3 NY Mets free agent pitching targets they could sign to one-year deals

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The New York Mets have given us more clarity on their plan for the 2024 rotation. The front office will make every effort to sign Yamamoto now that Steven Cohen and David Stearns have traveled to Japan to meet with the young phenom. Even if the Mets sign Yamamoto, this is just one arm for a ballclub that needs multiple. Currently, the Mets have 3 locks for the rotation: Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and Luis Severino. Quite simply put, this is not enough for a 162-game schedule.

At the Winter Meetings, Stearns had commented regarding Yamamoto, "If we don't get him, we'll adjust and go down alternate paths". We can interpret these comments in a multitude of manners, but the alternative path is likely a rotation built around short-term deals with an eye toward the 2024-25 free agency period. Assuming that is the case, which starting pitching options are still available on a one-year contract?

1. Jack Flaherty

Jack Flaherty can be best described as the St. Louis Cardinals version of Noah Syndergaard- he came up to the majors with a boom but could never stay healthy enough to reach his ceiling. In his first full season in 2018, Flaherty pitched to a 3.34 ERA in 28 starts and 151 innings pitched. He would then follow that up in 2019 with a 2.75 ERA in 33 starts and 231 strikeouts in 196.1 innings pitched. Sounds familiar to 2015 and 2016 Syndergaard, right?

The correlation between the two former aces goes even deeper. Flaherty only made 32 starts between 2020 and 2022, missing time with repeated oblique and shoulder injuries. 2023 is the first time he has pitched a full season and has yet to regain his form from 2019. Last season, he pitched to a 4.99 ERA in 144.1 innings, splitting time between the Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles. Like Syndergaard with the Cleveland Guardians, Flaherty was pulled from the Orioles rotation before the season had even ended.

Though Flaherty did not pitch well in 2023, he is still a great low-cost high-reward candidate for a team that is seeking arms on short-term contracts. Still, at just 28 years old, there is a case to be made Flaherty can reinvent himself the way Bartolo Colon or C.C. Sabathia did later in their careers. The idea with Flaherty is the same as with Severino: we are not expecting an ace, but a solid starting pitcher that takes the ball every time out.

2. James Paxton

James Paxton has always shown flashes of ace-caliber potential but has never sustained it for a full season. In his first 7 seasons with the Seattle Mariners, Paxton pitched to a 3.42 ERA in 103 starts and 583.2 innings pitched. He was dealt to the New York Yankees before the 2019 season, where he found success pitching to a 3.82 ERA in 150.2 innings including 2 solid postseason performances.

Since then, however, Paxton has not pitched anywhere close to a full season. He has made 25 starts since 2020, pitching to a 4.90 ERA between the Yankees, Mariners, and Boston Red Sox. His only impressive statistic is 9.9 K/9 and only walked 41 batters during this span. Otherwise, Paxton has been a liability to remain healthy but showed flashes last season that he can still be quality.

Paxton is a candidate for a one-year contract most likely for less than what Luis Severino received in $13 million. An ideal contract would have performance incentive bonuses for innings pitched and starts. This would be like Michael Wacha's $3 million base salary in 2020 with incentives for innings pitched had 2020 been a 162-game season. It is worth exploring if Paxton could be a swing starter at this point in his career and his injury history. There have been success stories such as Mike Minor in finding a late-career role as a starter/reliever.

3. Hyun-Jin Ryu

Of the three pitchers, Ryu has the most consistent track record. Coming over to the United States from South Korea in 2013, Ryu spent his first 6 seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers. After undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2015, Ryu would come back to stardom, pitching to a 2.30 ERA in 56 starts between 2018-2020. He was Jacob deGrom's greatest competitor for the Cy Young Award in 2019, having pitched to a 2.32 ERA in 182.2 innings pitched.

Ryu has never been the same since the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season. He has only pitched one full season in 2021, where he had a 4.37 ERA in 169 innings pitched. He has only appeared in 17 games for the Blue Jays the past 2 seasons, though stabilizing himself with a solid 3.46 ERA in 2023. Unlike Flaherty or Paxton, Ryu has still been effective even since sustaining multiple injuries over the past few seasons. If the Mets were to target one of these choices, Ryu has the greatest potential to bounce back in 2024 given his effectiveness through 11 starts last season.

While no one-year contract candidate is selling season tickets, these are all low-risk for a team that just needs quality starts. With top-of-the-market names like Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell requesting multi-year contracts worth well over $100 million, the Mets may be inclined to balk at these options. The risk given their track records is that teams will pay for what they have already done, not for what they will do in the future. Next offseason will offer a better free agent pool with names the likes of Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, and Max Fried. If the Mets were to contend in 2025, the best move would be to look short-term aside from Yamamoto.

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3 Mets pitching targets they could sign to one-year deals

1. Jack Flaherty

2. James Paxton

3. Hyun-Jin Ryu

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