3 Mets hitters playing better than their numbers say they are
The New York Mets offense has been a bit thin compared to last year's performance. However, some Mets hitters have been underperforming due to circumstances that do not demonstrate the absolute reality of the results.
Some hitters have been getting hurt by good plays or just bad luck. To demonstrate this, we will use an analysis of advanced metrics described through Statcast Expected Stats about which players could start to show better numbers than they appear to have at the moment.
Believe it or not but Mets slugger Pete Alonso could have even better numbers
Pete Alonso is the offensive leader of the Mets. He currently has six homers, twelve RBIs and eleven runs scored with a .250/.345/.646/.991 line.
Looking at these, it doesn't seem like there is much room for improvement but there is. According to advanced metrics, Pete Alonso's batting average (xBA) should be around .344 with an expected SLG (xSLG) of .738.
Although the Polar Bear has been productive in terms of power, his hits have not been reflected in the same way, these being barely double his home runs. This explains why the average is so low.
Alonso's hits have been connecting with hard-hit contact but have found themselves in positions or angles where he has been out, which gives room for improvement in the probability of a ball with the speed, power, and launch angle of Pete's. Additionally, there are some factors that, if adjusted to his historical average as a hitter, will reflect better results.
His ratio of fly balls to ground balls is low, which means that his tendency to hit ground balls has increased, decreasing the opportunity to obtain better results when lifting the ball. Also, his launch angle and hard-hit contact are below his level, which leaves room for more hits, extra bases, and possibly more home runs.
On the other hand, some factors have improved considerably and one of them has been a headache in his career, his chase rate. So far this year, Alonso has shown more discipline by decreasing, from 2022 to 2023, his chase from shots outside the zone by 32 percentage points and has increased his BB% from 9.8 to 11.8.
The above shows that Pete Alonso's numbers should be even better than those currently shown. We could be witnessing perhaps Alonso's best offensive campaign of his major league career this year.