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Mets Monday Morning GM: Lingering thoughts on the Luis Severino contract
Was Luis Severino really the right wild card to take a chance on in the rotation?
After having some time to stew and think about the Luis Severino signing, not much has changed. Severino was not someone who got me excited for the coming New York Mets season. It’s understandable why they chose him. A one-year deal for a guy who was good in the past is one way to bridge seasons and possibly get that high reward everyone keeps mentioning; possibly.
There are some lingering questions and thoughts. It’s not just the recent injury history or how bad he was with the New York Yankees last year. It’s all encompassing and involves one of his new teammates, Jose Quintana.
Both signed deals with a $13 million AAV with Quintana having a second guaranteed season. The Mets paid Severino what the market is and I don’t have a problem with it unless this becomes some sort of an excuse as to why they can’t have someone else. Where my concerns lie are with the difference in choice between Severino and Quintana as well as some of those other available options.
The Mets chose Luis Severino as a “what if” candidate on a reasonable yet imperfect contract
The free agent starting pitcher market has changed a ton in just one year. Quintana suddenly feels like a bargain.
Before signing with the Mets, Quintana had an impressive season split with the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals. He spent a couple of years lost in the muck and on the IL regularly before coming back and exceling for a season. His 2023 injury cost him most of the year. When he did come back, he was good at first but eventually slowed down.
It made sense why the Mets would sign Quintana for the back half of their rotation. A lesser team could have even justified putting him closer to the top. With Severino, you have to cross your fingers and hope everything about the 2023 season for him was false.
Where the Mets could have gone instead
Free agency regularly offers a slew of arms looking for their chance to rebound. Severino was the one they chose. Age and potential upside seem to have been the leading factors there. The ability to avoid having to commit to more than one season probably made him a better match as well. It may have been nice to have a team option for 2024 although the ability to give him a qualifying offer might suffice. This is the absolute best case scenario.
The Mets could have gone in the direction of a pitcher like Wade Miley who can’t seem to get out of the NL Central. Someone David Stearns is already familiar with, he hasn’t been the healthiest in recent seasons, but he has been effective on a more regular basis. Was it the age that steered them away from a pitcher like Miley? The 37-year-old ended up back with the Milwaukee Brewers taking home $7 million with another $2.5 million available based on innings pitched. There’s a $12 million option for 2025 on him with a $1.5 million buyout.
In short: Miley broke no one’s bank.
This free agent signing feels a little too familiar
I can’t help but feel the Severino signing is too similar to the addition of Rick Porcello back in 2020 with some Dellin Betances sprinkled in for bad measure. The “okay, let’s see what he can do” feeling was there with Porcello along with some major doubts. Spun as the Mets signing a former Cy Young winner, there isn’t quite as much positive twirling to do with Severino. The horrific 6.65 ERA last year in 89.1 innings of work is a big stain. Two-time All-Star doesn’t do it either. Those two seasons happened before Pete Alonso was even a major leaguer. That’s a long time and several major injuries in between the last time Severino was elite.
The Mets are giving Severino a chance to prove himself in 2024 in a year where the team looks ready to offer opportunities like this. The idea of the Mets attacking the offseason by throwing rocks instead of missiles seems to be true, at least for now.
It’s unpredictable how good or bad Severino will be. In 2022, he made 19 starts and had a 3.18 ERA. We’ll take that with a little more health mixed in, too. But who really knows at this point? The Mets chose the positive “if” instead of the conservative and reliable “probably will.”
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