Pete Alonso is a candidate to follow the same trend as other Scott Boras clients next winter

Pete Alonso and Scott Boras shaking hands and teaming up a year before reaching free agency was a sign of the worst case scenario for New York Mets fans. Boras’ reputation already had fans convinced he’d go into free agency and have little chance of signing an extension.

With the way this offseason has gone for Boras clients, Alonso should have two thoughts in his head.

One is that he’ll definitely get paid a lot of money in 2025. The other is that wherever he does play in 2025 might not be where he’s at in 2026. Three of the big Boras clients only recently inked deals, none extending beyond three years and include opt-outs along the way.

How Mets first baseman Pete Alonso could fall into a similar group next offseason

Boras didn’t come away as a big loser this offseason. The player options are actually incredibly favorable. If Cody Bellinger reverts back to the way he was in his final years with the Los Angeles Dodgers, all he has to do is opt into his deal and the Chicago Cubs take one on the chin for a few seasons. Simple as that.

These three players do have something else in common aside from who they give a percentage of their paycheck to. Each turned down a qualifying offer from their ball club which absolutely had multiple clubs looking the other way. Teams like the Mets, more concerned about the future than present, never seemed to be a great match for them because of the punishment. The loss of draft picks and international bonus slot money was too much for them. A harsher execution because of where their payroll was last season, the Mets are trying to not get too insane with this year’s player salaries.

If Alonso does remain with the Mets and ends up rejecting the qualifying offer, the same fate could happen with him. A midseason trade which everyone is predicting if the Mets aren’t very good would take away the opportunity for a different club to issue a qualifying offer. However, with Jordan Montgomery in this boat this offseason and still unsigned himself, it’s not exactly the only reason why it took so long for these deals to happen.

Bellinger and Aaron Nola are the two players who rejected the qualifying offer that returned to their clubs. The situation with Nola and Alonso is most similar as each has had time as the best at their position in baseball with the homegrown aspect. It’s completely reasonable to see the Mets sign Alonso quickly next offseason as the Philadelphia Phillies did with Nola. Just as likely is for Alonso to end up dragged through the winter like other Boras clients.

Playing first base doesn’t help Alonso much. It’s often the position cited as one with some of the worst long-term deals. Albert Pujols. Ryan Howard. Chris Davis. They tend to drop off at varying degrees, sometimes to a level of where they aren’t even playable.

Alonso, as much as we love him, isn’t Freddie Freeman. Until proven otherwise, he’s not in the same category as Matt Olson either. Seeking a deal bigger than theirs will only result in the Polar Bear setting up shop somewhere temporarily. He’ll have a big AAV but the years have the potential to drop off greatly. Is it all on Boras or have baseball executives changed? It’s probably a little bit of both.