Grading every major Mets move on the road to the 2024 season

Adam Ottavino returning to the Mets may not be a good idea

The Mets appear to have made a good deal with Adam Ottavino after he declined an option for the 2024 season, only to end up signing for a lower contract value. However, despite this savings in payroll for the Mets, signing this reliever is not a good idea.

Ottavino presented a significant regression in 2023 that could be the beginning of a debacle in his career, given his age and length of service. After posting a reasonable ERA of 3.21 with a WHIP of 1.22 in 61.2 innings pitched, it seems that Ottavino did not have such a disastrous year, but the metrics indicate otherwise.

His hard-hit contact allowed is the second highest of his career, with 40.7%, only surpassed by the short season of 2020. Added to this is that the contact of his opponents is the highest of his career since his debut while the swing% of hitters has decreased, which indicates that Ottavino's ability to deceive has considerably reduced, and this can be seen in the drop in the percentage of his strikes derived from the swing and miss generated.

The velocity of practically all of his pitches has decreased while the batting and slugging average of his main pitches, sinker, and sweeper, have increased in 2023. The above added to his age indicates a worrying pitcher profile that could harm the bullpen of the Mets this season.