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1 reason Mets fans should be confident for Game 3, 1 to feel neutral, 1 to start sweating
The Mets have been a rollercoaster of emotions this October. It's not going away leading into Game 3 of the NLDS.
Winning one of the two games against the Philadelphia Phillies in their ballpark was a must for the New York Mets to head back to Citi Field with any sort of confidence. The Mets nearly got them both. Then again, the Phillies could say the same.
Can the Mets just play a game already where it doesn’t feel like life or death? Are the MLB playoffs always this much fun? Excuse us. It has been a while since we’ve cared.
Tied 1-1 with three to play, there are reasons for Mets fans to remain confident in the team. But after the way they lost Game 2, you aren’t going to ride the 7-Line to the game without some perspiration.
Remain confident in the Mets because they played two very good games against the Phillies
The Mets loss in Game 2 wasn’t a brutal one. Call me crazy, it was as close to a “good loss” as the team could have had. Luis Severino pitched fine (until he didn’t). The bullpen usage was strange yet a result of not having enough available arms Carlos Mendoza could trust. This won’t be a factor on Tuesday with the day off on Monday.
Strangely, the weakest point of the Mets in the first two games of the NLDS were the first innings against Zack Wheeler. He shut them down completely. All the while the Mets pitching staff did the same against Philadelphia with the lone exception being the Kyle Schwarber leadoff home run.
These teams are far more evenly matched than their regular season records or even what it says on paper. Most aspects of the Phillies are superior to the Mets. That doesn’t matter in the playoffs. It’s about who is hotter and who can take advantage of situations more frequently.
Yes, the Mets bullpen blew it in Game 2 with Edwin Diaz as the main culprit. Once is a mistake. Twice is a pattern. Three times is a habit. Save the bad habits for us, Mr. Diaz. We’ve already chewed through our nails multiple times this week.
Feel neutral about the Mets because of the numbers against Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea
The Phillies saved their second-best pitcher for Game 3. Conveniently, he pitches against the Mets’ number one guy, Sean Manaea. Let’s call this pitching matchup a wash and leave it up to other elements to decide—unless the Mets do what they’ve regularly accomplished against Nola.
Nola has not performed well against the Mets and specifically the players on the roster. Pete Alonso has homered 5 times against him and has a .320 batting average. The entire roster, including guys who won’t grab a bat like Jose Quintana and David Peterson, have slashed a combined .272/.332/.444 against him.
Before getting too confident with those results, it’s worth seeing how the Phillies hitters have pummeled Manaea. The .309/.346/.680 lifetime slash line is even worse with Nick Castellanos doing a ton of damage with 3 home runs in 16 at-bats. Manaea is a bit more puzzling of a pitcher to predict because this year was much different than past seasons.
Neither of the first two games was decided by the starting pitcher. In Game 3, it might only matter about who can go deeper. It feels like we’re going to get some sort of an extreme result with an early exit or 6+ from both.
Start sweating about the Mets because postseason experience should help the Phillies
The last time the Mets were in the NLDS or further was in 2015. A nine year layoff with many members of this organization having not been beyond the first round of the playoffs in their entire career, we need to give the Phillies a distinct advantage if experience ends up mattering. It should. They’ve been to the NLDS (and won against the Atlanta Braves) in two consecutive years. They never had their chance to do it with home field advantage, though.
We can toss home field advantage in the NLDS into the trash can. It clearly doesn’t matter. Whether it’s the irrelevance of where the game takes place, who gets last ups, the energy of the crowd, or even the layoff from playing games for several days, results have proven wearing road grays offers no disadvantage in the early round.
What the Mets severely lack is going this far together. They do have a couple of World Series winners on the roster. It’s good to have Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek in the bullpen because they’ve done this before. J.D. Martinez, too, gives the lineup someone familiar with this spotlight.
The Phillies have familiarized themselves with the playoffs in the last couple of seasons. A National League pennant in 2022 and nearly another in 2023 with much of the roster intact for a third straight year, jitters aren’t going to concern them. Mets players have spoken about their nerves early on in the playoffs. They looked tight in their Game 2 loss. Since taking down the Milwaukee Brewers, they’ve been looser. Don’t get too complacent. The stage remains a big one.
There is nothing the Mets can do to counter the experience the Phillies have. As much as we want to analyze the mental aspect or decision-making by the coaches, this is a series that will be decided by the player performances.
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