Way too early predictions for former NY Mets in the 2025 Hall of Fame vote

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The 2024 Hall of Fame voting results were announced on Tuesday and no former New York Mets players were elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, and Todd Helton, instead, all reached the 75 percent threshold needed for election.

Billy Wagner, Carlos Beltran, Bobby Abreu, Francisco Rodriguez, and David Wright will return to the ballot next year, while Curtis Granderson is likely to be considered for the first time.
Meanwhile, Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Adrian Gonzalez, and Bartolo Colon all appeared on the ballot for the first time, but none reached the 5.0 percent plateau needed to stay on for another year.

And so, the bickering among baseball fans and writers continues on for another year regarding the Hall of Fame for 2025, but let's predict how the former Mets will do in next year's voting.

Billy Wagner

Billy Wagner has a compelling case to the Hall of Fame as one of the greatest left-handed relievers in baseball history. He mad the All-Star team seven times (including twice with the Mets in 2007 and 2008), and registered 422 saves during his 16-year career (101 as a Met), which ranks second all-time among lefty relievers, two behind John Franco.

His 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings is the best among pitchers with more than 900 innings pitched, while his career ERA+ of 187 ranks second all-time among pitcher with 500 or more innings pitched to Mariano Rivera.

2025 will be Billy Wagner's 10th and final season on the BBWAA ballot, but he came really close this year, getting 73.8 percent of the vote, or just 5 votes short. Next year has got to be the year he gets in. He belongs in the Hall of Fame. It would be a colossal failure by the voters to keep him out as an elected member.

Prediction: Billy Wagner gets 77.5 percent of the vote in 2025 and will be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran has a fascinating case as well, thanks to his durability and consistently high level of play during his 20-year career with eight teams, including the Mets. Beltran is the first switch-hitter in baseball history with 300 home runs and 300 stolen bases, amassed 2,725 hits, was a nine-time All-Star, and is tied for the most home run in a single postseason with eight in his legendary 2004 playoff run with the Houston Astros.

Beltran's prime years came with the Mets, where he played from 2005-11, and it is possible that Beltran will wear a Mets cap if he gets inducted. Beltran won three Gold Gloves and two Silver Slugger awards in center field as a Met.

Beltran improved from 46.0 percent of the vote on his first of the ballot (last year) to 57.0 percent in 2024. The only reason Beltran is not in the Hall of Fame yet is because his role in the Astros' 2017 cheating scandal caused some pause among the voters, but it feels like he is two to three years away from getting inducted.

Prediction: Carlos Beltran will get 65.0 percent of the Hall of Fame vote next year, but will remain on the ballot in 2026.

Bobby Abreu

Bobby Abreu only spent one season with the Mets, which was his last in 2014, but he carved out a nice career before. Abreu was best known for his intelligent hitting, collecting 2,470 hits, 288 home runs, 400 stolen bases, and a .291 batting average in 18 seasons with six different teams, most of it with the Philadelphia Phillies.

As a Met at 40 years old in 2014, Abreu was as disciplined as ever, as his stirkeout-to-walk ratio was nearly one-to-one, though he didn't make hard contact like he used to, limiting his batting average to .248. Nonetheless, he was well-received by the players and the fans.

Abreu received just 14.8 percent of the vote this year after getting 15.4 percent of the ballots last year, so it is not a very good sign for his Hall of Fame chances. Plus, he was rarely listed among the 20-25 best players in the game during his peak. If there was a "Hall of Very Good", that is where Abreu would wind up.

Prediction: Bobby Abreu will get 13.5 percent of the Hall of Fame vote next year, but will remain on the ballot in 2026.

Francisco Rodriguez

Francisco Rodriguez started his career as one of the most electrifying relief pitchers baseball had ever seen, earning the nickname "K-Rod". Hs contributions to the 2002 Anaheim Angels championship run, and his 2008 season where he set the single-season saves record with 62 put him on a fast track fo the Hall of Fame that he eventually derailed. Overall, he finished his 16-year career with 437 saves and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, while earning six trips to the All-Star Game (including one in 2009 with the Mets).

K-Rod's career with the Mets was a tumultous one, full of off-field incidents, which shortened his career there. However, he turned in 83 saves in three years in Flushing.

It is rare to see a player see his Hall of Fame vote share decline from the first year to the second, but that's what happened with K-Rod this year, as his vote share decreased from 10.8 percent last year to 7.8 percent from Tuesday's results. He will likely get one more year on the ballot before he drops below 5.0 percent (and this is being generous).

Prediction: Francisco Rodriguez will get 5.5 percent of the Hall of Fame vote next year, but will remain on the ballot in 2026.

David Wright

A big question this year was whether David Wright would get above the 5.0 percent threshold in his first year of eligibility. Thankfully, he did, getting 6.2 percent of the vote this year, so he will get at least another year on the ballot. But for Wright, who will likely have his No. 5 jersey retired at some point, who knows how long this will last.

In his career, which spanned 14 seasons in Flushing, Wright hit .296 with 242 home runs, 970 RBI's, 1,777 hits, 196 stolen bases, 390 doubles, and an OPS+ of 133, was a seven-time All-Star, with two Gold Gloves, and two Silver Slugger awards.

Wright's numbers should increase, as his career averages are better than that of Chase Utley, who received 28.8 percent of the vote this year, also in his first year of eligiblity.

Prediction: David Wright will receive 10.0 percent of the Hall of Fame vote next year, but will remain on the ballot in 2026.

Curtis Granderson

Curtis Granderson is likely the only ex-Met who will be a newcomer to Hall of Fame consideration, as 2025 marks his first year of voter eligibility, and his home run power will surge him to the ballot. In his 16-year career with seven different teams, Granderson was named to three All-Star teams, hit 344 home runs, collected 1,800 hits, and scored 1,217 runs, while making incredible community service impacts along the way.

Granderson spent four of his years with the Mets, and hit 95 home runs. He was the leadoff hitter for the Mets in their 2015 World Series season after being signed to be their cleanup hitter.

But Granderson feels like a one-and-done candidate. His career .249 batting average and 113 OPS+ feel too low for the voters to consider, especially with potentially a dozen more compelling candidates above him, and his defensive metrics won't make up the deficiencies of his offensive game.

Prediction: Curtis Granderson will receive 1.0 percent of the Hall of Fame vote next year and will be eliminated from the ballot in 2026.

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Way too early predictions on former Mets players in the 2025 Hall of Fame vote