Will Max Scherzer win more games in two seasons with the Mets than Steven Matz won with the team?

Division Series - Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants - Game Five
Division Series - Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants - Game Five / Thearon W. Henderson/GettyImages

Max Scherzer and Steven Matz will forever be linked because of how the New York Mets missing out on one seemed to directly lead to them signing the other. Plus, for whatever it’s worth, New Yorker Matz went to St. Louis to play for the Cardinals while St. Louis native Scherzer went to New York in order to pursue a championship with the Mets.

Comparisons between the two are entirely unfair. Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation and a first ballot Hall of Famer. Meanwhile, Matz is a really nice charitable dude who works hard at his craft and is still one of the best pitchers in the world just to be in the major leagues.

Matz’s time with the Mets was certainly not what we originally expected. In parts of six seasons, he posted a 4.35 ERA and managed to win only 31 games. I know wins don’t matter nearly as much as they used to, but I’m curious if in two years with the Mets if Scherzer can already top Matz’s win total.

If you enjoy stupid sports bets, this is one to consider.

Can the Mets get more wins from Max Scherzer in two years than they ever got from Steven Matz?

The over/under isn’t an incredibly high number at all. Scherzer just needs to win 32 games to beat it. That’s 16 per season. Unless the offense disrespects him like he’s Jacob deGrom, it is possible.

Scherzer managed to win 15 games this past season which if replicated puts him on track to get to those 32 wins in two years if he’s able to push through and win a few extra in year two. Dating back to 2011, Scherzer has always won 14 or more games each season where he managed to make 30+ starts. Health must be on his side in order to leave the 2023 season with 32 Mets victories.

A much safer wager won’t limit this goal to only two seasons. By simply making it a total to reach as a member of the Mets adds in a whole new possibility.

Scherzer’s contract could keep him in Queens for three full seasons. So, if you’re going with the over in this instance, you’re also taking on the idea of Scherzer remaining with the Mets after the 2023 season.

It’s far less outrageous to put down Scherzer for 32 wins in three seasons. In his last 69 starts which span the previous three seasons, Scherzer is 31-15. This includes a 27 start campaign in 2019 and the 12 he made in the shortened 2020 season. Mets fans are hoping for a few more from him in the next two or three years. Notably, it’s the ones he makes deep in October that will matter most.

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