3 players the Mets correctly passed on, and 1 they should have signed

The New York Mets have emerged from a volatile offseason significantly improved – but it’s fair to wonder whether they were right or wrong in passing on some big-name players.

Yes, there were plenty of headlines for the Mets this winter. They have new leadership in the front office with general manager Billy Eppler and in the dugout with Buck Showalter. They added future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer and first-time All-Star Chris Bassitt to a rotation recently named the best in baseball. They fortified the lineup with veterans like Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha.

But for all the work done, there were just as many names linked to the Mets who won’t be calling Citi Field home in 2022.

Several key holdovers from the 2021 team like Marcus Stroman, Michael Conforto, Javier Baez, and Aaron Loup did not break camp with the Mets in Port St. Lucie this spring. Other notable free agents such as Kris Bryant, Kevin Gausman, and Carlos Rodón were rumored to be in talks with the Mets, but ultimately signed elsewhere.

Did the Mets make the right choices? Were there missed opportunities, or conversely, opportunities rightly left alone?

The perception of a team winning or losing the offseason, as the saying goes, doesn’t necessarily predicate future performance. No one will really know the answers to these questions until games are played. With that said, let’s look at three players the Mets were wise to pass on in free agency and one who they might regret letting go.

Wise to pass on: Kris Bryant

Bryant was linked to the Mets as a potential trade deadline target back in early 2021 before going to San Francisco and helping the Giants win a division title. Naturally, rumors connecting Bryant and the Mets resurfaced once the four-time All-Star hit free agency this past winter.

The second overall pick in the 2013 draft made an immediate impact upon debuting with the Chicago Cubs just two years later. Bryant won National League Rookie of the Year honors in 2015 and the Most Valuable Player award the following year as part of the Cubs’ first World Series championship team in over a century.

After a top-10 MVP finish in 2017, however, Bryant hasn’t quite reached the high bar he set for himself since. He was limited to 102 games in 2018, rebounded to a .903 OPS in 2019, but then sunk to just a .206 batting average in 2020 as the Cubs’ championship window came to an end.

Bryant has enhanced his value in recent years with defensive versatility, having played six defensive positions in 2021. And yes, he did have a productive year offensively, with 25 home runs and a .835 OPS split between Chicago and San Francisco.

But the reality is that Bryant’s stock has changed as he enters his age 30 season. After averaging over 6 Wins-Above-Replacement his first three seasons (per Baseball-Reference), the veteran has just 10.5 WAR total in the four years since.

Ultimately, Bryant parlayed that performance into a seven-year, $182 million deal with the Colorado Rockies – a surprise considering the team’s faint chances of competing in the short-term. While he certainly would have added versatility and an experienced playoff bat, the Mets were wise not to overpay.

Wise to pass on: Javier Baez

After leading the National League East for most of the first half of 2021, the Mets made a deadline trade with the Cubs for Javier Baez to boost the lineup down the stretch. And while they faded, Baez made an intriguing case for being more than just a two-month rental.

In many ways, the infielder’s time with the Mets largely mirrored his career to that point. Another Cubs’ first round pick, Baez came into his own in in 2018 when, at just 25 years old, he finished as the runner-up in the N.L. MVP race with 34 home runs, 111 runs batted in, and a .290 batting average. He largely maintained that level of production the following year, but like his teammate Kris Bryant, cratered to a .599 OPS in 2020.

The prevailing theme over his career is that Baez can be very streaky with the bat. His above-average power and hard-hit rate (percentage of balls in play with an exit velocity greater than 95 mph) are neutralized by his inability to put balls in play on a consistent basis – his career strikeout rate of 29.3 percent is 7.5 points higher than league average since debuting in 2014.

In just two months as a Met, fans saw both sides of Baez at the plate. Across 65 plate appearances in August, Baez hit just .213 with a .671 OPS and 21 strikeouts. Across his final 28 games, however, he hit .347 with a .981 OPS and a more manageable 30 strikeouts across 115 plate appearances. Interestingly, he also had a much more patient approach during that final stretch, with 10 walks in September-October compared to just 18 in the five months prior.

Ultimately, Baez signed a six-year, $140 million deal with the Detroit Tigers that includes an opt-out clause after the second year. There was a lot to like during his time as a Met – his defense at second base was stellar as well – but the penchant for streakiness and some drama caused off the field were enough to make this a wise pass. The Mets are better off banking on a rebound season from Jeff McNeil than committing that large of a contract to Baez.

Should Have Signed: Aaron Loup

If there’s one glaring hole on the Mets’ roster going into this season, it’s the lack of a high-leverage left-handed reliever. Sure, they’ve brought in capable veterans like Chasen Shreve and Alex Claudio on minor league deals, but failing to retain their best reliever from a year ago might prove costly.

Aaron Loup certainly went above and beyond that billing in 2021. He didn’t just have a career year – he had perhaps the best season a Mets reliever has ever had, with an eye-popping 0.95 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over 56 2/3 innings. Against left-handed hitters, Loup surrendered just two extra-base hits the entire year, holding them to a .167 batting average and .440 OPS in 93 plate appearances.

Yes, repeating a season like that is nearly impossible and surely means some degree of regression in 2022. And yes, he did get a large contract to join the Los Angeles Angels. And yes, history shows that performance from relievers can be volatile year to year.

But for Loup, it was clear he had put it all together with the Mets. He proved capable of delivering in high-leverage situations and did so in the biggest media market – something that not every player (even some of the greatest) can navigate.

Compounding the issue for the Mets is how much other teams in the division have improved – particularly from the left side of the plate. The Braves may have let Freddie Freeman go west, but they more than adequately replaced him with Matt Olson, a top-10 American League MVP candidate last year. The Phillies brought in Kyle Schwarber, who bludgeoned the Mets for nine home runs in 10 games last season, to pair with Bryce Harper. The Nationals may not contend this year, but they still have arguably the best young left-handed hitter in the game, Juan Soto.

The Mets must hope an internal candidate can replace even some of Loup’s lost production. Otherwise, there will be a clear need for a lefty reliever at the trade deadline in July.