3 players the Mets correctly passed on, and 1 they should have signed

Wise to pass on: Carlos Rodon

Coming out of the lockout, Carlos Rodón was arguably the best free agent starting pitcher still available – and for good reason. The left-hander had a breakout season in 2021, finishing fifth in American League Cy Young voting with 13 wins and a 2.37 ERA for the division-wining Chicago White Sox. The former first-round pick allowed less than two earned runs in 16 of his 24 outings, including a no-hitter against Cleveland on April 14.

Last season’s success, however, did not translate to a long-term deal for the 29-year-old. Rodón eventually signed with the San Francisco Giants on a two-year, $44 million deal that includes an opt-out clause after 2022, meaning he can hit the open market again next year.

The lack of long-term offers correlates directly to Rodón’s pre-2021 resume and is exactly why the Mets were right to pass on him, even for a short-term deal. Over parts of six seasons from 2015-2020, Rodón owned a 4.14 ERA, good for just around league average. Control has also been an issue in the past, with 3.9 walks per nine innings over the same timeframe.

Aside from performance, Rodón has a history of injuries that likely gave interested teams pause. After making 51 starts in his first two seasons, the lefty made just 39 starts over the next three years and only four total appearances in 2020. Even last year, injuries and arm fatigue plagued Rodón down the stretch, as he logged just 28 innings over the final two months of the regular season and lasted just 2.2 innings in his only postseason start.

The Mets addressed their need for another starting pitcher post-lockout by trading with Oakland for Chris Bassitt. The key difference in acquiring Bassitt versus Rodon (aside from giving up prospects) is that Bassitt represents a more known commodity over the past few years than Rodón, both in terms of performance consistency and staying on the field. It’s very possible Rodón will build on his recent success, but with questions surrounding the back of the Mets rotation already, the risk associated with signing him was not worth it.

Wise to pass on: Javier Baez

After leading the National League East for most of the first half of 2021, the Mets made a deadline trade with the Cubs for Javier Baez to boost the lineup down the stretch. And while they faded, Baez made an intriguing case for being more than just a two-month rental.

In many ways, the infielder’s time with the Mets largely mirrored his career to that point. Another Cubs’ first round pick, Baez came into his own in in 2018 when, at just 25 years old, he finished as the runner-up in the N.L. MVP race with 34 home runs, 111 runs batted in, and a .290 batting average. He largely maintained that level of production the following year, but like his teammate Kris Bryant, cratered to a .599 OPS in 2020.

The prevailing theme over his career is that Baez can be very streaky with the bat. His above-average power and hard-hit rate (percentage of balls in play with an exit velocity greater than 95 mph) are neutralized by his inability to put balls in play on a consistent basis – his career strikeout rate of 29.3 percent is 7.5 points higher than league average since debuting in 2014.

In just two months as a Met, fans saw both sides of Baez at the plate. Across 65 plate appearances in August, Baez hit just .213 with a .671 OPS and 21 strikeouts. Across his final 28 games, however, he hit .347 with a .981 OPS and a more manageable 30 strikeouts across 115 plate appearances. Interestingly, he also had a much more patient approach during that final stretch, with 10 walks in September-October compared to just 18 in the five months prior.

Ultimately, Baez signed a six-year, $140 million deal with the Detroit Tigers that includes an opt-out clause after the second year. There was a lot to like during his time as a Met – his defense at second base was stellar as well – but the penchant for streakiness and some drama caused off the field were enough to make this a wise pass. The Mets are better off banking on a rebound season from Jeff McNeil than committing that large of a contract to Baez.

Should Have Signed: Aaron Loup

If there’s one glaring hole on the Mets’ roster going into this season, it’s the lack of a high-leverage left-handed reliever. Sure, they’ve brought in capable veterans like Chasen Shreve and Alex Claudio on minor league deals, but failing to retain their best reliever from a year ago might prove costly.

Aaron Loup certainly went above and beyond that billing in 2021. He didn’t just have a career year – he had perhaps the best season a Mets reliever has ever had, with an eye-popping 0.95 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over 56 2/3 innings. Against left-handed hitters, Loup surrendered just two extra-base hits the entire year, holding them to a .167 batting average and .440 OPS in 93 plate appearances.

Yes, repeating a season like that is nearly impossible and surely means some degree of regression in 2022. And yes, he did get a large contract to join the Los Angeles Angels. And yes, history shows that performance from relievers can be volatile year to year.

But for Loup, it was clear he had put it all together with the Mets. He proved capable of delivering in high-leverage situations and did so in the biggest media market – something that not every player (even some of the greatest) can navigate.

Compounding the issue for the Mets is how much other teams in the division have improved – particularly from the left side of the plate. The Braves may have let Freddie Freeman go west, but they more than adequately replaced him with Matt Olson, a top-10 American League MVP candidate last year. The Phillies brought in Kyle Schwarber, who bludgeoned the Mets for nine home runs in 10 games last season, to pair with Bryce Harper. The Nationals may not contend this year, but they still have arguably the best young left-handed hitter in the game, Juan Soto.

The Mets must hope an internal candidate can replace even some of Loup’s lost production. Otherwise, there will be a clear need for a lefty reliever at the trade deadline in July.