Grading every major Mets move on the road to the 2024 season

The New York Mets made a radical change in their approach this offseason. After being one of the most aggressive teams in the market the past two seasons, led by David Stearns, the team has preferred to take a break and invest in evaluating and enhancing internal talent.

Despite having struggled to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto this offseason as one of the most aggressive teams behind Japanese talent, the rest of the moves turned out to be complementary to the current roster. Observing each signing and acquisition, we graded every Mets move this offseason.

Steve Cohen finally got David Stearns

The tone of the offseason started high for the Mets organization when they achieved the signing of David Stearns as their new President of Baseball Operations for the team. Stearns, a Mets fan since childhood, had been on the radar of Steve Cohe and the organization for years.

Stearns as POBO is arguably the most important move in the Mets organization's recent past. The young baseball executive is not only highly valued in the industry but has been a successful baseball operations manager in his time with the Milwaukee Brewers.

For fans, it is possible to find no bright spots in having Stearns directing the team's baseball operations because this offseason has not been explosive like the previous ones, but his hiring is a resounding success. Organizations do not change overnight, and in the case of the Mets, this move is the best since Steve Cohen bought the team because it generates a positive moving forward vision for the rest of the league.

The identification and player development of the organizations' internal players, the development of the pitching lab, and the composition of a more financially sustainable roster for the future are the keys to Stearns' success that will quickly translate into positive change for the Mets. Cohen struck gold when he acquired Stearns, and we'll likely all be grateful to him after a couple of seasons.

Luis Severino could be the best move made by the Mets this offseason

Luis Severino is one of the most intriguing signings this offseason by the Mets. The former New York Yankees starter is coming off a disastrous season with the Bronx team, where he posted an ERA of 6.65 in 8 outings with a worrying WHIP of 1.65.

Despite the regression presented in 2023 and his health problems, some factors serve as a basis for having high expectations with Severino. Some aspects of its poor performance are largely due to mechanical and location issues.

Indeed, his fastball continues to demonstrate an elite level of velocity with an average of 96.5 mph, at which, before the 2023 season, opponents were hitting for an average below .200. However, breaking pitches, including his slider, which has been historically important in his arsenal due to its ability to generate high vertical and horizontal movements, have resulted in severe damage to the results obtained last season.

Severino has been working on his mechanics, on corrections to avoid tipping pitches, and working on his delivery this offseason with Driveline Baseball, which can lead to positive results. With the type of financial commitment made with Severino, the Mets have achieved a move that can pay high dividends in 2024.

Joey Wendle's hiring isn't particularly good

The first move regarding a position player this offseason was infielder Joey Wendle. The former Marlin is coming off a less-than-productive season where he hit for a line of .212/.248/.306/.554 with 2 homers and 20 RBIs in 297 at-bats.

After two productive seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 and 2021, Wendle's offensive production is on the decline. It was aggravated in 2023 with an increase in his K% of more than seven percentage points, and his BB% is in the bottom 10% of the league.

Likewise, his defensive capacity has been impaired, with 2023 being his worst year of all with an Outs Above Average among the lowest in the league, which generates concern because his hitting is not prominent. On the other hand, his speed on the bases is above average which relatively helps his case.

Among all the aspects that Wendle's profile brings to the Mets' lineup, his lack of ability to hit fastballs better is what stands out the most in his recent hitting profile. After hitting fastballs in 2022 for a batting average above .300, his percentage dropped sharply in 2023 to a poor .242 with a low slugging percentage of .345.

Observing the change in Wendle's offensive profile and his drop in defensive quality, his signing does not look promising on the Mets roster for 2024. This may be one of the team's worst moves this offseason.

Jorge Lopez has considerable aspects to work on in his stuff

The Mets made a gamble for Jorge Lopez hoping that he would return to the level shown in 2022 with the Baltimore Orioles, wherein four months posted an ERA of 1.68, with a WHIP of 0.97, totaling 19 saves with 54 strikeouts in 48.1 innings pitched. From this point on, Lopez's results began to decline rapidly.

In his time with three different organizations last season, Lopez finished with a terrible 5.95 ERA, due mainly to an increase in contact from his opponents and a hard-hit contact allowed above 45%, ranking in the bottom 7% of the league. Additionally, his ability to generate swing-and-miss and produce strikeouts decreased by around six percentage points.

The main problem that Lopez has faced in his stuff in the recent past has been his sinker. The sinker pitch was the most effective during 2022, inducing a slugging of just .331. However, in 2023, this same pitch registered a slugging of .500 because batters elevated it more than in the previous year, decreasing its capacity to induce ground balls from 58.7% to 47.1%.

If Lopez can again find a way to improve his sinker, to make it a pitch with greater capacity to induce ground balls, we can expect a good year for this reliever. The success of this signing depends on the ability of the Mets' pitching coach staff to redirect Lopez toward the mechanics shown in 2022.

The Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor trade could pay good dividends this year and in the future

David Stearns made his first trade as the Mets' president of baseball operations with his former organization, the Milwaukee Brewers. In the trade, the Mets sent prospect Coleman Crow, acquired in the trade that sent Eduardo Escobar to the Los Angeles Angels, for pitcher Adrian Houser and outfielder Tyrone Taylor.

In the trade, the Mets get a needed starter with a fifth starter profile but with a good ability to induce ground balls and be an efficient pitcher. Additionally, the team gets a fourth outfielder with good defensive ability and a significant plus of power, something the team lacks. 

This is a trade with multiple impacts on the organization. In Taylor, the Mets get an outfielder with potential, that is controllable beyond the 2024 season. In Houser, a starter capable of consuming a considerable amount of innings and a good exchange chip in a possible active team trade deadline if they do not become competitive by mid-season. 

Both aspects are relevant given the Mets' cost was Coleman Crow, a prospect of average potential, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. In short, this trade is a good move for the Mets that will have an immediate positive impact on the field.

Harrison Bader's signing has multiple important ramifications

The signing of Harrison Bader has multiple factors with positive and negative effects on the Mets organization. First, his contract looks high for someone who finished the 2023 season with offensive production with a terrible OPS+ of 63 and a career average below the league average.

Likewise, his presence on the team limits the improvement that Brandon Nimmo has achieved by playing in the center field in the last two seasons. Likewise, his split numbers versus his right-handed pitchers show worrying offensive production, with a batting average in 2023 of just .207 and a horrendous slugging percentage of .263.

On the other hand, there are some positive aspects to this signing. Bader's defense and speed on the bases stand out with values well above the league average in both categories, giving the Mets elite defensive skills in center field and baserunning, an aspect that has become relevant in the game.

One aspect that would make this signing work out better is if the organization considers using Bader in a platoon role against left-handed pitchers whom he hits for a line of .299/.361/.575/.936. Bader could boost the offense at the bottom of the lineup against LHP, thus enhancing his best abilities on both sides of the ball.

The Mets hope Driveline Baseball has increased Sean Manaea's stuff even more

This offseason, the Mets signed Sean Manaea to a two-year contract worth $28 million with an option out after the 2024 season. Manaea is coming from a season where he completed 117.2 innings between his roles as starter and reliever with the San Francisco Giants, where he posted an ERA of 4.44 with 128 strikeouts.

Despite pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in 2023, advanced metrics and underlying stats show that we can expect reliable results with Manaea in 2024. In his 2023 off-season training at Driveline Baseball Manaea achieved impressive results, including an increase in almost three miles per hour on his fastball last season, with which he limited the damage to opponents by reducing one slugging allowed by this pitch.

But the development of its sweeper is perhaps one of the most relevant news in this pitcher. Through the use of this pitch, Manaea managed to limit opponents to a batting average of just .158 and a surprising slugging percentage of .184, generating a whiff%, that is, a swing and miss of 36.3%, an elite ratio in the league.

The advanced metrics and development of his sweeper can lead Manaea to be one of the best pitchers in the Mets' rotation this season, even improving his results from the previous season. There is risk in this signing due to the increase in batters' contact with pitches in Manaea's strike zone, but the gamble is worth it.

Adam Ottavino returning to the Mets may not be a good idea

The Mets appear to have made a good deal with Adam Ottavino after he declined an option for the 2024 season, only to end up signing for a lower contract value. However, despite this savings in payroll for the Mets, signing this reliever is not a good idea.

Ottavino presented a significant regression in 2023 that could be the beginning of a debacle in his career, given his age and length of service. After posting a reasonable ERA of 3.21 with a WHIP of 1.22 in 61.2 innings pitched, it seems that Ottavino did not have such a disastrous year, but the metrics indicate otherwise.

His hard-hit contact allowed is the second highest of his career, with 40.7%, only surpassed by the short season of 2020. Added to this is that the contact of his opponents is the highest of his career since his debut while the swing% of hitters has decreased, which indicates that Ottavino's ability to deceive has considerably reduced, and this can be seen in the drop in the percentage of his strikes derived from the swing and miss generated.

The velocity of practically all of his pitches has decreased while the batting and slugging average of his main pitches, sinker, and sweeper, have increased in 2023. The above added to his age indicates a worrying pitcher profile that could harm the bullpen of the Mets this season.

If Jake Diekman can improve his control, he will be a good reinforcement for the Mets bullpen

The New York Mets signed Jake Diekman this offseason to a one-year, $4 million contract with a vesting option for 2025 for the same value, which would apply if Diekman completes 58 appearances during the season. The veteran reliever who has accumulated 12 seasons in MLB has just closed 2023 with a good performance with the Tampa Bay Rays, with which he completed 45.1 innings in 50 appearances where he finished with an ERA of 2.18 and managed to strike out 53 batters, granting 25 walks.

Diekman's profile continues to show significant weakness in the control and command of his pitches, showing a high level of walk rate of 15.6%, placing him in the bottom 1% of the league in this area. Despite this, David Stearns decided to gamble on this pitcher who has a peculiarity and can be highly efficient at Citi Field.

Diekman has two things in his pitching profile that make him efficient despite his problems with walks. The first thing is that although he receives a lot of contact with his pitches from hitters, they do this more outside the strike zone than inside it, which generates contact with a greater probability of negative results for the hitters.

This is demonstrated in the increase in the outside swing % or chase rate, which went from 44.9% in 2022 to 62.9% in 2023. Likewise, this contact produces a hard-hit contact weak enough to induce low-speed hits, placing Diekman in the top 1% of the league with the lowest hard-hit contact allowed.

This combination of generating contact outside the zone and weakly has caused Diekman to produce at a level of expected batting average and expected slugging, which is one of the lowest in the entire league. The opportunity provided by this profile and the possibility of mitigating walks could offer the Mets an efficient high-leverage reliever in 2024.

Shintaro Fujinami has the ceiling of an All-Star closer

Among the several moves David Stearns made this offseason, the one that could have the best cost-benefit ratio for the Mets could be the signing of Shintaro Fujinami. Fujinami signed a one-year contract worth a guaranteed $3.35 million with incentives that could add $850,000.

A relevant aspect of Fujinami's contract is its flexibility because it includes minor league options, which could allow the team to send down Fujinami, after a good or bad performance, in times of high need for fresh arms, and pressing moments of the season. Minor league options are scarce for players of the profile and caliber of Fujinami.

Despite being a dominant pitcher in Japan before his MLB debut, his arrival in the USA did not generate the expected impact, finishing the season with a 7.18 ERA. However, since his midseason trade to the Baltimore Orioles, he showed signs of improvement, finishing the second half of the year with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

Fujinami's profile has two important problems, its control and the hard-hit contact allowed, both problems derived from the same situation, location. Despite having an explosive fastball that averages more than 98 mph and a splitter in combination with good cutting speed and spin rate, the location of both pitches generates enough contact from the rivals in the strike zone to which he connects. a high bat speed despite inducing good swing and miss.

However, it is no secret to anyone that the adaptation to the use of the MLB ball by Japanese pitchers takes time, which could indicate that as the preseason progresses, Fujinami will be able to continue with its adaptation to the USA model. As Jeremy Hefner refers to in this spring training, Fujinami has a closer All-Star ceiling, and the Mets can get exactly, that for the price of a middle reliever this season.

The Mets made a big statement to close the offseason

David Stearns used his experience and patience despite criticism from the fans, after seeing an offseason with less impact than previous years, and achieved a highly necessary signing for the team. The Mets agreed to sign J.D. Martinez to a one-year contract worth a total of $12 million.

Martinez's signature and contract have many relevant aspects for the organization. On the one hand, the offensive value that Martines brings in the middle of a lineup that looked without relevant offensive value in the designated hitter position, and on the other hand, the financial value that Stearns achieved by mitigating the impact on the 2024 payroll and leaving room to operate in case you are competing for the trade deadline.

Martinez was one of last season's top hitters despite his age. In 113 games, the well-known designated hitter posted an exceptional line of .271/.321/.572/.893 with 33 home runs and 103 RBI, with a hard hit contact in the top 2% of the league with 55.1% and a quality of batting measured through his wOBA of .369, located in the top 8% of the entire MLB.

On the economic side, the signing looks even better since Stearns got Martinez to agree to a contract value of just $4.5 million (including a signing bonus), leaving $1.5 million to be paid deferred between 2034-2038, which softens the cost in terms from luxury tax. For Martinez's level of offensive production, even accounting for his playing time and possible injuries, this contract is in his bargain for the Mets organization.

The Martinez signing changes fans' entire perception and improves the Mets' chances of being competitive for a wild card spot this season. There is no doubt that Steve Cohen and David Stearns sent a clear message heading into the start of the 2024 season, the team has not given up and is here to compete.