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3 free agent pitchers the Mets should avoid if they miss on Yoshinobu Yamamoto
The Mets will need to sign starting pitchers if they miss out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but should not pursue these three.
All eyes are on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and that's been the case really ever since Shohei Ohtani signed. Everyone assumed that Ohtani signing would break the seal of the offseason and get other free agents signed, but things have been as quiet as ever in recent weeks.
The New York Mets are one of the teams waiting on Yoshinobu Yamamoto's decision. They seem to be right in the thick of the mix as a team Yamamoto could easily wind up with. The fit makes a lot of sense for a Mets team in dire need of starting pitching help, and Yamamoto's age fits the Mets timeline quite well.
If the Mets miss out on Yamamoto, chances are they're going to be in on other starting pitching help. Right now, the only locks in the rotation are Kodai Senga, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana. They're going to need at least one more starting pitcher to be somewhat competitive in 2024. Here are three they should not be pursuing.
1) Blake Snell
Blake Snell hasn't made any sense as a Mets target, and missing out on Yamamoto wouldn't change that. It might be a bit crazy to say that the Mets absolutely should not be pursuing the reigning Cy Young winner, but that's absolutely the case with Snell.
The most obvious reason why the Snell fit doesn't make any sense is he has the qualifying offer attached to him. For the Mets to sign him, they'd have to forfeit a pair of draft picks and international money which the Mets have shown a hesitancy to do under Steve Cohen. Their focus right now is to build the team up without only relying on free agency, and forfeiting picks and international money would be the exact opposite of that.
While the qualifying offer is the main reason the Mets should not and likely will not pursue Snell, it's not an end-all-be-all for all free agents. For example, the Mets would've happily signed Shohei Ohtani who also had the qualifying offer attached to him if he was interested in coming to New York.
Snell doesn't make much sense as a fit for the Mets for other reasons as well. First, his durability or lack thereof can be a concern. The southpaw has made 30+ starts just twice in his eight year career and has made 25+ starts only three times. He's topped the 130 innings mark just twice as well.
Additionally, Snell has been rather inconsistent when he is on the field. Sure, he's won the two Cy Youngs, but in the four seasons in between his Cy Young victories he has a 3.85 ERA averaging 21 starts per season. Not bad, obviously, but also not ace-like. Snell is supremely talented, but his inconsistency, lack of durability, and the cost it'll take to get him makes him extremely unappealing.
2) James Paxton
When healthy, James Paxton is a really solid mid-rotation arm. From 2014-2019, he had a 3.57 ERA averaging 21 starts per season. The problem with Paxton and the reason the Mets should not sign him is that he's on the IL more often than he's actually on the field.
This past season was Paxton's healthiest since 2019, as he made 19 starts with the Red Sox, posting a 4.50 ERA in 96 innings of work. He had combined to make just six total starts from 2020-2022, including none in 2022. He got off to an excellent start to his season, putting up a 2.73 ERA in his first 10 starts, but really faltered to the finish line before right knee inflammation ended his season prematurely in early September.
The one big move the Mets have made this offseason was bringing in Luis Severino on a one-year deal. This Mets are taking a big risk on Severino hoping he can be somewhat healthy and productive. Making the exact same bet with Paxton and having 40% of the rotation made up of giant question marks just won't end well.
The 35-year-old makes for an intriguing signing for many teams, but with the oft-injured Severino already here and the Mets having questionable depth when it comes to starting pitchers, they should steer clear of another giant risk.
3) Michael Lorenzen
The Tigers took a chance on Michael Lorenzen last offseason, signing him to a one-year deal to pitch out of their rotation and it wound up paying off beautifully. The longtime reliever was an all-star for the first time in his career, and pitched well enough for the Tigers to sell high on him at the trade deadline.
A midseason trade to the Phillies allowed Lorenzen to start games for a contender in the middle of a playoff race. He pitched wonderfully for the Phillies in his first two starts before things all fell apart down the stretch. Five poor starts in a row forced a move to the bullpen for much of September, and Lorenzen was nothing more than a mop-up reliever in the postseason.
It was an up-and-down year for the 31-year-old. Setting career highs in starts and innings pitched is obviously a good thing, and Lorenzen being an all-star for the first time was cool, but when looking deeper, his season was pretty underwhelming. His base numbers were decent, but the underlying metrics were not as pleased with his performance. There's a whole lot of blue all over his baseball savant page.
He might've had a 4.18 ERA overall, but had a 4.55 xERA, a 4.46 FIP, and a 4.68 xFIP. He looked like a solid mid-rotation starter for much of the year, but really profiled as a fifth starter who isn't much better than the likes of David Peterson and Tylor Megill if at all.
He's never made more than 25 starts in a season and this was just his second time ever going past the 100-inning mark. Considering how poorly he finished, there's a good chance he simply ran out of gas down the stretch. The Mets signing him to what MLB Trade Rumors predicts would be a multi-year commitment when he has never pitched through a full season as a successful starter would not be wise.
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