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4 Mets players who could be the difference between success and failure in 2024
These players can be considered X-Factors for the 2024 Mets.
The New York Mets will enter the 2024 season without many expectations. Sure, fans expect them to maybe win a little bit more. but considering the fact that they won just 75 games this past season that shouldn't be hard. The Mets don't have the 'World Series or bust' expectations surrounding them this season that made the 2023 campaign an absolute nightmare.
If the Mets are good, that'll be a surprise based on how they've operated this offseason. The only star we've seen them aggressively pursue is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They seem content to build this the right way instead of seeking shortcuts which is a nice change of pace from what we've seen in the past.
Expectations are low, but that doesn't mean this Mets team is incapable. There is still tons of talent on this team and if these players step up, they could be among the teams ocmpeting for a playoff spot. If not, it might be another long year in Flushing.
1) Jeff McNeil
A large portion of the 2023 Mets roster regressed, but not many regressed harder than Jeff McNeil who went from a batting champion to barely noticeable. His batting average dipped by over 50 points, and his OPS dipped by 125 points. McNeil went from one of the best hitters in the National League in 2022 to posting a 96 OPS+ in 2023.
His overall numbers weren't terrible, and he did finish strongly. However, the Mets needed a lot more from McNeil last season and will need more from him this upcoming year if they're going to be competitive. His .270 average was far too low for a hitter who relies so much on slapping singles all over the diamond, and his drop-off in doubles going from 39 to 25 was pretty alarming as well.
We can safely assume the trio of Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso are going to produce in a big way. Unfortunately, that's only three of nine. Adding another all-star season out of McNeil makes it four players pitchers have to worry about. It can't be overstated how badly this team needs Jeff McNeil to go back to being the player who was competing for batting titles.
2) Jose Quintana
The Mets were fixated on bringing Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Queens because the team desperately needed to add another frontline starter to pair with Kodai Senga. With Yamamoto a Dodger and there being virtually no chance the team brings Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery aboard, Senga is going to have to lead the way without much help.
Mets fans trust Senga to shoulder the load, but the rotation after him leaves a whole lot to be desired. There's a very good chance Jose Quintana will have to step up and be the team's second starter. That's not what he signed on for, but with little reason to believe another high-end starter is coming, Quintana is going to have to step up in a big way.
Now, if he pitched the way he did when healthy in 2023, the Mets will be fine. Quintana, with his late-season starts against the Phillies as the lone exceptions, pitched wonderfully for the Mets down the stretch. They virtually never scored for him, but he was able to go toe-to-toe with whoever he was matched up against and keep the Mets in games.
Instead of him being the team's fourth or fifth starter which was the expectation last season, Quintana is going to have to pitch well consistently for the Mets to be competitive thanks to the rest of the rotation being subpar. Mets fans can only hope that the 34-year-old is up for the challenge.
3) Starling Marte
In 2022, Starling Marte was in many ways an X-Factor for the Mets. He was the perfect number two hitter behind Brandon Nimmo and in front of Francisco Lindor. He kept the line moving, hit for power, and even played better than expected in the field. His injury led to the team taking a bit of a step back in September. The Mets desperately need Marte to return back to his 2022 all-star form.
This past season was a disaster for him. Marte had just a .625 OPS, was clearly playing hurt for most, if not the entire season, and never looked close to the same player. For the Mets to be good, they need him to be a lot closer to the 2022 version.
The Mets click when Marte is swinging a good bat out of the two-hole. He's a right-handed bat they can put behind Nimmo, and has the speed to score from first base on an extra-base hit from the team's big boppers in Lindor and Alonso. He can distract a pitcher by being an elite threat to steal while their best players are hitting.
If Marte struggles, the Mets would be forced to rely on the bottom of the order which is incredibly weak. We hope they add a left fielder and a DH, but that hasn't happened yet. The Mets would have to rely a lot more on guys like Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez if Marte struggled, which would not be ideal.
Expecting Marte to play 140+ games at an all-star level at age 35 is probably unrealistic, but the Mets need him to be on the field more than he was in 2023, and be the player they saw him be in 2022. The Mets simply cannot rely on players like Tyrone Taylor and DJ Stewart for a large portion of the year.
4) Luis Severino
Quintana in all likelihood is going to have to step up and be the team's second starter, and there's a decent chance Severino is going to slot in right behind him. Yup, it's that bad. If the season started tomorrow, Severino would probably pitch the third game of the season behind Senga and Quintana. We hope the Mets sign a better starter, but there aren't many good options left.
We know that when Severino is on the top of his game, he can be really good. He was a Cy Young finalist in 2017 and finished ninth in AL Cy Young balloting in 2018. The problem is, those two seasons are the only ones in his eight-year career in which he's been both healthy and productive. That's going to have to change if the 2024 Mets are going to make noise.
Severino was a disaster in 2023. He missed substantial time and had an ERA of 6.65 for the Yankees. Sure, it'd be hard for him to be worse, but the Mets need him to show legitimate upside if they want to be considered a postseason threat.
We know Senga will be good. We believe Quintana will be solid. Adrian Houser and one of Tylor Megill, Jose Butto, and Joey Lucchesi are fine back-end options, but they're not good enough to be third starters. If the Mets are good in 2024, chances are Severino is both healthy and pitching pretty well. He doesn't have to be a Cy Young finalist, but he does have to be closer to the guy he was in 2022 when he had a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts. If they're bad, chances are Severino got hurt and/or continued to pitch the way he did in 2023.
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