3 players the Mets correctly passed on, and 1 they should have signed

The New York Mets have emerged from a volatile offseason significantly improved – but it’s fair to wonder whether they were right or wrong in passing on some big-name players.

Yes, there were plenty of headlines for the Mets this winter. They have new leadership in the front office with general manager Billy Eppler and in the dugout with Buck Showalter. They added future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer and first-time All-Star Chris Bassitt to a rotation recently named the best in baseball. They fortified the lineup with veterans like Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha.

But for all the work done, there were just as many names linked to the Mets who won’t be calling Citi Field home in 2022.

Several key holdovers from the 2021 team like Marcus Stroman, Michael Conforto, Javier Baez, and Aaron Loup did not break camp with the Mets in Port St. Lucie this spring. Other notable free agents such as Kris Bryant, Kevin Gausman, and Carlos Rodón were rumored to be in talks with the Mets, but ultimately signed elsewhere.

Did the Mets make the right choices? Were there missed opportunities, or conversely, opportunities rightly left alone?

The perception of a team winning or losing the offseason, as the saying goes, doesn’t necessarily predicate future performance. No one will really know the answers to these questions until games are played. With that said, let’s look at three players the Mets were wise to pass on in free agency and one who they might regret letting go.

Wise to pass on: Kris Bryant

Bryant was linked to the Mets as a potential trade deadline target back in early 2021 before going to San Francisco and helping the Giants win a division title. Naturally, rumors connecting Bryant and the Mets resurfaced once the four-time All-Star hit free agency this past winter.

The second overall pick in the 2013 draft made an immediate impact upon debuting with the Chicago Cubs just two years later. Bryant won National League Rookie of the Year honors in 2015 and the Most Valuable Player award the following year as part of the Cubs’ first World Series championship team in over a century.

After a top-10 MVP finish in 2017, however, Bryant hasn’t quite reached the high bar he set for himself since. He was limited to 102 games in 2018, rebounded to a .903 OPS in 2019, but then sunk to just a .206 batting average in 2020 as the Cubs’ championship window came to an end.

Bryant has enhanced his value in recent years with defensive versatility, having played six defensive positions in 2021. And yes, he did have a productive year offensively, with 25 home runs and a .835 OPS split between Chicago and San Francisco.

But the reality is that Bryant’s stock has changed as he enters his age 30 season. After averaging over 6 Wins-Above-Replacement his first three seasons (per Baseball-Reference), the veteran has just 10.5 WAR total in the four years since.

Ultimately, Bryant parlayed that performance into a seven-year, $182 million deal with the Colorado Rockies – a surprise considering the team’s faint chances of competing in the short-term. While he certainly would have added versatility and an experienced playoff bat, the Mets were wise not to overpay.

Wise to pass on: Carlos Rodon

Coming out of the lockout, Carlos Rodón was arguably the best free agent starting pitcher still available – and for good reason. The left-hander had a breakout season in 2021, finishing fifth in American League Cy Young voting with 13 wins and a 2.37 ERA for the division-wining Chicago White Sox. The former first-round pick allowed less than two earned runs in 16 of his 24 outings, including a no-hitter against Cleveland on April 14.

Last season’s success, however, did not translate to a long-term deal for the 29-year-old. Rodón eventually signed with the San Francisco Giants on a two-year, $44 million deal that includes an opt-out clause after 2022, meaning he can hit the open market again next year.

The lack of long-term offers correlates directly to Rodón’s pre-2021 resume and is exactly why the Mets were right to pass on him, even for a short-term deal. Over parts of six seasons from 2015-2020, Rodón owned a 4.14 ERA, good for just around league average. Control has also been an issue in the past, with 3.9 walks per nine innings over the same timeframe.

Aside from performance, Rodón has a history of injuries that likely gave interested teams pause. After making 51 starts in his first two seasons, the lefty made just 39 starts over the next three years and only four total appearances in 2020. Even last year, injuries and arm fatigue plagued Rodón down the stretch, as he logged just 28 innings over the final two months of the regular season and lasted just 2.2 innings in his only postseason start.

The Mets addressed their need for another starting pitcher post-lockout by trading with Oakland for Chris Bassitt. The key difference in acquiring Bassitt versus Rodon (aside from giving up prospects) is that Bassitt represents a more known commodity over the past few years than Rodón, both in terms of performance consistency and staying on the field. It’s very possible Rodón will build on his recent success, but with questions surrounding the back of the Mets rotation already, the risk associated with signing him was not worth it.

Should Have Signed: Aaron Loup

If there’s one glaring hole on the Mets’ roster going into this season, it’s the lack of a high-leverage left-handed reliever. Sure, they’ve brought in capable veterans like Chasen Shreve and Alex Claudio on minor league deals, but failing to retain their best reliever from a year ago might prove costly.

Aaron Loup certainly went above and beyond that billing in 2021. He didn’t just have a career year – he had perhaps the best season a Mets reliever has ever had, with an eye-popping 0.95 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over 56 2/3 innings. Against left-handed hitters, Loup surrendered just two extra-base hits the entire year, holding them to a .167 batting average and .440 OPS in 93 plate appearances.

Yes, repeating a season like that is nearly impossible and surely means some degree of regression in 2022. And yes, he did get a large contract to join the Los Angeles Angels. And yes, history shows that performance from relievers can be volatile year to year.

But for Loup, it was clear he had put it all together with the Mets. He proved capable of delivering in high-leverage situations and did so in the biggest media market – something that not every player (even some of the greatest) can navigate.

Compounding the issue for the Mets is how much other teams in the division have improved – particularly from the left side of the plate. The Braves may have let Freddie Freeman go west, but they more than adequately replaced him with Matt Olson, a top-10 American League MVP candidate last year. The Phillies brought in Kyle Schwarber, who bludgeoned the Mets for nine home runs in 10 games last season, to pair with Bryce Harper. The Nationals may not contend this year, but they still have arguably the best young left-handed hitter in the game, Juan Soto.

The Mets must hope an internal candidate can replace even some of Loup’s lost production. Otherwise, there will be a clear need for a lefty reliever at the trade deadline in July.