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3 Mets hitters playing better than their numbers say they are
The New York Mets offense has been a bit thin compared to last year's performance. However, some Mets hitters have been underperforming due to circumstances that do not demonstrate the absolute reality of the results.
Some hitters have been getting hurt by good plays or just bad luck. To demonstrate this, we will use an analysis of advanced metrics described through Statcast Expected Stats about which players could start to show better numbers than they appear to have at the moment.
Believe it or not but Mets slugger Pete Alonso could have even better numbers
Pete Alonso is the offensive leader of the Mets. He currently has six homers, twelve RBIs and eleven runs scored with a .250/.345/.646/.991 line.
Looking at these, it doesn't seem like there is much room for improvement but there is. According to advanced metrics, Pete Alonso's batting average (xBA) should be around .344 with an expected SLG (xSLG) of .738.
Although the Polar Bear has been productive in terms of power, his hits have not been reflected in the same way, these being barely double his home runs. This explains why the average is so low.
Alonso's hits have been connecting with hard-hit contact but have found themselves in positions or angles where he has been out, which gives room for improvement in the probability of a ball with the speed, power, and launch angle of Pete's. Additionally, there are some factors that, if adjusted to his historical average as a hitter, will reflect better results.
His ratio of fly balls to ground balls is low, which means that his tendency to hit ground balls has increased, decreasing the opportunity to obtain better results when lifting the ball. Also, his launch angle and hard-hit contact are below his level, which leaves room for more hits, extra bases, and possibly more home runs.
On the other hand, some factors have improved considerably and one of them has been a headache in his career, his chase rate. So far this year, Alonso has shown more discipline by decreasing, from 2022 to 2023, his chase from shots outside the zone by 32 percentage points and has increased his BB% from 9.8 to 11.8.
The above shows that Pete Alonso's numbers should be even better than those currently shown. We could be witnessing perhaps Alonso's best offensive campaign of his major league career this year.
We are heading to a Marte Party soon
Starling Marte has been a great addition to the Mets' ensemble. Marte is an exceptional hitter in any lineup due to his high contact capacity, speed, and great arm in the outfield.
So far in 2023, Starling has been hitting well to a .268/.348/.415/.763 line with 11 hits in 41 at-bats. The Dominican has been effective in stolen bases with four and only one caught stealing.
However, advanced metrics suggest that Mars has been underperforming. His xBA suggests Marte should be hitting around .300 with an xSLG of .470. Marte is third on the team in expected batting quality as measured by the xwOBA.
The Mets' outfielder's numbers are expected to improve and are measured based on his hitting power. This 2023 Marte is batting with better hard-hit contact and barrel% than last year, which projects a greater probability of hit but so far some plays have found the opponent's glove.
Starling has also improved in her swing-and-miss percentage, in almost 9 points less in her K%. He as other hitters on the team, has an elite OBP so far this season.
Undoubtedly, everything indicates that Starling Marte will begin to show better numbers as the season progresses. This is vital to the Mets' offense because of its multiplier effect at the top of the lineup, and its speed on the bases, guaranteeing a better opportunity for the team to score runs and win games.
We're all Pham of Tommy right now
Tommy Pham was a hated player throughout spring training. However, he has been quite timely with the bat in the small sample that he has had to operate.
Pham is hitting .276 with a .474 SLG, five RBIs, and eight hits in 29 at-bats. It's been pretty timely with the bat coming off the bench and contributing hits in pressing moments of the game.
However, Pham should be producing even more based on advanced metrics suggesting he should get more playing time for the future results he could have. Pham's xBA ranked at .317 and his xSLG at .520.
The outfielder has been striking out 8% less than in 2022 and has had a higher barrel but at bat than in previous years. Pham could even improve if he starts lifting the ball more since his fly-ball-to-ground-ball ratio is the lowest of his career. This shows that an improvement adjustment is still missing.
Tommy Pham ranks in the top 13% of the league in average exit velocity and the top 5% in chase rate, indicating good discipline and power in his swing. He's been hitting well on every pitch, having better luck against the fastball.
Pham will start to put up better numbers as games and at-bats progress. The data confirms that the outfielder should be having more opportunities at the plate, being able to help the teams with more offensive production.
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