrow, Severino would probably pitch the third game of the season behind Senga and Quintana. We hope the Mets sign a better starter, but there aren't many good options left.
We know that when Severino is on the top of his game, he can be really good. He was a Cy Young finalist in 2017 and finished ninth in AL Cy Young balloting in 2018. The problem is, those two seasons are the only ones in his eight-year career in which he's been both healthy and productive. That's going to have to change if the 2024 Mets are going to make noise.
Severino was a disaster in 2023. He missed substantial time and had an ERA of 6.65 for the Yankees. Sure, it'd be hard for him to be worse, but the Mets need him to show legitimate upside if they want to be considered a postseason threat.
We know Senga will be good. We believe Quintana will be solid. Adrian Houser and one of Tylor Megill, Jose Butto, and Joey Lucchesi are fine back-end options, but they're not good enough to be third starters. If the Mets are good in 2024, chances are Severino is both healthy and pitching pretty well. He doesn't have to be a Cy Young finalist, but he does have to be closer to the guy he was in 2022 when he had a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts. If they're bad, chances are Severino got hurt and/or continued to pitch the way he did in 2023.