Regressions are coming in the Mets offense

The New York Mets offense has shown a resurgence in recent weeks thanks to more aggressiveness at the plate and putting the ball in play. This offensive awakening has been replicated in a better performance on the field of play, placing the team in a better position regarding the division standing.

However, even though some Mets hitters are showing positive results and others are unexpected, advanced metrics show that regressions will begin to arrive in some profiles of the Mets lineup. In this article, we present three cases where it is shown that the current results do not seem to be sustainable over time.

A drop in the offensive production of Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty is approaching

Brett Baty has started the season with good numbers, leading the team in batting average, while Francisco Alvarez has been an opportunity with the bat in pressing moments. However, when observing advanced metrics, we see that both have weaknesses in contact that show more luck in their results than sustainable production.

Baty displays a terrible combination of low hard-hit contact below 30% and a high ground ball rate above 50%, which leaves him with an xwOBA placed in the bottom 10% of the league. Alvarez, for his part, has the highest propensity to hit the ground on the team and the highest of his career, which despite an increase in his aggressiveness at the plate, is not elevating the ball, affecting his hitter profile composed mainly of power. 

Baty and Alvarez must begin to elevate the ball more and make more contact in the strike zone to maximize their results and make them sustainable. Otherwise, we can expect batting and slugging averages well below the league average for the two of them.

The best of Brandon Nimmo is yet to come

Brandon Nimmo is coming off a season in 2023 where he showed his best level of power and offensive production by hitting 24 home runs and 68 RBI, both career highs. This year, even though the numbers don't show it, Nimmo is showing his best level of power and contact in his MLB career.

Nimmo's hard-hit contact is currently over 50%, above that shown by Pete Alonso, placing an average exit velocity above 94 mph. This is combined with a good ratio of fly ball over ground balls which shows that the production of power will begin to be evident soon.

Indeed, Nimmo's expected slugging percentage is close to .600 with an xwOBA greater than .430, ranking in the top 15 in the league. If this pace continues, Nimmo could have a season of 30 HR and a considerable amount of Runs and RBI and could be the offensive leader of the Mets in 2024.