5 recent Mets free agent signings that turned out better than expected

The New York Mets have signed a plethora of free agents this offseason. While there have been no headliner additions to the roster like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in the past few off-seasons, the Mets' depth has improved since David Stearns became team president last October. When Stearns took over, the Mets had question marks all over the diamond and across the pitching staff. Furthermore, the coaching staff and front office experienced an overturn with Buck Showalter parting ways and Billy Eppler under investigation for his usage of the injured list. Suffice it to say, the Mets have a different look heading into spring training.

With the organization in a state of transition from the veteran to the younger talent, the Mets have targeted one-year contracts to fill in as placeholders. Many of these players have little to no expectations given their recent track records, such as Shintaro Fujinami and Michael Tonkin. However, the Mets will need some of these players to step up their performances this season if they intend to be competitive. In reviewing the past few off-seasons, the free agent signings have been very mixed between solid and disappointing performances. On the other hand, a few made a more significant impact than originally anticipated. Of those players, who surprised us the most?

1. Aaron Loup

The Mets had many inconsistencies through the Sandy Alderson and Brodie Van Wagenen eras. In 2017, the Mets hit a lot of home runs but lost all of their starting pitchers but Jacob deGrom to injury. In 2018, the pitching staff stayed healthy, but the offense was anemic in May and June. In 2019, the Mets' starters pitched well, and the offense received great contributions from the younger core but won just 86 games. Through all of these inconsistencies, the one constant was always the lackluster performance from the bullpen, particularly from the late-inning relievers.

When Steve Cohen took over in 2021, both Jared Porter and Zack Scott recognized the bullpen needed to be revamped from the 2020 season. Instead of taking a risk in signing another Jeurys Familia type of 3-year contract, the Mets took the short route of signing many short-term deals. One of which was veteran left-hander Aaron Loup, who had a typical every-other-year track record. In acquiring Loup, the Mets expected him to just be a left-handed compliment to Trevor May in the late innings of a ballgame.

Little did Scott know Loup would turn out to be his best decision as general manager. He exceeded any expectation of his 1-year $4 million contract and had the best relief season in recent memory. Across 56.2 innings, Loup pitched to a 0.95 ERA with just 16 walks and 57 strikeouts. While he was snubbed as an All-Star in July, Loup was the Mets' best player aside from deGrom and earned a multi-year contract from the Los Angeles Angels in 2022. While the Mets rarely have positive surprises from journeymen relief pitchers, Loup defied historical trends and put together a career season at age 33.

3. Adam Ottavino

As with every offseason, the Mets' bullpen was in flux following the 2021 season. Familia and Loup were free agents, meaning the threesome of Diaz, May, and Seth Lugo were the only locks for the 2022 season. Having already been burnt with multi-year commitments to relief pitchers, Eppler committed to a different approach. In taking the Scott and Stearns model of building a bullpen, Eppler signed and traded for relief pitchers coming off of bad seasons. While on the surface fans may ask, "Why sign a player who performed horribly in 2021?" The formula behind this ideology is to buy low on relief pitchers and reap the rewards if they have a bounce-back season.

The free agent pool every offseason is flooded with relief pitchers whose contracts either expired or were non-tendered by their prior organization. The likelihood to 'hit a homerun' on a one-year contract is not favorable, but once in a while, the Mets hit one 400 feet. Eppler jumped into this pool and signed Brooklyn native Adam Ottavino to a contract worth 1-year $4 million. Ottavino was coming off a mediocre season with the Boston Red Sox, having pitched to a 4.21 ERA in 62 innings. At age 36, the Mets were signing Ottavino not out of desperation, but out of hope he could rediscover the fastball that made him effective in 2018-19.

Rarely have we uttered these words, but Eppler hit a grand slam with this decision. Ottavino is expected to be the next 2021 version of Familia: a late-inning relief pitcher who often struggles with control and gives the fans agita. However, Ottavino had the lowest walk rate of his career at 2.2 BB/9 which contributed to his dominant 2.06 ERA across 65.2 innings pitched. While the track record of Ottavino is not as erratic as Loup, it was still a shock that the 36-year-old had the best all-around season of his career when expectations were at their lowest.

4. Kodai Senga

Following the aftermath of the 2022 Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres, the Mets had a multitude of high-profile free agents they would need to either re-sign or replace. Among those free agents included four starting pitchers in deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker. With the unlikelihood of resigning all four pitchers given their respective price tags, Eppler would have to get creative in finding their replacements. After exercising the 2023 club option on Carrasco, the Mets turned to the free-agent market to find help.

One of the most intriguing names on the market was Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga. Having never pitched in the United States before, very few fans, let alone media outlets, knew much about the 30-year-old. Playing for the Nippon Professional Baseball League in Japan, Senga pitched to a 1.94 ERA across 144 innings pitched. He struck out 156 batters while walking just 27. While many evaluators compare Japanese baseball to "Quadruple-A" in America, these statistics are beyond just a great season in AAA.

In reality, none of us know what to expect when a baseball player makes their major league debut. The variance for international players is much higher given their need to adapt in a new country with a different culture and language barriers However, Senga's ghost fork nearly danced him to becoming the National League Rookie of the Year in 2023 and earned him the Cy-Young Award votes. His 2.98 ERA across 166.1 innings pitched with 202 strikeouts could not have been predicted by anyone, including Eppler himself. For Mets fans, we can sigh a breath of fresh air as Senga's 5-year $75 million contract seems like a steal in 2024.

5. Justin Wilson

The Mets began their 2018-19 offseason by focusing on the bullpen. Van Wagenen's blueprint was to start at the back end by acquiring Diaz in early December. In making this trade with the Seattle Mariners, the Mets lost Anthony Swarzak from the 2018 season, if nothing else but a bounce-back candidate for the 2019 season. This decision left only Gsellman and Lugo as late-inning options to bridge between the starting pitcher and the closer.

At the Winter Meetings, the Mets identified their primary set-up man in signing Familia to a 3-year contract worth $30 million. Though the Mets now had a few late-inning relievers, they still needed at least one left-handed option to pair with Familia and Lugo. Without many additional resources due to Wilpon's budget constraints, Van Wagenen signed veteran left-hander Justin Wilson to a contract worth 2-years and $10 million.

Wilson came to the Mets with a solid track record of success across seven major league seasons. He had a 3.33 ERA in 370.2 innings pitched, spending time in four different organizations. Wilson also brought closing experience, saving 13 games in 15 attempts for the Detroit Tigers in 2017. Even with these statistics, nobody could have foreseen Wilson becoming an integral piece of the Mets' bullpen. By the second half of the season, Wilson became the primary set-up man to Lugo, having a 2.54 ERA in 39 innings pitched. While most of Van Wagenen's free agent signings turned out to be disastrous contracts, the signing of Wilson ended up saving the Mets' bullpen in the 2019 season.