Grading the 2023 NY Mets first half starting pitcher performances

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Grades are in for the New York Mets starting pitching for the first half, and it's been not the season the Mets and their fans had hoped for from their starters, similar to their position players, which we documented on here yesterday. The starting pitching ranks in the bottom half in the majors in almost every major category, and with more than $100 million in collective salaries invested in the rotation, it's been inconceivable watching this unfold.

But, alas, we must grade them anyways, and for this article, we will grade the starters who have made five or more starts, and there are seven of them. As for our evaluations on position players from yesterday, we will sort based on a certain stat from highest to lowest, and it will be based on innings pitched.

Kodai Senga - 2023 Mets starting pitcher first half grade

1st Half Stats: 89.2 IP, 16 starts, 7-5, 3.31 ERA, 113 K, 47 BB, 125 ERA+ .204 AVG against

Lost in the shuffle of the Mets' porous first half was how awesome Kodai Senga was in his first half as an MLB pitcher. And the Mets needed this, given how battered and bruised the rotation has been. It took some adjusting of routine from Japan to the U.S., but Senga belonged on the All-Star team because he was one of the 10 best starting pitchers in the NL. His ghost forkball has been an enjoyable watch too, as it was in Japan for more than a decade.

Grade: A

Max Scherzer - 2023 Mets starting pitcher first half grade

1st Half Stats: 87.2 IP, 16 starts, 8-3, 4.31 ERA, 101 K, 23 BB, 96 ERA+, 18 HR allowed

Max Scherzer has already allowed more runs and home runs than he did all of last year, which is probably the most damning indictment of his season so far. In other news, batting average is up, walks are up, and strikeouts are down (slightly). But it was also other things that contributed to this mess of a first half for him, including a 10-game suspension for having a sticky substance on the mound. But nonetheless, in the big starts this year, he's come up small, and an ERA+ below league average won't cut it for someone making $43.3 million this year.

Grade: C

Tylor Megill - 2023 Mets starting pitcher first half grade

1st Half Stats: 71.1 IP, 15 starts, 6-4, 5.17 ERA, 58 K, 39 BB, 80 ERA+, 1.668 WHIP

Megill has been hit hard all year long, but this year, his breaking stuff has been quite ineffective. Opponents hit .061 against his slider last year. This year, with a 1.6 mph in slider velocity, they've hit .267 with 4 home runs. In fact, the dip in velocity occurred with all four of his pitches, and it led to bad results. Also, his walk rate has nearly doubled and his strikeout rate has been cut by nearly a third. Among the 59 pitchers with 60 or more innings pitched, Megill's 1.668 WHIP is the highest. His velocity better get back up, or else his major league career will end sooner rather than later.

Grade: D+

Justin Verlander - 2023 Mets starting pitcher first half grade

1st Half Stats: 70.0 IP, 12 starts, 3-4, 3.60 ERA, 57 K, 19 BB, 115 ERA+, .293 OBP against

Verlander missed the first month of the season due to injury, but has put up some respectable numbers thus far, though it is nowhere near where he was last year when he won the Cy Young in the American League for the Houston Astros. But what's allowed Verlander to be valuable to this team is his ability to go deep into games. Verlander pitched six innings or more in seven of his 12 starts in the first half, and threw 100 or more pitches in five of them. And for someone making $43.3 million this season, he'll need to keep giving the Mets six innings or more per start.

Grade: B

Carlos Carrasco - 2023 Mets starting pitcher first half grade

1st Half Stats: 61.0 IP, 12 starts, 3-3, 5.16 ERA, 43 K, 27 BB, 80 ERA+, 5.95 FIP

The idea of picking up Carrasco's $14 million option for this season was that he'd be able to go deep enough into games and give the Mets the best chance to win and that their other free agent pitchers would sign elsewhere (which they did). However, Carrasco has not given the Mets great chances to win.

Carrasco has generally come up small in the big moments this year, unlike last year where he was able to get out jams all the time with his putaway pitches. Carrasco gave up 12 home runs in the first half, compared to 17 last year in 152 innings, and opponents are batting .311 with runner in scoring position, compared to just .248 last year. As a result, his shorter starts have led to a taxed bullpen that was relentlessly exposed in June, and he might not survive the trade deadline.

Grade: C-

David Peterson - 2023 Mets starting pitcher first half grade

1st Half Stats: 54.1 IP, 11 starts, 2-7, 6.46 ERA, 60 K, 22 BB, 64 ERA-, .305 AVG against

This season, especially the first six weeks, was a brutal watch for David Peterson, because everything that could have gone wrong, did. Although his walk rate is down and strikeout rate is still above league average, Peterson still had trouble putting away hitters because his fastball and sinker velocities have dipped, leading to more foul balls and longer at-bats, and more importantly, a loss of confidence. That confidence kept creeping lower to the point that he needed six weeks in the minor leagues to regain his confidence back. He was the top culprit behind the Mets' pitching woes during the first two months of the season.

Since getting called back up two weeks ago, he turned in three starts, two of them really good, and one not terrible, which spares him from a failing grade in the first half. Now the second half is about continuing to gain self-confidence. He'll need to do that, especially since his first round of salary arbitration takes place this upcoming winter.

Grade: D-

Joey Lucchesi - 2023 Mets starting pitcher first half grade

1st Half Stats: 22.1 IP, 5 starts, 1-0, 4.43 ERA, 17 K, 8 BB, 95 ERA+, 4 home runs allowed

Joey Lucchesi triumphantly returned from Tommy John surgery when he tossed seven scoreless innings on April 21 against the Giants in San Francisco. The next four starts were not as effective, although one of his starts was cut short due to rain. He was sent down to the minors to make room for Brooks Raley on the active roster, who was due to come off the injured list. His first half stats, overall, were not bad, and there is a good chance he'll get another opportunity with the Mets in the majors before the season is over.

Grade: B-

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