Luis Severino's success depends on his approach and workload management

The New York Mets armed their pitching staff near the end of 2023 with a familiar face around the city. Moving from the Bronx to Queens, right-handed starting pitcher Luis Severino will gear up in a few weeks to start his onboarding with the Mets. It is an appropriate time to ponder upon expectations. 

The Mets invested in a player that can be rewarding to their pitching situation with a short-term commitment; the only downside is his frequent track record of injury with Severino. The right-hander is a proven ace on the bump and has demonstrated over the years that his pitching profile is competitive and worth a paycheck. 

Unfortunately, a 2023 September outing repeated fate as Severino suffered a familiar injury, putting his career and reliability in disrepute. Moving forward within weeks of pitchers' and catcher's report, the newly acquired Mets starter can post success with a few changes to approach; both from the player and management. 

Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino can surpass expectations with strategic changes in his approach

Without a doubt, Luis Severino is amongst the elite arms in the game. He’s been a proven starter in one of the most taunting environments to play baseball. This is all due to the tools he’s equipped with on his belt of pitch options. 

Accompanying a four-seam fastball is a slider, changeup, cutter, and sinker. Severino makes it fun on the mound to toy with hitters, but on the back end, showing your cards defeats the purpose. His first step to success in 2024 is to be cognizant of pitches being tipped. Evaluators have mentioned Severino’s pitch-tipping issue and believe that it is a part of the reason hitters find long-ball success. 

After reviewing video, it is quite evident that he does not properly conceal the ball, making his next offering notably visual, especially from second base. As a start, the simple change of hiding the ball well and not giving away your next move can reduce accurate anticipation from your opponents. 

Mets Luis Severino can utilize his repertoire to control more counts in his favor 

The long ball has been historically an issue for Severino. Yes, tipping can contribute to this, however, pitch location and selection is another conversation. In the last two seasons with the Yankees, Severino had given up 37 big-flys in 191.1 innings of work. That averages about three home runs per inning in 2023. 

Now, on the flip side, Severino is also a big strikeout guy, and his numbers back that up. In 2022 where he worked through 102 innings, he struck out approximately three and a half more batters than he walked; he fanned 112, only walking 30. His numbers were similar and extremely impressive in his two all-star years in 2017 and 2018. 

His command is above satisfactory and he’s a strike-thrower. So, where does he go wrong? The utilizes the strike zone too much while being fastball-dependent. His fastball maxed at 96.5mph with a 2266 spin rate and pounded the zone with a 45.5% reliability rate. Severino gets burnt middle-in and middle-up and rarely works his fastball low on either side of the square. Although the fastball is his highest put-away rate at the amount it’s used at 15.7%, the sinker seems to be an effective pitch that is highly neglected at 2.9% usage but a 30% put-away rate.

His sinker sits at 95.6mph with the lowest exit velocity recorded of all five options within his repertoire. vertically the sinker drops 16.6 inches and darts horizontally at 13.9 inches. The sinker is the hidden gem that if developed and worked in more, could be a secondary out-pitch. The other three junk options should also be utilized more and earlier in counts, saving some of the fastballs for blow-away options later in the count. 

Mets management could be the downfall of Severino if not careful 

We’re all aware of Severino’s battle with injury, most recently with his oblique. It is important for Mets management to incorporate a load management system where he’s closely monitored. His workload needs to on-ramp with caution and needs to be accessed and capped throughout the season. Failure to misuse this arm can lead him back to injury which ultimately puts the Mets rotation into a tough spot and cripples a one-year contract.