3 buy low NY Mets free agent targets to pursue

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The New York Mets have been linked to a lot of free agents this winter. They need to make moves to bolster the rotation, bullpen, and a couple of spots in the lineup, so they are exploring plenty of options.

There are a lot of free agents who either got hurt or struggled last season that can be signed for less than they would get in a normal, healthy season. Let’s look at three of those that the Mets should pursue this winter.

1) Taylor Rogers is the lefty the Mets need in their bullpen

Taylor Rogers had a rough first half of 2022 in San Diego, but struggled even more after getting dealt to Milwaukee in the weird Josh Hader trade at the deadline.

On the season, the southpaw made 66 appearances and pitched 64.1 innings. He allowed 57 hits, 34 earned runs, 19 walks, and struck out 84 batters. His ERA was 4.76, his FIP was 3.31, his WHIP was 1.18, and his ERA+ was 81. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was 4.42, which is below his career average, but that’s still a strong number.

His first half was full of bad luck. His ERA in San Diego was 4.35, however, his FIP was 2.34, basically two runs lower. His WHIP was 1.11, his HR/9 was an incredible 0.2, and his K/BB ratio was 5.33/1. If you look at his game logs, he pitched better than his numbers indicate, he just had a few innings blow up on him that jacked up his stats.

Rogers turns 32 in a couple of weeks, so he’s not going to command a long-term deal. MLB Trade rumors projects a 3-year deal worth around $30 million. For a lefty with a career 3.42 ERA who can pitch late in games, that’s a fair price.

2) Cody Bellinger had an insanely impressive start to his career, but he’s struggled over the last couple of years and recently got non-tendered by the Dodgers

Bellinger had the worst full season of his career in 2022. He slashed .210/.265/.389/.654 with 19 homers, 27 doubles, 70 runs scored, and 68 RBI’s. His OPS+ was 78. He only had two offensive Savant categories over the 89th percentile; his average exit velocity was in the 57th percentile, and his barrel rate was in the 54th percentile.

Defense is what kept Bellinger in the lineup. His offensive struggles never interfered with his elite defense in center field, as he posted seven Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in center field. That was in the 92nd percentile, his sprint speed was in the 71st percentile, and his outfielder jump and arm strength were both in the 65th percentile.

It’s good timing for Bellinger to be a free agent because the center field market is really thin, as per usual. Brandon Nimmo is the top option available, but Bellinger slots in next on the list. He will get a chance to prove himself because of his defense alone, plus the hope that the hitting coaches for whatever team he signs with can return him to his peak offensive output.

Bellinger was projected to get about $18 million in arbitration, which was just too much after his offensive struggles. He won’t get that as a free agent either, but I think it’s fair to expect him to get around $10 million. Scott Boras already announced that they only want a one-year deal so he can fix his swing and hit free agency again next year, hopefully with an improved swing. If the Mets don’t get Nimmo, they should absolutely pursue Bellinger.

3) Michael Conforto could be one of the biggest steals of the offseason

Conforto missed all of 2022 due to a shoulder injury, which means he’s looking for a one-year deal to rebuild his value, similar to Bellinger.

From 2017-2019, Conforto averaged a .257/.363/.492/856 slashline with 29 homers, 25 doubles, 81 RBI’s, and an OPS+ of 131. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he was even better, tallying a .322/.412/.515/.927 slashline with an OPS+ of 154.

The lefty was one of the most consistent hitters in baseball from 2017-2020, but for reasons I’ll never understand, shortsighted Mets fans only remember his struggles in 2021.

2021 was a bad year for him. He was playing hurt, and it showed. He slashed .232/.344/.384/.729 with 14 homers and 20 doubles over 125 games. He dealt with a hamstring injury that forced him to miss almost six weeks in the middle of the season, but he did improve a bit after coming back from the IL (.639 OPS before IL stint, .792 after), even though it still wasn’t up to his usual performance.

Then in the offseason, he injured his shoulder while working out. He required season-ending shoulder surgery in April, but he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Just Baseball predicts that he will sign a one-year contract worth $10-13million. For the type of production he’s capable of, and keeping in mind that he plays strong defense in either corner outfield spot, that’s not a bad deal. If it doesn’t work out, it’s only a one year commitment. If he performs the way we know he can, it’s a steal. I would love to see his sweet swing back in Queens.

Next. 3 buy-low trade candidates the Mets should pursue. dark

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