NY Mets need a ton more from these 3 players to have a shot at the playoffs

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The New York Mets have had some disappointing performances in the first half, both as a team and as individuals. If some of these players step up, that could have a massive impact on the team’s performance in the second half.

Mets we need to see more from #1: Adam Ottavino

Adam Ottavino was one of the best relievers in baseball last year, but the righty has taken a massive step back in 2023. In 36 innings pitched, he’s allowed 26 hits, 17 walks, 15 earned runs, and struck out 38 batters. His ERA is 3.72, his FIP is 4.79, his WHIP is 1.18, and his ERA+ 112.

There are three reasons for concern with Ottavino. The first one is that his walk problems have come back. Last year his walk rate was 6.2% and his BB/9 was 2.2, this year both have basically doubled. His walk rate is 11.1% and his BB/9 is 4.2. He only walked 16 batters in all of 2022, but he’s already walked 17 batters at the midpoint of this season. He’s also allowed the same number of earned runs this year (15) as he did all of last year.

The second cause for concern is his FIP being so much higher than his ERA. Basically that means he’s had some luck in the first half, and also the Mets’ defense has helped him out. Walking more batters, striking out fewer, and knowing that your luck will turn is not a recipe for success in the second half.

Lastly, the third cause for concern is that he’s struggled against good teams. Against teams with winning percentages of .500 or better, he’s got a 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and he’s allowed 11 of his 15 earned runs. It’s hard to trust him in a late-inning role when he can’t get big outs against good opponents, especially with Edwin Diaz out.

Mets we need to see more from #2: Jeff McNeil

Jeff McNeil has been an offensive liability for the Mets this year.

The 2022 NL Batting Champ and Silver Slugger winner is slashing just .253/.331/.328/.659 with three homers, 13 doubles, 26 RBI, and 37 runs scored. His OPS+ is 84, 16 percent below league average. His wRC+ is 91, nine percent below league average.

The problem with contact hitters like McNeil is that when bloops aren’t falling, he provides no offensive value. This year and in 2021, the two years he’s struggled the most, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .282 and .280, respectively. Every other season, he’s been in the .330-.360 range.

This year his xBA is in the 43rd percentile and his xwOBA is in the 19th percentile. Last year, his xBA was in the 94th percentile and his xwOBA was in the 58th percentile.

His biggest asset to the Mets this year has been his defensive versatility. He’s mainly played second base (74 games), but he’s also played left field 14 times, right field 12 times, and shortstop once. Unfortunately, his defense has also declined sharply, which may be a product of his offensive struggles, as we’ve seen before with his temper.

Mets we need to see more from #3: Starling Marte

Starling Marte has been really bad this year.

The righty is slashing .256/.309/.336/.644 with five homers, seven doubles, 28 RBI, and 37 runs scored. His OPS+ is just 79, 21 percent below league average. His wRC+ is 83, 17 percent below league average.

At age 34, his age-related decline has taken effect. His sprint speed has slowly been declining since 2019, but the biggest step down came between last year and this year. His sprint speed was in the 68th percentile last year, and it’s now below average in the 47th percentile.

Even with his speed decline, the one area Marte has excelled is stealing bases. He’s stolen 23 bases in 27 attempts. His 23 steals is 6th in MLB, just three behind exciting rookie Corbin Carroll.

He’s also lost a lot of power. His isolated power (ISO) was .176 last year, and it’s down to just .080 this year. His barrel rate is down from 6.8% to 5.8%, which is a pretty big drop over one year. He’s pulling the ball less this year (42.5% last year, 36.7% this year), so he’s losing bat speed as well.

These three guys were a key part of the Mets’ success in 2022, and their decline is a major reason for their struggles in the first half of 2023. The Mets need them to turn it around and fast, but I don’t know if that’s possible.

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