Grading the free agent starting pitcher additions made this winter

The New York Mets had potentially four starting pitchers headed into free agency this winter. They picked up the option on Carlos Carrasco, leaving them with only him and Max Scherzer when free agency began.

Early November was all about whether or not Jacob deGrom would stick around. He was one of the big movers and shakers in free agency this offseason. He even signed before the Winter Meetings began. It just wasn’t with the Mets.

The team did successfully find three free agent starters to replace deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker. Now that the free agent pool of starting pitchers has mostly dried up, we can more accurately grade the players the Mets did add. Do they barely pass or do they make an appearance on the honor roll?

1) NY Mets grade for signing Justin Verlander: A

It was the obvious move for the Mets to make. A short-term deal with Justin Verlander at a high AAV would give them the most similar production to what they needed from deGrom. Tacking on the third year with an option made this a better choice although the main purpose of signing Verlander is to get the job done in 2023.

Verlander is coming off of a Cy Young campaign with the Houston Astros. He might not be quite as excellent for the Mets this year. That’s fine. He doesn’t need to have a sub-2.00 ERA in order to be a success. He needs to help get them through the year and, more importantly, show up in the postseason.

The Mets did have to give him the biggest AAV of any free agent this offseason, but I’d say it was a better option than going long-term with Carlos Rodon. Something about his track record seems like he’ll miss a full season at some point during the deal he got with the New York Yankees.

Verlander is only visiting the Mets briefly. He’s exactly what they need with Scherzer around, too.

3) NY Mets grade for signing Kodai Senga: B

A big unknown for the Mets is how Kodai Senga will perform with the team in 2023 and beyond. His deal, with an AAV of $15 million, puts him slightly above Quintana and those players mentioned previously. It’s always a risk to sign an international player. Some end up as Shohei Ohtani. Others are Kaz Matsui.

It was a necessary move for the Mets to make and definitely one to take a risk on. Compared to the $21 million AAV Chris Bassitt got from the Toronto Blue Jays and $18 million Taijuan Walker received from the Philadelphia Phillies, the Senga deal feels lighter.

Senga’s deal does include potential opt outs in each of the final two years as long as he reaches 400 innings from 2023-2025. As with any contract, there is more fine print along the way, too. The most important thing to look at is whether or not he is the guy for the Mets.

At age 30, Senga is expected to be in the prime of his career. The transition from pitching in Japan to North America may have some bumpy roads. Plenty of pitchers have come over with great success at an older age. We can’t use how other people have performed to know for sure what Senga will do. He’s his own man.

Nevertheless, this felt like a good move. It’s higher priced than and longer than some of the other free agent signings out there. The ceiling is great for Senga. The Mets didn’t sign him to a deal where they hope he gives them his best effort in the first or second year. This was a move for extended success.