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5 Mets pitching prospects that can contribute in 2024

Which young arms should we pay attention to during Spring Training?

By James Malone |
SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game
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The New York Mets have had a quiet offseason through January. Their free agent signings have consisted of one-year contracts with the hopes of bounce-back performances from the likes of Harrison Bader and Luis Severino. Without interest in moving top prospects, their only trade of significance has been acquiring Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor from the Milwaukee Brewers for Coleman Crow. Much to Mets fans' ire, it seems the offseason could be completed with many underlying questions to be answered before opening day.

For the Mets to contend in 2024, they will be reliant on the young prospects at their disposal to perform well upon entering the major leagues. The most notable have been the position players led by Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, and Luisangel Acuna. While these players will draw the most attention, the team's biggest asset will come from the pitching side as many of their prospects are being undervalued for their performances in 2023. Furthermore, the trend in baseball has been the rise in expense to acquire quality pitching while drafting and developing young arms has become more difficult. With this in mind, if we had to create a 5-man rotation of just Mets prospects, who would be a part of that depth chart?

1. Christian Scott

A new pitcher has emerged as the most notable in the Mets' farm system. Drafted out of the University of Florida in the 5th round of 2021, Christian Scott has risen to become the Mets' top pitching prospect. Drafted as a relief pitcher, Scott has taken some time to adjust back to a starting role. Evaluators in the front office believe his 98 MPH fastball coupled with his Max Scherzer-created slider can propel his trajectory to becoming a number 3 starter by mid-season 2024. 

The Mets were proven correct in 2023 as Scott dominated across 19 starts with minor league affiliates Brooklyn and Binghamton, holding a 2.57 ERA across 87.2 innings pitched. He struck out 107 batters in that time with an impressive 12 walks and 63 hits allowed. These numbers were notable enough for PECOTA to list Scott as their 88th-best prospect out of the top 101. The only knock-on Scott has been his failure to this point in developing a third pitch he can trust. So far, he has been working on a changeup that improved dramatically in 2023. Should he enhance this pitch, Scott could become the biggest steal of the 2021 draft class.

2. Mike Vasil

The Mets have a history of taking arms later in the draft and developing them into solid major-league starters. This would be the hope for Mike Vasil, a 23-year-old right-handed pitcher selected in the 8th round of the 2021 draft. After struggling in collegiate ball for the University of Virginia, Vasil has reconfigured his repertoire well enough to earn himself recognition at the MLB Futures Game this past July. Vasil's fastball sits at an average of 92-95 MPH, but his spin rate is advanced at 2,300-2,500 RPM. His vertical slider and low-80 MPH curveball with great downward movement play well with his newly reworked 4-seam fastball.

Vasil is coming off an inconsistent 2023 campaign. He started the season at AA Binghamton, where he pitched to a 3.71 ERA across 51 innings with 57 strikeouts. While these stats are not eye-opening, his control was immense walking just 8 batters across 10 starts. This was enough to earn Vasil a promotion to AAA Syracuse where he had difficulty adapting to the new automated strike-zone. As a result, Vasil pitched to a 5.30 ERA across 73 innings with 38 walks and 81 strikeouts. Even though his numbers ballooned upon the promotion, this has been the trend across baseball as most pitchers struggled in AAA. Should Vasil recapture his form from AA, he could earn an early season promotion.

3. Blade Tidwell

The University of Tennessee is represented well in the Mets' farm system, and it's not secluded to just Gilbert. Drafted in the 2nd round of 2022, Blade Tidwell is a hard-throwing 22-year-old right-handed pitcher from the same program as Gilbert. His fastball sits in the mid-90s with immense movement up in the strike zone, while his mid-80s slider has become a great compliment. Tidwell is working on the vertical break to his upper-70s curveball and the sink to his low-80s changeup to give him a 4-pitch arsenal. Should these pitches continue to develop, Mets officials believe Tidwell could become better than just a back-to-mid rotation starter.

Tidwell is proving the evaluators correct, having thrown to a 3.57 ERA across 116 innings with 153 strikeouts between Brooklyn and Binghamton. While Tidwell struggled upon his promotion to AA, he finished the season strong helping Binghamton reach the playoffs. His only staggering statistic is the 63 walks allowed in 25 starts, though the control issues could be linked to fatigue from his first full minor league season. If Tidwell can refine his command from Single-A, he will become the Mets' most intriguing pitching prospect and could earn a September call-up in 2024.

4. Tyler Stuart

While the major league club's rotation struggled in 2023, the Brooklyn Cyclones were popping on all cylinders. Selected in the 6th round of the 2022 draft, Tyler Stuart led the Cyclones with a 1.55 ERA in 75.2 innings pitched and 84 strikeouts. For a long period, Stuart's ERA was the lowest in minor league baseball, earning him a promotion to AA Binghamton. From there, Stuart would pitch to a 3.60 ERA across 35 innings, striking out just 28 batters. His greatest asset is control, walking just 32 batters in all 110.2 innings pitched. As per Tidwell, this was Stuart's first full minor league season.

Stuart was drafted as a relief pitcher from the University of Mississippi but transitioned to a starting role with the Mets. His low-90s sinker produces many ground balls, which works well with the Mets' superb infield defense. Stuart compliments his sinker with a mid-90s fastball and a low-80s slider that has great sweeping action to it. Scouts believe the two-pitch mix will work best out of the bullpen, but there has been no sign Stuart cannot maintain his mid-rotation ceiling. Now 24 years old with AA experience, the Mets are confident Stuart can be a potential September call-up as well in 2024.

5. Dominic Hamel

Despite missing out on a first-round draft pick in 2021, the Mets struck gold in the rounds that proceeded. Selected in the 3rd round from Dallas Baptist University, 24-year-old right-hander Dominic Hamel is on the fast track to the Mets' rotation. Not known for his velocity, Hamel's arsenal features a fastball in the 91-94 MPH range with a low-80s slider and mid-70s curveball. What makes Hamel so intriguing is his spin rate, which clocks in at 2,800-3,000 RPM on his slider and 2,000 RPM on his curveball. Should Hamel make his debut in 2024, these spin rates would be among the most elite in the majors.

Furthermore, Hamel had an impressive 2023 season at AA Binghamton. Through 25 starts, Hamel pitched to a 3.85 ERA across 124 innings with 160 strikeouts and just 49 walks. Had Binghamton not been in the playoffs, Hamel would have been promoted to AAA, but the Mets preferred him to play in tougher competition for a title. His pitch arsenal has drawn comparisons to Seth Lugo, a starter and reliever the Mets have failed to duplicate. Now 24 years old with 2 full seasons of minor league experience, Hamel will be available to the Mets by mid-season 2024. Should his command continue to enhance with his great spin rates, there is no reason Hamel cannot remain a starting pitcher.

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