5 offseason predictions for the Mets

The MLB offseason has been on delay because of something called the playoffs. Unfortunately, the New York Mets don't know much about this topic.

The offseason is what we've been waiting for since early August. Once the Mets sold at the trade deadline, we knew those final two months would be more exhibition than anything else. A few promising players came out of those late battles. Mostly, we just wanted to fast forward. Meaningful baseball was missed.

Before the offseason gets underway, fans of all shapes and sizes get their shot at making predictions. How many of these predictions end up coming true? Here’s my stab at five things I expect to come true.

1) The Mets will sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the second biggest contract in franchise history

Francisco Lindor is the only player in Mets history to get a deal over $300 million. He's actually the only one to get over $200 as well. The Mets haven't completely tipped the scales with the payroll. Under Steve Cohen, they've opted for high AAV and short contracts.

This will change with the signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Mets are going to need to go over the $200 million mark to land him. They will and the fans will celebrate having him at the top of the rotation alongside Kodai Senga.

Yamamoto has become the most prized starting pitcher free agent this offseason due to a mix of talent and age. He doesn’t turn 26 until next August. An opportunity like this doesn’t come around too often.

Fans have turned their heads away from the idea of signing Shohei Ohtani due to the unreasonable contract demands and lack of presence on the mound he’ll have in 2024. We’ll still accept it, but he’s not the primary target. It’s Yamamoto. The Mets will deliver on this one and with the second-highest contract in franchise history.

2) The Mets won't extend Pete Alonso and the conversation goes on hold

Not every prediction is going to be a good one. In this case, it has to do with Pete Alonso and his contract situation. There’s a whole lot of uncertainty about where he fits into the Mets’ plans. It makes sense only to keep him. But what if he wants a ridiculous amount of money not even Steve Cohen will sign off on paying?

Alonso won’t get traded this offseason, but he also won’t have a new contract. The conversation will go on hold and this story about what happens next with Alonso is going to grind against our hearts for the entirety of the 2023 season.

Alonso changing agents and selecting Scott Boras was a big sign of his willingness to test free agency. He probably will and even if he does there’s a good chance he remains with the Mets. Let’s not forget Brandon Nimmo was cut loose last season only to return in early December on his brand new deal.

It’s not terribly uncommon for contract negotiations, as obvious as the solution may seem, to drag out. The Mets aren’t the only guilty ones. The New York Yankees let Aaron Judge get to free agency without an extension. Alonso will make it through at least this offseason without a new deal. As for arbitration, the two sides will come to an agreement and there won’t be too much bad blood.

4) The Mets will sign Jordan Hicks

It’s a youth movement in Queens. Jordan Hicks is a young free agent who just turned 27 in September. Coming off of a productive season and more so a nice finish with the Toronto Blue Jays following a trade from the St. Louis Cardinals, he seems to be exactly what the Mets bullpen could use.

Control has been Hicks’ downfall for much of his career. The hard-throwing righty can strike batters out but the velocity has him at an average of 4.9 walks per 9 in his career. He reached a new level of excellence this past year, lowering his walk rate from the career totals and posting a personal best 11.1 strikeouts per 9.

Hicks has some of the tools to be a closer. While he has saved games at times, his inconsistencies have held him back from taking the next step. He’d be worth a multi-year deal because of his age. The Mets have had relievers going in and out of the roster quickly. It’s about time someone with talent stuck around. Hicks looks capable.

He becomes even more important to the team if Adam Ottavino opts out. It would leave the Mets with only Brooks Raley and Edwin Diaz as bullpen arms we can trust. Hicks is far too tempting of a free agent target to pass on. Will David Stearns and the new Mets general manager agree?

5) The Mets will trade Mark Vientos in a package for a relief pitcher

The end of wondering where Mark Vientos fits into the plan will come this offseason. He doesn’t fit into the plan. The Mets will trade him in a package for a relief pitcher. It won’t be one with the most impressive resumes. Someone in his mid or late 20s with talent but not so much the numbers to back it up.

Vientos has done very little at the major league level. Outside of hitting for some power late in 2023, his bat has suffered when moved beyond Triple-A. His lack of position feeds into the idea of trading him even more. He’s not good enough to be the full-time DH. First base is locked up. His glove is too weak to play anywhere else. What else can the Mets do other than trade him?

A team with more patience or at least an opening at first base could look to buy Vientos at a minimal cost. Meanwhile, the Mets should be looking to sell him before all value is lost. Because he is a right-handed hitter, he’d only ever become the lesser half of a platoon who can mash lefties.

We’ve been there and done that before. Let Vientos figure it out somewhere else. The Mets have little need for a player with no position.