Why this offseason will be more like 2017-18 than 2022-23

The New York Mets entered the 2017-18 offseason with many holes for Sandy Alderson to fill. The team went 70-92 in a season where we as fans had World Series expectations. Yoenis Cespedes had signed a 4-year $110 million dollar contract the prior offseason. 'The Flushing Five' rotation was still intact with Noah Syndergaard expected to lead the way. Nobody could have foreseen what had happened to the Mets in 2017.

This offseason feels eerily similar to that following 2017. The over-under odds for the Mets in 2023 was 93.5 wins coming off the 101-win season in 2022. Steve Cohen spent big on Diaz, Nimmo, Senga, and Verlander. All of the pieces were in place until Diaz suffered a season ending injury pitching in the World Baseball Classic. As we know, the Mets lost 87 games last year and Buck Showalter stepped down as manager. Sounds familiar, doesn't it? This begs the question, why will this offseason be more like 2017-18 than last year when Steve Cohen spent big?

1. Hiring of a rookie manager

The Mets following 2017 hired Mickey Callaway as their new manager. Callaway would step into the locker room just about 20 years younger than Collins and was considered more embracing of the analytics and front office collaboration. Callaway was also known as a great pitching mind coming over from Cleveland. He had re-invented arms such as Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber, turning them into top line starting pitchers.

Carlos Mendoza has been hired in part for similar priorities. He is just 43 years old compared to his predecessor, Showalter, who is closing in on age 70. Mendoza has been considered a great right-hand man to Yankees manager Aaron Boone in recent years, who has also grown through the analytical era. For David Stearns, the hope in hiring Mendoza is that his managerial style will be tied along with front office collaboration on lineup and pitching decisions, just as it was with Callaway.

2. The free agent route

In 2017, there were many moving parts at the trade deadline. Bruce, Duda, Granderson, Reed, and Walker were all moved in July and August, leaving the Mets with many holes to fill come the offseason. Given the Mets farm system was ranked bottom-tier amongst all 30 teams, Alderson was reluctant to part with any prospects of value in a trade scenario. Remember Alderson never wanted to trade Brandon Nimmo for Andrew McCutchen? This decision was not just about money under the Wilpons- Alderson had no interest in parting with any young talent.

The 2023 season was no different as Canha, Pham, Robertson, Scherzer, and Verlander were traded and left holes for Stearns to fill this offseason. If Stearns sticks to his word in building a sustainable winner through the farm system, we cannot expect major trades to be made. We could envision trades similar to that of Jeff Brigham or Brooks Raley last offseason where lower ranked prospects were moved, but nothing in the range of Gimenez and Rosario for Lindor and Carrasco or Kelenic for Diaz and Cano. Bottom Line- The Mets will build around their current core through free agency and keep their top prospects intact for 2024 and beyond.

4. The rotation needs help

The 2017 Mets ended the season with one starting pitcher having thrown 30 or more starts- Jacob deGrom. All of Harvey, Matz, Syndergaard, and Wheeler made less than 30 starts and were ineffective when they did pitch. The depth guys, Gsellman and Lugo, pitched to an ERA close to 5 and made more starts than was expected on opening day. Alderson addressed this problem by signing Jason Vargas to a 2-year contract.

The 2023 Mets were no different in this regard either. Kodai Senga is the only Mets starter to have made close to 30 starts. Jose Quintana missed most of the season due to injury, and the depth guys in Megill and Peterson pitched almost identical to Gsellman and Lugo in 2018. My expectation from Stearns is to pursue Yamamoto, but also sign 1 or 2 starting pitchers to mid-tier contracts more like Vargas than Scherzer or Verlander.

5. Lowered expectations

Heading into 2018, the expectation for the Mets was to compete for a wild card spot as opposed to the previous year of competing for the World Series. The team filled its holes by signing mid-tier free agents in Bruce, Frazier, Reyes, Swarzak, and Vargas. Though none of these moves were exciting, the expectation was for the players currently here to bounce back. Cespedes, Conforto, Familia, and 4/5 starting pitchers missed at least half of 2017 due to injury. The biggest phrase used for the 2018 Mets by fans was "if these guys stay healthy, we can be pretty good".

Heading into 2024, we cannot expect every hole to be filled by top free agent signings. Yes, Stearns will have conversations with the agents representing Ohtani and Yamamoto, but even Steve Cohen said in August that this level of spending is "not sustainable". Most holes are going to have to be filled with mid-tier signings and relying on the players here to bounce back.

Remember when Brodie Van Wagenen said in 2019, "we want to eliminate the if's". Well, the 2024 Mets are one huge "if" just like 2018 was. If McNeil bounces back, if Baty develops, if Diaz is healthy, if Acuna and Gilbert are blue-chip prospects, then the Mets can be pretty good. As Billy Eppler said in August, the Mets are developing for 2025. Any moves made this offseason will be with the expectation of contending more for the future rather than the present.