5 MLB free agent starting pitchers the NY Mets should stay away from this offseason

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The New York Mets will be in the free agency market looking for multiple pitchers to fill various vacancies in their rotation. Among the options that will be available this winter are pitchers such as Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Clayton Kershaw, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, among others.

The Mets must be cautious when selecting who would fill the vacancies they have so as not to repeat scenarios like the signings of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. In this sense, there are five options in the market that the team should stay away from because they may imply a risk for the organization moving forward.

The Mets need to stay away from a top-market pitcher this winter

The free agency market for starting pitchers brings with it various options, but one name stands out because of his track record. Soon-to-be Hall of Famer, Clayton Kershaw, would be a free agent this winter at 36.

Kershaw has been a phenomenal pitcher in his major league career. The Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander has a career ERA below 2.50 and has amassed three Cy Young Awards, one MVP Award, ten All-Star Game selections, and a Gold Glove.

Despite being an efficient and dominant pitcher during his MLB tenure, Kershaw's age and injury history make him a risky candidate for any team. Additionally, after what was evidenced by Scherzer and Verlander, the Mets should be more cautious when selecting older pitchers to lead their team's rotation.

Likewise, Kershaw will command a short-term contract with an AAV equal to or greater than $20 million. For a similar annual fee, the Mets could sign a pitcher like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has the stuff to be an MLB ace and enough youth to contribute with less risk of injury.

The Mets should be careful with an NL Cy Young candidate

One of the biggest surprises this season has been the San Diego Padres left-hander, Blake Snell. The 2018 American League Cy Young Award winner is putting up one of the best seasons of his career this 2023, making him a top candidate for the National League Cy Young Award.

Snell is leading the league in ERA and is the pitcher with the fewest hitting contacts in the entire MLB. This is coupled with a season where his K/9 sits around 11.6, and he is aiming to surpass 30 starts for the first time since 2018.

At just 30 years old, Snell is up to get a lucrative contract after what has been evident this season. His bWAR positions him as the best pitcher in the National League, giving him an additional boost to his Cy Young Award candidacy.

However, Snell is a dangerous candidate given the contract he will demand versus the results that can be obtained. The Padres left-hander has been pitching with help from the team's defense, which shows through an FIP of around 3.70 and xERA hovering around 4.00.

Additionally, in the past few seasons, Snell hasn't been the pitcher we see this season. For a starter in his late 30s, with Snell's track record and the contract he'll demand, the Mets should stay out of the fight for his services.

Mets need to stay away from this former New York Yankee player

Since his departure from New York City, Sonny Gray has been an efficient and consistent pitcher throughout his career. Leaving the Yankees out of the equation, Gray has managed to put up good numbers in his stints with the Oakland A's, Cincinnati Reds, and Minnesota Twins.

Especially in the last two seasons, Gray has been a top pitcher in the league. This 2023, his production guaranteed him an All-Star Game selection.

His results have been more than impressive with an ERA below 3.00, an ERA+ above 150, and a FIP below his ERA level ensuring there isn't much of a helping factor from defense or luck in Gray's case.

Sonny Gray could be a top-rotation starter in any baseball rotation. However, one factor cannot fail to be considered in the case of the Mets to fight for their services in free agency.

Baseball has many qualitative and subjective factors that we sometimes don't understand but are real. Factors such as stadiums, clubhouses, or cities negatively influence certain players throughout their careers.

In the case of Gray, his time in New York does not stop bringing up that he is possibly not made for the city. If we look at his career, Gray has been a good pitcher in quiet cities, where there isn't as much media pressure as there is in New York City.

The Mets could skip this part and seek the services of a pitcher of Gray's level. But to ignore his time with the Yankees would be to not understand that in baseball not everything is based on numbers to study the performance of a player.

The Mets need mid-rotation starters but must take into account the recent performance of this veteran pitcher

The Mets won't just be looking for a top-rotation arm to pair with Kodai Senga at the top of the team's rotation. Part of the problem in recent years with the Mets' starting pitching has been the lack of efficient mid-to-low starters who can help the team.

Outside of Jose Quintana, the Mets are uncertain about which pitchers might end up in the rotation even if they sign a top pitcher like Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Into this equation enters James Paxton, who has had a good comeback this season with the Boston Red Sox.

Paxton has been pitching well considering that he lost the entire 2022 season and that in the previous two years, he posted pretty bad numbers. However, this season he has managed to stay healthy, limiting the damage of his opponents and posting a quite reasonable ERA considering the stadium where he mostly pitches.

Unfortunately, the Mets should look the other way and not seek to negotiate with Paxton. His injury-prone profile makes him one of the riskier options in free agency. The Mets can think options like Luis Severino or Michal Lorenzen would be a safer bet to compete for a mid-rotation spot in the Mets.

The Mets and all their fans are clear that age matters in a starting pitcher

Scherzer and Verlander show that betting on high ceilings in older pitchers is a dangerous gamble. After the passage of both aces for the Mets team, the front office will be more careful when choosing relatively old pitchers to compete in New York City.

Hyun Jin Ryu must enter this group. Ryu has been a good pitcher in MLB throughout his ten years in the league, with an ERA around 3.25 and a winning percentage above .600.

Following his return in 2023, Ryu has been throwing good baseball, limiting contact from his opponents to a small sample of innings pitched. On the other hand, his delivery and command have been inconsistent causing an increase in his walks.

The real reason to rule out Ryu as a candidate for the Mets' rotation is not due to a performance issue. In fact, when healthy, Ryu has proven to be a pitcher with good command and command of the mound putting up consistently good numbers season after season.

However, Ryu would enter this free agency at 37 years old. A pitcher of that age, and with a history of injuries is not a necessary target for a team that, although it will remain competitive in 2024, has its sights on the future to achieve a championship roster.

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