Mets News: Sean Manaea is trending toward becoming a qualifying offer candidate

The MLB qualifying offer is suddenly in play for more than just Pete Alonso. The New York Mets first baseman was always sure to receive it from the ball club at the end of the season. His desire for big money made obvious by the choice to make Scott Boras his agent made it a guarantee he’d turn down the one-year deal at the end of 2024—or would he?

A different argument for a different day, Alonso might be more inclined to accept a possible one-year deal from the Mets. The qualifying offer for the 2024 season was $20.325 million. Turned down by the seven players who received it, this wouldn’t be such a bad wad of cash for Alonso to take and see if he can rebuild some stock with a monster 2025 campaign.

Meanwhile, pitcher Sean Manaea has suddenly thrown his hat into the ring as a qualifying offer candidate as well. Another way to keep Luis Severino around as well, Manaea might’ve passed his rotation teammate in terms of who we’d want back next season.

Mets pitcher Sean Manaea is feeling more worth a qualifying offer these days

Already likely to opt out of the $13.5 million on his deal for 2025, Manaea’s last two starts have us jumping for joy and to some conclusions. He is now 8-4 with a 3.30 ERA. He is the only Mets pitcher with over 100 strikeouts with Severino not far off at 96.

The qualifying offer is as much strategic as anything else. Signing a player who rejects the qualifying offer will cost draft pick compensation for most teams. Penalties vary depending on how much the payroll was the previous year. For instance, if the Mets signed a player last offseason who rejected the QO, they would’ve lost two draft picks plus international slot money. It’s a goofy way to punish teams who actually want to pay players yet it also allows some other clubs to go short-term with players on a high AAV.

The Mets have had players accept this offer in the past. Neil Walker in 2017 and Marcus Stroman in 2021 each returned on the QO. Manaea, for around $20 million in 2025, seems a bit steep but it’s not all that much more than the AAV he’ll be likely to receive on the open market. Assuming inflation on free agent starting pitchers of his level comes into play next offseason, he’d probably be looking at somewhere closer to $16-17 million per year at minimum but with some offers extending beyond just one with an option—what the Mets gave him.

Making the offer to Manaea would make some clubs less interested to sign him because of the penalties. This works to the Mets’ advantage. They can more easily re-sign him if he was to reject the offer. If he accepted it, they’d simply have a pitcher on the roster probably getting paid a little more than he deserves. Or perhaps not if the version we’ve seen of Manaea lately is what we’ll get more of.

August has been Manaea’s weakest month of his career. Prior to his 7 shutout innings on Monday against the St. Louis Cardinals, he had a lifetime 5.93 ERA in the month. Before we start sweating, his best month has been September/October. A career-best 2.94 ERA in the final month of the season suggests he’s capable of finishing strong.

The Mets have money to throw around next offseason. So what if Manaea ends up with about $5 million per year than on a one-year deal? The stud we’ve seen of late is worth each coin.