Mets free agent relief pitchers: 3 we should buy, 2 we should sell on having a good year

Before we know it, the New York Mets will be playing actual games that don’t count much in the standings but can offer a glimpse into the immediate future. Spring training is heaven on earth. The sound of fastballs hitting catcher’s mitts is like the pearly gates opening up. The crack of a home run off a bat is a welcoming horn blown by the angels. The romance of baseball is nearing and the heart palpitations should have us all feeling a little more in love with this sport.

In less than a week, the Mets seemed to completely change the narrative around the bullpen. The sciatic pain we felt for much of the winter wasn’t due to a slipped disc but rather the haunting future of what these relievers would deliver.

Not so much anymore. While the bullpen is imperfect, there are three pitchers we should buy into having a good year. Two others, on the other hand, look destined for something worse.

Buy into the Jake Diekman signing

Jake Diekman wasn’t thought of as a top target for the Mets to fill their bullpen. At 37 and coming off of a whacky season, he kind of flew under the radar as a consideration. Like so many relievers, his career has included some major shifts in performance from the excellent to much less so.

Last year’s totals included a 3.34 ERA in 56.2 innings of work. The big bonus was how well he pitched for the Tampa Bay Rays after a horrendous stint with the Chicago White Sox to begin the year. The Rays worked their magic on him and ended up with a 2.18 ERA performance in 45.1 innings of work. 

Was this all Tampa Bay sorcery or has Diekman tapped into a skillset from within that just needed unlocking? 

About to enter his 13th MLB season, the highs and lows from a long and well-traveled career don’t offer much insight into what we can expect. Go with your gut. Buy into Diekman on a one-year deal with a vesting option for 2025 to be a productive member of the bullpen. Assisted by fellow lefty Brooks Raley who made the leap from the Rays to the Mets last year and continued his success, we should prepare for a lesser yet still reliable version of Diekman in Queens this coming year.

Buy into the Shintaro Fujinami signing

Another guy who finished last year with the Orioles was Shintaro Fujinami. He found more success than Lopez did but not noticeable enough where he had teams fighting to sign him this offseason. Wrecked with the Oakland Athletics where he began as a starter, his 8.57 ERA turned into a 4.85 ERA performance when he joined the Orioles for his final 30 games.

A 4.61 FIP versus 7.18 ERA on the season indicates some bad luck for Fujinami. Somewhat self-fulfilling because he did sign with the Athletics after all, he’s someone analytics departments can spin as a favorable addition to the Mets bullpen. Something a little more average with an ERA in the 4.00-4.50 range would be more than acceptable. What makes Fujinami most appealing is he has minor league options. While this does make him a bit expensive for a minor league player if he is sent down (he probably will be for a fresh arm at some point), it comes across as a savvy move for the Mets.

I’ll bite. Fujinami won’t be as unlucky with the Mets as he was with the A’s and O’s. He won’t be excellent in New York, but he will have his moments. Capable of giving the Mets more than a frame at a time, proper usage should be a factor in determining just how good or bad of an addition he becomes.

Sell the Michael Tonkin signing

In fairness, at only $1 million for a year, the expectations for Michael Tonkin aren’t exceedingly high. We can like it (which I do) and still sell this as being anything more than an improvement to what they already had.

Think of the Tonkin deal as a more expensive minor league signing and not even much more than what a minor leaguer would make at league minimum. Tonkin made his return to MLB last season. His time away dating back to 2017 with the Minnesota Twins included two stints with the Long Island Ducks and a tour in Mexico. The Atlanta Braves added him in 2022 and for the 2023 season he became a multi-inning reliever out of their bullpen.

The numbers last year included a 4.28 ERA in 45 appearances spanning 80 innings. He walked batters at a rate of 2.6 per 9 and fell shy of a strikeout per inning at 8.4 per 9. A solid 1.08 WHIP and some decent numbers in terms of hard-hit percentage at 40%, Tonkin could turn into one of the sneakier moves of the offseason by Stearns.

He can, just as easily, get real cold again. At 34, he’s no kid. Because of how tight the Mets roster is in terms of who they can send down, there could come a point where Tonkin ends up as a roster casualty if his numbers aren’t strong enough.

We just haven’t seen enough of Tonkin at the major league level to fully know what to expect. The ceiling is averageness.

Buy into the Adam Ottavino signing

Adam Ottavino makes Michael Tonkin look like someone who should be on the playground eating worms. Now 38, the man isn’t ready to quit baseball yet nor can he seem to escape the clutches of Steve Cohen. Re-signed for the second straight offseason, Ottavino is back in the bullpen and hopefully this time he doesn’t have to elevate his role to closer. He’s there to set up Edwin Diaz and that’s what made him so effective in 2022.

The Mets did get punished with a lesser version of Ottavino last season following a brilliant first season. Still, with an ERA at 3.21, how much can anyone really complain?

The stand out bad number from Ottavino is the 7 losses out of the bullpen. Interestingly, three of those losses came in September including back-to-back ones in the latter part of the month. Those three came while pitching in the ninth.

His walk total going from 2.2 per 9 up to 4.2 per 9 last year was one of the main reasons why he got himself into so much trouble. Ottavino will have to improve here as well as find a few more strikeouts. His 9 per 9 was his lowest in a decade.

Ottavino will give the Mets enough quality appearances for the price he returned on. At $4.5 million, we’ll be happy to have him over some guys making double and delivering the same exact results.