NL Wild Card standings by starting pitcher wins: Mets buried long ago

A win on Wednesday helped the New York Mets stay where they’ve been in the NL Wild Card standings. That’s because someone forgot to tell the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, and even the Atlanta Braves it’s okay to lose once in a while.

Although the Mets made no headway in the actual NL Wild Card standings, they did temper some of the panic with an easy 9-1 win over the Oakland Athletics. Included was a win by starting pitcher David Peterson. It’s the 33rd time a Mets pitcher has won a game this season.

What about the rest of the NL Wild Card contenders? We’re sizing each other up and if we look at the eight teams within reach of a playoff berth, the Mets are long buried if all they had to rely on were starting pitcher wins.

The NL Wild Card standings look much different if starting pitcher wins were all that mattered

Not every team has the same number of starting pitcher decisions, but at this point in the seasons they’re much closer. Here’s how the teams would rank:

Cincinnati Reds 42-37
Atlanta Braves 40-36
St. Louis Cardinals 40-39
Arizona Diamondbacks 39-32
San Diego Padres 39-40
New York Mets 33-37
San Francisco Giants 31-38
Chicago Cubs 30-35

A very pedestrian 33-37 record for Mets starters this year has them virtually buried. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds who have a +55 run-differential which is more than twice as strong as the Mets at +23 show off their strength with 42 total wins by their starting staff.

The Braves have been anchored by pitching all year so it’s no surprise to see them there. The St. Louis Cardinals claim the final spot barely above .500 and likely to fall with how well the Arizona Diamondbacks have done lately.

There are about a million reasons why MLB doesn’t order the standings this way. The game is played with relievers eligible for wins, too. That’s where many of these teams make up ground.

Interestingly, the team among those listed above with the best starting pitcher ERA this year are the last-place 30-35 Chicago Cubs starters. A 3.83 ERA from their starters beats several division leaders. Heck, even the Pittsburgh Pirates who have sunk their playoff hopes are better at 3.75.

The Mets starting pitchers, for those curious, have a 4.24 ERA this year which is better than the San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, and Arizona Diamondbacks. Even if we were to look at the NL Wild Card standings by that measure, they’re not a whole lot better. It does tell a different story. For the Mets, their starter pitcher’s record is more about the lack of innings they’ve gotten.

Mets relievers have posted a 29-21 record with a 4.05 ERA this season. Teams battling for the NL Wild Card are much closer here. The Diamondbacks, Padres, and Giants have each seen their relievers win 30 games. The Cubs are tied with the Mets at 29.

Starters must go at least 5 innings to qualify for the win and we’ve seen too many times how Mets starters were incapable of doing so. A league-high 265 walks by the Mets starters is a big part of the reason why.