3 free agents the Mets should avoid at all costs

The New York Mets have some interesting decisions to make in free agency this winter. The priorities are re-signing Edwin Diaz, Jacob deGrom, and Brandon Nimmo, but they’ll also need to make other moves to bolster the rotation and bullpen.

There are also some free agents that don’t fit at all, for various reasons. Here are three free agents the Mets need to avoid.

1) The Mets need to avoid Kenley Jansen

Jansen finished this season with 65 appearances and 64 innings pitched. He allowed 45 hits, 24 earned runs, 22 walks, and struck out 85 batters. His ERA was 3.38, his FIP was 3.21, his WHIP was 1.05, and his ERA+ was 121. He led the National League with 54 games finished and 41 saves.

There are a couple of reasons the Mets can steer clear of him. The first is that, assuming they re-sign Diaz, there’s no point in spending closer money on someone who will be your setup guy. If Diaz is going to get roughly $20 million per year, I don’t want to spend another $15-18 on Jansen.

Another reason is his age. He just turned 35 at the end of September, and he’ll probably garner a three-year deal in the $45-50 million range. I don’t want to be paying him that much as he ages. 

Finally, the last reason the Mets should avoid him, is his control issues. He did lower his walk rate quite a bit (from 4.7 BB.9 in 2021 to 3.1 BB/9 in 2022), but it’s still in the 40th percentile on Baseball Savant. Weirdly enough, his WHIP didn’t go down at all because he allowed more hits this year (6.3 H/9 this year compared to 4.7 H/9 last year). His saving grace was that he still gets a lot of strikeouts (12 K/9).

The Mets seem committed to bringing Diaz back, so combine that fact with Jansen’s age and issues allowing baserunners, there’s just no need to be involved in the Kenley sweepstakes.

3) The Mets need to avoid Noah Syndergaard

Mighty Thor has lost his hammer.

Noah Syndergaard is a completely different pitcher than he used to be. The tall, confident righty who used to throw gas has devolved into a sinkerballer after his Tommy John surgery. He’s lost about four miles per hour on his average fastball, down from about 98 to about 94. That’s in the 55th percentile on Baseball Savant, a stark drop from where he used to be.

The issue with the drop in velocity is the lack of sharpness with his stuff. His spin rates and the break on his pitches are all down, and he has a hard time striking guys out because of that. From 2015 to 2019, Thor averaged 9.7 K/9, and that included two seasons with more than 200 punchouts (218 in 2016 and 202 in 2019). This year, his K/9 plunged to 6.3 and his strikeout rate was in the 12th percentile.

Syndergaard was okay in 2022, making 25 starts and pitching 134.2 innings. He allowed 138 hits, 59 earned runs, 31 walks, and struck out 95 batters. His ERA was 3.94, his FIP was 3.83, his WHIP was 1.32, and his ERA+ was 99, just one tick below average. 

Whichever team winds up bidding for Syndergaard’s services is taking a risk. There’s a chance they could unlock the old Syndergaard by making the changes in the thread above, which means teams like the Astros and Dodgers will be interested. But there’s no guarantee that that’s possible or will work out. You might wind up with a back of the rotation starter or long reliever who just eats innings. The Mets don’t need to take the chance.