5 best Mets free agent targets who won't cost them $100 million
Finding good value is something David Stearns needs to do for the Mets this offseason
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The New York Mets enter this offseason with a new vision. The goal might not be to go all in to try and win right away like they have done each of the last two offseasons. They're trying to build something sustainable with David Stearns leading the way.
One way to build something sustainable is to not load your team with several free agents on monstrous contracts. There are obvious exceptions to this like Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, two extremely high-end players. A guy like Juan Soto if he hits free agency is another example. The Mets spending money just to spend it won't happen. They're open to expensive deals, but the fit has to be right.
Fortunately, despite a weak free agency class overall, there're several free agents the Mets can sign who will be extremely impactful and cost less than $100 million.
1) Sonny Gray
It's hard to find a pitcher more underratedly consistent than Sonny Gray. More often than not he's there making 30+ starts and pitching like a frontline starter for whatever team he's on.
This season for the Twins, the right-hander posted a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts and 184 innings pitched. He led the league with a 2.83 FIP and 0.4 HR/9. He allowed just eight home runs in 184 innings pitched. If the Mets were to sign him, he'd give Jose Quintana some great competition as to who'd allow fewer home runs next season.
There are certainly questions that have been asked as to whether Gray can handle New York after he failed in his Yankees stint, but my answer to that would be unequivocally yes. A big reason Gray believes he struggled in New York was because the Yankees made him throw more sliders than he was comfortable with. He's reverted back to the pitcher he was in Oakland and has been great in both Cincinnati and Minnesota.
When it comes to dealing with pressure, Gray seems to be fine in that area as he has a 2.39 postseason ERA in five starts including five scoreless innings against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round this season.
Gray could very easily be a Cy Young finalist after finishing second in the AL in ERA and in the top 15 in both innings pitched and strikeouts. He's already finished in the top seven of Cy Young balloting twice in his 11-year career, and this season will certainly be his third. He's absolutely a pitcher worth the $100 million price tag, but the fact that he's 33 years old and will be 34 when he signs his free agent deal makes it unlikely he'll get the years to get to that number.
2) Jordan Montgomery
Jordan Montgomery was a solid mid-rotation arm for the Yankees but has really elevated his game since being traded at the 2022 trade deadline. The southpaw was instrumental to St. Louis winning the NL Central last season, and was pitching well for them again this season before being traded to the Rangers.
Again, Montgomery has elevated his game even more since arriving in Texas. The southpaw had a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts and 67.2 innings pitched down the stretch. That continued into the postseason as he delivered seven shutout innings in Tampa Bay in Game 1 of the Wild Card round for Texas. He allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his 11 regular season starts with the Rangers and 20 of his 32 starts overall. That kind of consistency is something this Mets rotation lacked this past season.
It's certainly possible Montgomery cracks the $100 million mark, but he's only really been this excellent version of himself for a season and a half. He's going to be 31 years old by the time he signs a deal, making it an interesting discussion as to whether teams will be willing to give him the five years or so that he'd need to get to nine figures.
3) J.D. Martinez
The Mets could absolutely use another bat. The team ranked 20th in runs scored and saw inconsistent seasons from just about everyone up and down the lineup. Adding a force like J.D. Martinez this offseason to DH would add some stability into a lineup that needs it.
It looked like the former Red Sox DH was on the decline before doing what so many players do with the Dodgers, bounce back. He slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs and 103 RBI in 113 games. He made his sixth all-star team and was a fixture in the middle of their order behind Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith.
Martinez reasserted himself as one of the best designated hitters in the game, but is only a DH and just turned 36 years old. These two factors mean he's likely to get a short-term deal and the AAV won't be astronomical due to his limitations.
Both Daniel Vogelbach and Mark Vientos showed flashes down the stretch for the Mets, but neither showed enough to be handed full-time DH duties. The spot is open for J.D. to take, and if the Mets don't land Shohei Ohtani, I wouldn't be shocked to see them pursue Martinez in free agency.
4) Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar Hernandez went from a guy who was traded for just Francisco Liriano to an all-star and consistently dangerous power bat. He's hit at least 22 home runs in each of the last five full seasons and even hit 16 in just 50 games during the shortened 2020 season. If he played in all 60 games for Toronto it's very possible he would've gotten to 20.
That kind of consistent power Hernandez provides would be a nice addition to this Mets lineup that outside of Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor really lacks consistent power. This past season for the Mariners he rebounded from a slow start and slashed .258/.305/.435 with 26 home runs and 93 RBI. His August surge helped Seattle get back in the postseason race before they ultimately fell short.
Hernandez will be 31 years old when he signs his contract and is a poor defender. A big reason the Blue Jays opted to trade him outside of his expiring contract status was his outfield defense being subpar. He did make strides in the positive direction this season in that area, but his track record in the outfield isn't great.
He should get a longer-term deal than a guy like Martinez given that he's five years younger, but Teoscar being nowhere near as good of a hitter should bump the AAV down a bit to the point where he wouldn't reach $100 million.
5) Matt Moore
The prize for relievers this offseason is Josh Hader who, like Edwin Diaz did last offseason, should get a nine-figure deal somewhere. Additionally, the chances of Hader signing in New York to be Diaz's set-up man are slim to none, even with it sounding incredibly lethal on paper.
While Hader is out of the question, there're several other quality relievers out there. One player that went under the radar last offseason was Matt Moore who proved that his breakout season in Texas was no fluke.
It looked like Moore's career was reaching its end after he had a 6.29 ERA in Philadelphia in the 2021 season, but a permanent move to the bullpen was all he'd need to get revive it. He had a 1.95 ERA in 2022 which helped him earn a one-year deal with the Angels, and he backed that up with a 2.56 ERA in 50 appearances this season splitting time with Los Angeles, the Guardians, and Marlins.
At 34 years old he certainly won't get anything near $100 million and would be a great piece to add to this bullpen for a year or two. Moore is a pitcher who can get both lefties and righties out and can also record more than three outs in an outing if there's a need for that. He'd be an awesome second lefty to pair with Brooks Raley.
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