3 reasons the NY Mets trading for Juan Soto never made sense

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Baseball's offseason has gotten off to a relatively slow start. A few notable names have changed teams, such as Craig Kimbrel, Eugenio Suarez, Sonny Gray, and Eduardo Rodriguez, but the biggest dominos have yet to fall as the league awaits the decisions of Shohei Ohtani and countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Wednesday night finally brought the first seismic event of the hot stove season, and it was a doozy. Juan Soto is now a New York Yankee.

Soto is one of the brightest young stars in the game, and after finding out that he was headed to the Bronx, many fans of the New York Mets were left wondering why their team stayed on the sideline rather than make a play for such an obvious talent.

Soto spent the first 4+ years of his career playing for the Washington Nationals, so it's fair for Mets fans that had a front row seat to his ascension into the ranks of baseball's elite players to wonder why the Mets didn't make a push to acquire a player with his prodigious power and superlative plate discipline.

Any team could benefit from having Juan Soto in its everyday lineup, particularly the Mets, whose only surefire outfield producer heading into the 2024 season is Brandon Nimmo. Why then, is Soto currently being fitted for pinstripes? Let's take a look.

1. The Mets' biggest need is pitching

Even an owner with the Scrooge McDuck-like bankroll of Steve Cohen isn't able to just snap his fingers and get any player he wants. The Mets splurged in the past two offseasons on splashy moves, signing Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander to lucrative deals, and it's fair to say that those moves didn't immediately pay off in the way fans hoped they would.

Cohen and new president of baseball operations David Stearns have espoused a philosophy of patience and player development since Stearns was officially brought on in September, making it unlikely that the Mets would again be the offseason's biggest mover and shaker.

After finishing in fourth place in the N.L. East with a 75-87 record, the Mets clearly need to make upgrades, even if those upgrades aren't of the blockbuster variety. The biggest need, by far, isn't the outfield, though. It's starting pitching.

Following his phenomenal rookie season, Kodai Senga is the ace of a staff that, as of now, is looking extremely thin. Scherzer and Verlander were both dealt at the deadline this past season, and though neither quite lived up to their Hall of Fame pedigrees while wearing orange and blue, they were still net positives.

Jose Quintana is the Mets nominal #2, and after that it's anyone's guess. David Peterson and Tylor Megill are Mets veterans by now, but we've seen enough from both to know that neither offers more than fifth starter upside. Many people are high on Mike Vasil, but with a 5.30 ERA in AAA last year, he's anything but a sure thing.

For the Mets to be competitive next season and beyond, they need to add at least two quality arms to their staff. The team is all-in on signing Japanese export Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and there are still many other starters potentially available either through free agency or trade that Mets fans would be excited to have, such as Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, and Tyler Glasnow.

Young help is on the way for the Mets lineup in the form of Ronny Mauricio, Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuna, and Jett Williams. The same can't be said for the pitching staff. Soto would have been a huge addition, but the smarter play is for the Mets to get all the pitching they can.

2. The Mets couldn't offer a package that would have enticed San Diego

The Padres made it clear to teams interested in acquiring Soto that they coveted young pitching above all else, and that's something that is in short supply in the Mets' farm system.

The Yankees sealed the deal by sending five players to the Padres for Soto and fellow outfielder Trent Grisham. Of those five, four are pitchers, and none are older than 28. Michael King is the headliner of the deal, a righty that graduated from the bullpen into a role as an incredibly effective starter down the stretch for the Yankees, where he allowed only five runs in five September starts.

Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez have also shown the ability to start and pitch in relief, which gives the Padres added flexibility in the likely event that they lose reigning N.L. Cy Young winner Blake Snell and All-Star closer Josh Hader to free agency. Drew Thorpe, who finished the year with the Yankees' AA affiliate, has already been ranked as the sixth-best prospect in San Diego's farm system according to MLB.com.

Three of those pitchers are already MLB tested, and the Mets have nothing comparable to offer. Mike Vasil and Blade Tidwell are the highest-ranked pitching prospects in the Mets' system, and MLB.com ranks them eighth and ninth, respectively, so it's doubtful that even they would have been enough to sway Padres GM A.J. Preller. Even if they were, gutting the farm system for one player would go against the "build from within" ethos that Cohen and Stearns share for the long-term vision of the franchise.

3. There's no guarantee of keeping Soto beyond this upcoming season

Soto's contract runs for only one more season. Is it worth it to pay a high price for a player that could end up only a one-year rental? Perhaps for one of the few teams that is on the cusp of competing for a World Series, but after last year, the Mets can't realistically count themselves among that group.

Scott Boras clients typically test the free agent waters, and the prevailing sentiment around Major League Baseball is that Soto will be no exception. He projects to have suitors lined up around the block for his services at this time next year, especially after the eye-popping numbers he's likely to put up by hitting to Yankee Stadium's short right field porch.

Boras and Soto have done nothing to dispel the rumors that Soto intends to be a free agent. Is it possible that Soto will love being part of the most decorated franchise in sports? Absolutely. Could he love being on the biggest stage after spending his career in Washington and San Diego? Sure. Could being on the Yankees provide the perfect cover that he's incapable of growing a mustache? Who can say! Maybe Soto falls in love with the Yankees and signs an extension before becoming a free agent, but it's far from a sure thing, and it would have been even less so if he got traded to the Mets.

The Mets have recent experience with renter's remorse, having shipped first-round pick Pete Crow-Armstrong to the Cubs in exchange for 47 tumultuous games of the Javy Baez Experience. Crow-Armstrong is now the top-ranked prospect in Chicago, and after a cup of coffee at the big league level in September, he's ready to make a real impact in 2024.

If the Yankees aren't able to extend Soto, I feel confident that the Mets will make a play for him in 2024. All that will cost is money, something Steve Cohen has quite a bit of. Giving up prospects for a player that could bolt after this year, however, isn't the smart play. Not for this franchise, not right now.

I believe that David Stearns is going to run this team well. Sometimes it's the moves you don't make.

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