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Preseason projections for Mets slugger Mark Vientos were way off
Back when Mark Vientos was thought to be the starting DH, projections had Mark Vientos topping out in HR and RBI around where he already is.
Back on February 1, the New York Mets were looking to head into the season with Mark Vientos as their DH. A tweet was even put out comparing the ZiPS projections for him in 2024 compared to J.D. Martinez who was unsigned at the time.
It seemed like it was a bit of manipulation to suggest the Mets would be all right with Vientos in the DH spot. Many weren’t buying it. In fact, not even they could have seen this coming. Martinez was signed by the Mets. Vientos was sent to the minors. No one could complain. But those preseason projections were way off.
The Mets are unlikely to add an external DH unless the price comes "way down," per @martinonyc
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) February 1, 2024
Here's how Mark Vientos' @fangraphs ZiPS projections for 2024 compare to J.D. Martinez, arguably the top free agent DH still on the market
(h/t @WillSammon) pic.twitter.com/1klkw0DJkx
Mark Vientos has obliterated his preseason projections
Vientos is now one home run shy of the 20 he was predicted to have. Martinez trails him by a half-baker’s dozen minus one otherwise known in some parts as 7. He has gone deep just 12 times this season. Jeff McNeil is right on his tail at 11.
The immediate takeaway from fans back when this tweet came out was how unlikely it was for Martinez after a monster year with the Los Angeles Dodgers to fall off so hard. He’s actually approaching these projections. Now slashing .257/.345/.434 with a .779 OPS, he should top the 60 RBI but looks like he’ll fall shy of the 22 home runs.
Meanwhile, Vientos is way over what the ZiPS machine and anyone else for that matter expected. His two homer day on Thursday brought him to 19 on the season while raising him to a .275/.333/.557 slash line on the year. His .890 OPS leads the ball club. The .728 that was projected for him isn’t going to happen. He’ll also surpass the 53 RBI total.
The achievement is in large part due to his ability to win the third base job. At best, Vientos was going to have to share duties at the DH spot and maybe occasionally play some third base. When he started the season in Triple-A, it looked like reaching any of these numbers would be impossible.
Vientos has now appeared in 73 games and has already come close to matching what the popular prediction machine said he would do. Humbled by pitchers plenty in his career, Vientos finally looks like he belongs. He has the numbers to prove it.
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