Why Luis Severino is a perfect fit for the Mets

Milwaukee Brewers v New York Yankees
Milwaukee Brewers v New York Yankees / Rich Schultz/GettyImages

Free agency has been progressing, and some names, especially on the starting pitching side, have already been signed, an area of ​​need for the New York Mets. Within the identification of talent that can fit the Mets' plans, Luis Severino has emerged as an option to consider.

According to reports, the Mets would be meeting with Severino's representatives to consider him a candidate for the team's starting rotation. The former New York Yankees ace is coming off a disastrous season with the Bronx neighbors, which has considerably decreased his market value and raised doubts about his future performance in MLB. However, David Stearns and the operations department of the organization should consider Severino this offseason.

Luis Severino's stuff and potential are still intact

This season, in fact, was disastrous for Luis Severino. The regression presented in all indicators is surprising and disappointing, with an ERA of 6.65, a WHIP of 1.65, and a career-high of 23 home runs allowed.

It seems that Severino forgot how to throw, but if we look closely at the advanced metrics, we can see an issue that is more outlier than something sustainable. If we start with his fastball we will notice that it continues to maintain the same speed as previous seasons (96.5 mph on average) and an almost identical spin rate of all his pitches, which indicates that at first glance Severino's problem is not health but location.

If we use his fastball as an example, we can see that it was hit at a batting average of .186 in 2022, and this season, batters hit it at .353. The answer is that his fastball and pitches, like his slider, did not break this year in the same way as in 2022, keeping the pitches hanging in the middle of the strike zone (see Statcast Pitch Arsenal zones).

The location problem and possible change in Severino's mechanics could be fixed, with the correct monitoring of someone like Jeremy Hefner. With the necessary adjustments, Severino could reach similar levels to the 2021 and 2022 seasons when he was a reliable pitcher.

Based on this fact, and the possible cost that he will require as a pitcher in free agency with the possibility of signing a one-year contract and around 10-14 million to reestablish his value in the market, the Mets could be acquiring a number three pitcher of a rotation with potential to contribute like a number one or two. Severino could be the best gamble of all the pitchers available due to its performance-cost ratio, possibly becoming a low-cost, high-reward pitcher.