4 players to blame for the Mets falling behind the Braves in the NL East

2. New York Mets DH Daniel Vogelbach is watching the opposition pound him (and Billy Eppler) in the strike zone.

The Mets, rightfully, prided themselves on plate discipline and not striking out last year. That was a big reason why they were so successful offensively. So when Billy Eppler acquired Daniel Vogelbach from the Pittsburgh Pirates last year, Eppler though this would be the Mets' solution to their left-handed DH problem left behind by Robinson Cano and Dominic Smith.

And in isolation, Vogelbach was pretty good, batting .255 with a .393 on-base percentage and had an OPS+ of 138, blowing away his career averages.

However, Daniel Vogelbach was brought in to swing the bat, and his swing rate of 32.2 percent is the lowest in the majors since coming over from Pittsburgh. This season alone, that swing rate is 31.6 percent, 2.4 percentage points lower than the next lowest (Juan Soto at 34.0 percent as of Saturday), while he looks at 44.5 percent of strikes, which is the highest in the majors. And he has as many strikeouts looking as swinging strikeouts. Vogelbach is not giving the Mets what they need, and that's power hitting.

And he is regressed, as a result, to his numbers in Seattle, where he was a low average hitter and a slightly below average hitter. Yet Billy Eppler and the front office keep insisting that Buck Showalter put him in the lineup when they face a right-handed starting pitcher. And Eppler gave up a solid relief pitcher in Colin Holderman, who is turning into one of the best setup guys in baseball, in the trade. Holderman has been much better this season than the current Mets' setup guy, which I discuss on the next slide.

3. Adam Ottavino has not been nearly as sharp for the New York Mets in 2023 as he was in 2022.

The Mets struck gold last season when they brought in Adam Ottavino to be their setup man, as he was one of the most effective late inning relievers in baseball. Ottavino posted a 2.06 ERA in 65.2 innings last year, making the bridge to Edwin Diaz look easy.

This year, it has been a different story for Ottavino, who re-signed with the team for what was essentially a $3 million pay raise. His ERA has more than doubled to 4.58, and much of it is because his other stats from last year have been worse. Walks, home runs, and batting average against are all up, while strikeouts are down.

Additionally, his velocities on three of his four pitches (his sinker, changeup, and slider) are all down by about 1 mph each, and his sweeper is not breaking as hard horizontally as it was last season.

But with the Edwin Diaz injury, Ottavino's performance has gone much more into the microscope because of how critical he is to the Mets success.

The Mets probably felt the loss of Diaz in that bullpen more in the opener of the Tigers series at the start of the month on May 3, where Ottavino entered the game with a lead in the eighth inning and then blew it, with the big blow being hitting Javier Baez on a 1-2 pitch on a sinker that didn't sink enough, leading to an opportunity for Detroit to win that game.

That was the one loss the Mets had when leading after seven innings so far this season, and if there was any loss the Mets would have loved to have back, that was the game, because it was the first of 13 straight games against teams with sub-.500 records, a stretch the Mets went an unacceptable 4-9 in, and the ebb and flow of this team didn't sit well with fans during that brutal sequence.

And remember, it was the Mets' inability to beat up on the second division opponents that cost them last year, and it could cost them again this year.

4. David Peterson is the main culprit behind the Mets' pitching struggles in 2023.

Peterson's 2023 season has been both bad and puzzling at the same time. It is bad in these terms: Entering Sunday's action, among 131 starting pitchers that have thrown 30 or more innings, Peterson's 8.08 ERA and .404 BABIP ranked highest and second highest, respectively. Peterson has been getting hit hard all year.

Peterson has also not been able to get out of innings unscathed, as opponents have batted .377 against him with one or two outs and .429 with two outs and runners in scoring position. As a result, he hasn't shown any sort of confidence in himself when he is on the hill, and is not going after hitters like he did last year or spring training.

Speaking of spring training, he was terrific this spring in Port St. Lucie, not allowing a run in 12 innings of work before the season started, which makes Peterson's poor regular season so confusing. What is also crazy is that Peterson has struck out nearly 25 percent of his batters and walked just 7.7 percent of them. So it's not like he's walking the world and control is an issue. But the bottom line is situational pitching has not been Peterson's thing this season, and it has cost him dearly.

So Peterson's poor season has him in the minor leagues for the foreseeable future as he seeks to regain trust in his stuff. By the way, he gave up four runs in 4.2 innings for Triple-A Syracuse on Saturday. Not exactly promising, either.