5 upcoming NY Mets free agents in for a rude awakening this offseason

2) Jose Quintana

Jose Quintana was able to pick up a nice two-year deal worth $26 million from the Mets ahead of the 2023 season. He missed half of his first season then returned to pitch well. This season, he hasn’t been nearly as spectacular. A string of good games in the middle of the summer doesn’t erase all of the heartache. Quintana just isn’t trustworthy anymore. It goes beyond health.

Next year will be Quintana’s age 36 campaign which puts him in a dangerous territory for a free agent. He’ll end this year with almost 2,000 MLB innings logged. To expect him to suddenly get better would be a major mistake. He’s more of a craftsman than anything else. While milking a few more good starts out of him is possible, it feels inevitable for one or two things to occur as his career progresses.

Quintana will either break down due to age or see his talent completely evaporate. His season numbers for the Mets in 2024 haven’t been completely abysmal. Yet watching him enough you can tell even when he is winning games and getting results that it’s not sustainable. He pitches to too much contact and with an increase in walks and home runs this year, it’ll be hard for a team to view him as anything more than a fifth starter on the cheap. He has been great lately but those dips in his performance are enough of a sign that he doesn't have a high ceiling in the coming year.

3) J.D. Martinez

One of those rude awakenings last offseason was delivered to J.D. Martinez. As great of a teammate, leader, and teacher as he has been for the Mets this year, there have been too many lengthy periods where he didn’t do much. Martinez had a monstrous albeit abbreviated one-year stint with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2023. Even that wasn’t enough to convince teams to push their DH plans aside in order to sign him. The Mets only rerouted when his asking price dropped so insanely low they had no choice but to hand him a pen.

Martinez remains a good run producer but the power is definitely fading more. His slugging percentage will finish more than 100 points lower than it did last season. He’s settling for far more singles than his role suggests he should.

If Martinez played a defensive position, he’d be far more palatable. But because he is reserved as a DH, the suggestion would be for him to hit more home runs.

Health concerns will have teams straying further from Martinez. He could conceivably return to the Mets although they should have a preference to leave the DH spot more open for players to take a half-day.

Already 37-years-old and now a father, maybe Martinez decides to enjoy some time with his newborn daughter instead of chasing down another year of baseball.

4) Harrison Bader

There’s no shot Harrison Bader gets another $10.5 million deal in free agency this offseason, right? He started off his season with the Mets so well. He was, for a long time, their most consistent hitter in terms of batting average. He slotted in perfectly as the number nine hitter. He gave them a second leadoff man who they didn’t have to rely on but benefitted from having around.

Of course, the real hook with Bader is his defense which has remained Gold Glove caliber. How valuable is this to have? The Mets believed it was worth quite a lot.

Bader helped his free agent case only by staying healthy this year. However, another year of teetering with a batting average under .250 and an OBP below .300 will have teams looking at more affordable alternatives. Bader, on a lesser deal, will fit on other ball clubs. Maybe even a return to the Mets as a fourth outfielder could work—he just doesn’t need to play as much as he did originally unless he earns it first.

There will always be a job for a player like Bader in baseball. As long as he realizes the reality involves watching a lot of games from the bench, the awakening shouldn’t be too harsh.

5) Adam Ottavino

It was probably the Mets or nobody else for Adam Ottavino this year. After opting out of his contract, he came back around to re-sign for the same amount but without any deferred money. He turns 39 this November and after such a rough season where he saw himself demoted down the depth chart, retirement could be nearing.

The Mets haven’t done Ottavino any favors in bolstering his free agent stock. Carlos Mendoza lost trust in him long ago. Regularly used in blowouts or late in games where the Mets aren’t going to win, it’s hard to see why the same teams who passed on him last offseason would suddenly have interest this time around. His experience is less valuable than a younger arm with minor league options. His age, despite remaining healthy for most of his career, is a deterrent, too.

Ottavino may have no choice but to retire or sign a minor league deal somewhere. Based on his appearances on SNY last year and the money he has already made on top of the accomplishments in his career, retiring from baseball feels like a reasonable conclusion at the end of 2024. If he can win a World Series with the Mets, that decision should come much more easily.