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Early grades for the last 5 Mets first-round draft picks
Which draft picks have worked and which ones haven't?
The New York Mets pick 19th in this year’s MLB Draft. Do they end up with the next Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick from 1983, or a Larry Hutton? Hutton was taken 19th overall by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1966 and never reached the majors.
The Mets have had the 19th overall pick twice before. Both players were coincidentally traded away in controversial deals. For the sake of the farm system, we’ll hope for different results this time around.
Looking back at the last five Mets first-round draft picks, what grades do these picks deserve?
2023 – Colin Houck, C-
It has been a tremendously slow start for the 2023 New York Mets first-round pick, Colin Houck. The 19-year-old shortstop played in just 9 games last season and has been searching for consistency in the minors this season. He gets a C- grade which might be a little generous for the numbers he has produced.
Houck is barely hitting over .200 this season and has struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances. This isn’t the roaring start the Mets were hoping for when they took him in last year’s draft. This is barely a purr.
Drafting another shortstop doesn’t deserve the kind of eye roll some fans may immediately give. It’s usually shortstops who end up playing second base or third base anyway.
The Mets were unable to get this pick in until the 32nd overall selection due to the punishments which came with actually paying players and going over the luxury tax. The verdict has yet to come in on Houck. So far, so average.
2022 – Kevin Parada, D+
The selection itself wasn’t bad. Other than knowing they already had Francisco Alvarez in the system, the Mets weren’t wrong to take Kevin Parada with the 11th overall pick in 2022. This was a pick they got for their failure to sign Kumar Rocker the year prior. More on him in a little bit.
Parada received a franchise-record $5,019,735 signing bonus. Of course, with inflation and being selected so high in the draft, it was only natural for a new record to get set here.
Parada has only recently begun to hit well and show some power. Still behind the .248/.324/.428 from last season by around 20 points in each category, the way to save this first-round draft selection will be for his sudden offensive surge to be some sort of jumping off point. Through his first 42 plate appearances in June, Parada has hit .316/.381/.579 with 3 home runs and 7 RBI.
The fact that Parada isn’t considered a top 100 prospect in baseball is a big bummer. It shouldn’t fall exclusively on the Mets. The player needs to perform.
It’s looking more and more like Parada’s ceiling will have him as a backup in the major leagues—if he gets there at all. The Mets don’t have much of a need for him. A trade could always happen, but at this point, what would they be able to get in return?
2022 – Jett Williams, A
It turns out that the “other” player the Mets took in the first round of 2022 was the winning one. Infielder/outfielder Jett Williams has spent most of this season sidelined, but his impressive 2023 season made him one of the game’s best prospects and according to many, the most impressive within the organization. No other grade but an A is appropriate here.
Taken only a few picks after Parada as the 14th overall selection in 2022, Williams is a high schooler who performed way above expectations in his first full professional season.
Williams hit .263/.425/.451 in 2023 with 13 home runs, 55 RBI, and 45 stolen bases. He passed everyone within the Mets farm system with terrific numbers. Most eye-catching of all might’ve been the 104 walks he drew.
Sadly, Williams has been out for most of this season. Only 11 games with Binghamton before his wrist injury he batted only .180 but did have 8 walks versus 5 strikeouts.
Williams’ role with the Mets will have him venturing to become their starting second baseman or center fielder if not working regularly as both. His injury this season plus only being 20-years-old will have his MLB ETA pushed back a few months. The Mets shouldn’t feel forced to move him to the next level too quickly. Give the kid some time to regain his confidence in Double-A and prove he’s ready.
2021 – Kumar Rocker, D-
Kumar Rocker was the 10th overall pick in 2021 and he fell to the Mets in an amazing yet suspicious fashion. A college star at Vanderbilt, this draft pick deserves a D- for a couple of reasons.
First of all, we know the Mets failed to sign Rocker. That’s probably for the best because when he was taken third overall by the Texas Rangers in 2022, he didn’t pitch well and underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2023. He is actually back in what should be viewed more as a rehab than a full return to glory. His first start this season, in Rookie Ball, lasted only 2 innings. He struck out 3 and gave up a home run.
Rocker is already 24 which for those of us who look back at that age wondering where the team went scowl with jealousy. In the world of MLB prospects, Rocker is further behind.
The Mets dodged a bullet by not signing Rocker and yet this draft pick barely makes its way above an F. The fact that they used their compensation pick to take Parada the following year doesn’t help either.
It was bold of the Mets to take Rocker in the draft when his stock had fallen so badly because of some health concerns. They got nothing out of him and we’ll be fortunate to get anything from the player they ended up with the next year.
2020 – Pete Crow-Armstrong, B+
The last time the Mets picked 19th overall was when they took Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2020. Justin Dunn is the other guy drafted in this spot. Crow-Armstrong was famously traded in 2021 in the Javier Baez deal. Dunn was one of the prospects sent to the Seattle Mariners in the Edwin Diaz-Robinson Cano trade.
While the Mets never got to fully experience Crow-Armstrong, we should give them credit for a stellar draft pick. Still trying to find his footing in the majors with the Chicago Cubs, the left-handed hitting high school outfielder quickly became one of the best prospects in baseball. Too bad it happened after the Mets traded him away much like when they paired off Jarred Kelenic with Dunn.
It might not matter much who the Mets could’ve drafted instead because that pick was likely to get traded away by the new front office regime. Players from this draft are beginning to become All-Stars like 11th overall selection Garrett Crochet or solidify themselves as a bust. First overall selection Spencer Torkelson hasn’t worked out so well for the Detroit Tigers.
It’s a true shame the Mets didn’t hold onto Crow-Armstrong for a couple of reasons. Especially now with David Stearns heading up the front office, a glove-first center fielder would be someone he would probably enjoy building around.
As much as the Mets get ragged on for trading PCA, let's not forget how exceptionally good Javier Baez and Trevor Williams were as members of the Mets.
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