5 Mets moves this offseason that fit into their new direction

Mets offseason move that fits into their new direction #2: Fire Buck Showalter

In 2022, Buck Showalter was a breath of fresh air. He brought energy, charisma, wisdom, and leadership that the Mets haven’t had since Terry Collins. While I would occasionally question some of his bullpen decisions - which is the most-questioned aspect of any manager - I felt like Buck brought a lot to the table and made a difference for us last season.

In 2023, things couldn’t be more different. His poor decisions lost us games, most notably in that series at Philadelphia, by trying to save our best relievers for future games when they had barely thrown in the last week and using rookies in their place. He also said things to the media that were so delusional they made me laugh and wonder what team he was watching because it wasn’t the same team I was. Overall, he seems less energetic and more lost.

I don’t think someone like David Stearns would come in without the choice of manager anyway, so the timing of this lines up very well. I think Eric Chavez and Jeremy Hefner should stay, as they are highly respected across the league, but it is rumored that Stearns might want to bring Craig Counsel with him, which would be a vast improvement over Buck.

Mets offseason move that fits into their new direction #3: Trade for David Bednar

There’s no such thing as too many bullpen arms, and David Bednar is a really good one. Bednar has made 44 appearances in 2023, tossing 45.2 innings. He has allowed just 33 hits, seven earned runs, 13 walks, and struck out 56 batters. His ERA is 1.38, his FIP is 2.08, his WHIP is 1.01, and his ERA+ is 326.

The Mets should have Edwin Diaz back next season, so they could add Bednar in a setup role with the expectation that he steps up into the closer role if Diaz has setbacks or gets hurt again.

Bednar has three years of control remaining before becoming a free agent in 2027. It will take more than what the Marlins gave us for 38-year-old rental David Robertson, which was our #9 prospect Marc Vargas and #22 prospect Ronald Hernandez, but the Mets have the depth to make this happen. The Pirates currently don’t have a long-term solution at first base, so Mark Vientos should intrigue them. That's a good starting point for negotiation.

The Pirates free-falled from contender to pretender really quickly this season, and their window of contention is still a couple of years away as their young prospects continue to develop. They should look to move Bednar while he still has value, and the Mets have the depth to pull off a trade like this. 

Mets offseason move that fits into their new direction #4: Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto

The Orix Buffaloes of the Nippon Professional Baseball league (NPB) are expected to post ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto this winter. This year’s MLB free agent class is projected to be a fairly weak one, so Yamamoto will be one of the best pitchers available and multiple teams will be bidding on him.

Yamamoto has been one of the best pitchers in Japan since he started playing in 2017. In seven professional seasons, he owns a 1.81 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.61. The most aesthetically pleasing part of his baseball reference is his HR/9, which has dropped incrementally from 0.5 from 2017-19, to 0.4 in 2020, to 0.3 from 2021-22, and down to 0.2 this year.

2023 has been arguably his best season so far. He’s got a 1.57 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.64. He’s struck out 121 batters in 115 innings pitched.

Yamamoto has won the Eiji Sawamura Award (the Japanese version of the Cy Young Award) twice in 2021 and 2022, and he was also the Pacific League MVP in both of those years.

Billy Eppler has a history of interest in Japanese stars, including bringing Shohei Ohtani to the Angels and signing current Mets ace (I guess?) Kodai Senga. Since he’s already been to Japan to see Yamamoto pitch, this won’t be any different. Wouldn’t it be interesting if Eppler could convince both of them to join Senga in Queens this winter…?

Mets offseason move that fits into their new direction #5: Sign Shohei Ohtani

You didn’t think you’d read a 2023-24 offseason prediction that didn’t include Shohei Ohtani, did you? He fits into the long term plans of every MLB team, and the Mets are one of the few that can afford his services. 

Shohei the pitcher is having another splendid season. He’s made 21 starts and pitched 124.2 innings. He’s allowed just 82 hits, 46 earned runs, 51 walks, and he’s struck out 160 batters. His ERA is 3.32, his FIP is 4.07, his WHIP is 1.07, and his ERA+ is 135. He leads the league in H/9 with 5.9.

Shohei the hitter is even better. He’s slashing a ridiculous .306/.409/.672/1.081 with 40 homers, 18 doubles, 82 RBI, and 86 runs scored. He leads the league in slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ (188), triples (7), and total bases (279) and he leads the American League in walks (71) and on-base percentage. He’s also stolen 14 bases.

It’s all but guaranteed that Ohtani wins the AL MVP Award for the second time in three years, and I would argue he should’ve won it over Aaron Judge last year in what would’ve been three consecutive MVPs. He’s also going to get by far the largest contract in MLB history, with most estimates being around $600 million and some being as high as $700 million. That really limits his suitors, but Steve Cohen has the pockets to bring him to Queens for the rest of his career.