3 NY Mets players who will be better in 2024, 2 who will be worse

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What does your crystal ball tell you about the 2024 New York Mets? Shine it long enough and it may reveal which three players will be better in 2024 and which two are going to have a worse season.

Or maybe you don’t have a crystal ball and you’re just going to go with your gut feeling.

Not up for discussion are any players who have “nowhere to go but up” or “nowhere to go but down.” Case in point: Luis Severino was so bad last year with the New York Yankees he can’t possibly look worse. Edwin Diaz didn’t even play! They have nowhere to go but up. Kodai Senga, despite beginning the year on the IL, was so amazingly terrific he could have a worse season and still be an All-Star yet again. It’s too easy to expect him to not be as good.

Francisco Alvarez will make huge improvements in 2024

Francisco Alvarez has already been anointed by many fans as one of the best catchers in baseball. Not quite. As electric as he is, the .209/.284/.437 slash line left a lot to be desired. The power is for real. However, Alvarez has plenty to work on. His league leading 8 passed balls and a low 13% of attempted base stealers caught are two of the obvious weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball.

One could say he is a case of “things can only get better.” But that’s not the reason. Alvarez has continually seen his numbers dip a lot upon a promotion. Not uncommon, there are a lot of conclusions to come to. When he went from hitting .277/.368/.553 in Double-A and then turned in a .234/.382/.443 performance in Triple-A back in 2022, was it because he wasn’t ready or was the midseason change in environment throwing him off his game?

Needless to say, Alvarez showed enough in 2024 for the Mets to guarantee him the starting catcher gig this year yet again. He’s a hard worker. Something as non-baseball related as learning English proves it.

Alvarez might not have the equivalent improvement of hitting .247 in High-A and then batting .277 in Double-A the next season like he did previously. A jump in batting average from a lowly .209, however, seems likely to occur.

The key may be getting off to a good start. The grind of a full season might be one explanation to why he has started off hot and fallen following promotions. Last year’s second half with the Mets proved this as a possibility. Batting just .174/.270/.343 in 196 plate appearances, he was a much less dangerous threat in the lineup.

Jake Diekman will be much more average than his time with Tampa Bay

You can’t teach an old dog new tricks unless of course you’re a member of the Tampa Bay Rays coaching staff. Pitching at age 36 last year, Jake Diekman had an incredible output as a member of the Rays. In 45.1 innings he was 0-1 with a 2.18 ERA. Still wild and not near his best strikeout rate, Diekman relied heavily on soft contact. A hard hit percentage of only 26% helped highlight his success.

Relievers like Diekman are impossible to predict. His lifetime 3.82 ERA comes from several extremes. His time with the Chicago White Sox resulted in a 7.04 ERA in 30.2 innings spanning parts of two seasons. The peak of his career, spent with the Texas Rangers, awarded him with a 3.18 ERA in 124.1 innings of work.

Which version do the Mets get?

Other than his stint with the Rays last year, Diekman hasn’t had a full season with an ERA below his career total since 2018. An ERA in the 4.00s wouldn’t be outrageous to expect from him. Despite the brilliance at preventing runs last year, he did still walk 5 batters per 9 during his time in Tampa Bay.

Diekman will be a good number two lefty in the bullpen. He’s not going to be like Aaron Loup in 2021.

Pete Alonso will step up amid rumors and contract talks

Pete Alonso had a down year in 2023 even though it was still one of the more productive campaigns he put together. The second most home runs of his career and third most RBI helped keep him as one of the most relevant power hitters in the game. Possibly rushing back too quickly from a hand injury in the summer cost him some points in the batting average and OBP department. Who really cares when a guy is ripping 46 home runs and driving in 118?

Alonso’s advanced batting numbers profile why things didn’t go his way. The exit velocity was at a career-low 89.5 mph. Naturally, the hard hit percentage followed at another low of 40.1%. A career low in line drive percentage and high in fly balls explains why he was still able to hit a lot of home runs and yet not find too many other hits.

The Polar Bear also saw his strikeout rate go up against, but not at the level of his first two seasons. It’s not much of a concern.

Amid the upcoming rumors of a possible trade and/or free agency, Alonso will have a ton of pressure on his shoulders to be worth every prospect or penny. Does he go the Michael Conforto route and slump or follow in Aaron Judge’s footsteps and put together a historic season?

Alonso had only one month last year where he hit over .230—the first month of the season. Now a lifetime .251 hitter, the .217 he batted last year is still far too low and not what we should anticipate from him in 2024. The pressure of trying to carry the team might’ve been a partial cause as to why he rushed himself back to the field and the poor results that followed. Always able to hit for power and find ways to drive in runs, we can count on him to have an objectively better overall season, too.

Adam Ottavino won’t be as reliable out of the bullpen

The season Adam Ottavino had for the Mets in 2023 might compare to what Pete Alonso did. The 3.21 ERA definitely looks good. However, the 1-7 record immediately jumps out. How does a setup man/closer end up with that many losses? From the early blown save against the Milwaukee Brewers through the end of the year, Ottavino had a tendency to come up small in big moments.

Hips don’t lie and neither does FIP. His was at 4.52 last year. An average of 9 strikeouts per 9 (his lowest since 2013) is one reason for it. So is the increase in walks from 2.2 per 9 in 2022 to 4.2 in 2023.

Ottavino is no doubt a reliever the Mets could afford to have on their roster in 2024. He has been too reliable for them in two consecutive years. His first year was remarkably good and somewhat underrated when we have to look at him in comparison to Edwin Diaz.

Steady for much of his career, Ottavino is destined to show his age eventually. He has tossed 60+ innings in each of the last three seasons. Health has been on his side and that’s a major positive. No one anticipates he’ll be anything like he was in 2022 and after what we saw in 2023, we shouldn’t expect him to match those totals either. He’ll be good but as good.

Consistent at-bats will give Mark Vientos some powerful numbers

At the very least, Mark Vientos should be able to hit a lot of home runs for the Mets. Any other result than to power the team to a lead every once in a while will have them moving on from him entirely by the time we get to 2025. A clear graduate of Triple-A after slashing .306/.387/.612 with 16 home runs in only 269 plate appearances last year, all Vientos needs are consistent at-bats to show how good he is.

Vientos may not reveal himself to be a good enough hitter for the Mets to keep around. In fact, if the team is able to pick up Juan Soto in free agency next offseason, there doesn’t seem to be as much of a need for Vientos. Between Soto, Brandon Nimmo, and an onslaught of Mets prospects who’ll play the outfield, they may need the DH spot to remain a little more revolving.

Fortunately for the Mets, Vientos should be able to win back some trade value if all they do is give him those opportunities. Held back early on last year upon his first promotion, it wasn’t until the end of the year when he was a regular. August was abysmal but September showed some promise. Vientos slashed .230/.280/.460 in the final month with 6 of his 9 home runs. Still a strikeout machine, it’s a quality any team will have to accept with him around.

Vientos shouldn’t have the longest of leashes if the Mets are trying to compete. By the end of May, if they give him a fair chance, we should know what he is. Probably not good enough to be the everyday DH, he’ll undoubtedly improve upon what he has done in the past.

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