7 Mets free agent predictions

We are in the middle of the hot stove of the offseason, and the New York Mets are going to have a busy winter. The team has many areas of work, with pitching, starting, and relief being part of the greatest needs on the Mets roster for 2024.

David Stearns must focus the resources of Steve Cohen and his farm system to achieve, most efficiently and creatively, making the Mets a competitive team without having to sacrifice top prospects or large volumes of economic resources. I understand Stearns' modus operandi from his time with the Milwaukee Brewers. These would be the Mets President of Baseball Operations' free agent signing predictions this offseason.

The big target among starting pitchers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, would sign with the Mets

The signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto would be a big move for Stearns in his first year with the Mets and possibly the only one of its kind in this free agency. The Mets' plan has been clear since last season's trade deadline fire sale, where it was evident that the Mets would be spending more conservatively and prioritizing their sustainability in prospects moving forward.

However, unlike most options in free agency this offseason, Yamamoto is the one that makes the most sense for the Mets. He covers the immediate need that the team has in the rotation for 2024, and due to his young age, he would be a prime player for the coming years when the team intends to compete with its future stars.

The winner of three Sawamura Awards, Japan's equivalent of the Cy Young Award, and three-time Triple Crown winner is a high-potential pitcher with great stuff and command, who could adapt and dominate in MLB as soon as 2024. The bidding for Yamamoto will be aggressive, and the teams will have to offer a lot of money and years of contract to convince them to sign this pitcher, who also comes with a posting fee that increases his cost much more.

Either way, the Mets will end up winning the bid for Yamamoto, converting the Mets' rotation into a duo of efficient Japanese pitchers alongside Kodai Senga. Yamamoto will establish himself as a dominant figure in MLB starting this season and the ace of the New York Mets.

The Mets will make a bet on a low-cost high-reward starting pitcher

The Mets don't have to have a rotation full of aces to compete in 2024. There are even options with potential that can complement a rotation led by Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Kodai Senga, and be more efficient than Jose Quintana.

Stearns will be smart in this free agency by identifying potential productive assets that do not excessively sacrifice the team's finances. In this sense, the Mets are going to sign an experienced pitcher in New York with high potential, at a low cost and time for his potential.

Luis Severino would be a perfect fit for the Mets rotation. Severino has plenty of experience playing in the city and has been effective in his career, with only one year of poor performance, such as 2023.

Severino may end up being a bargain in this free agency, where many project him accepting a one-year contract to re-establish his market value for just over $10 million. This pitcher would be a perfect asset for the Mets as they look to solidify their rotation.

Severino continues to show a good fastball, with a speed of 96 mph, which indicates that his stuff is still good, and what has affected his results could be a location issue. With the guidance from Jeremy Hefner, Severino will be a good pitcher for the Mets in 2024.

The Mets are going to complete their rotation with a veteran pitcher

Fans always expect their teams to go after the best players in free agency. However, it is fair to think that Mets fans have understood that the big names are not always the best fit for their team or its plans.

Therefore, in a rotation where the Mets would have Yamamoto, Senga, Severino, and Quintana, the need for a highly renowned player is not so vital. However, one aspect that the Mets do need is a veteran, with experience and health to help manage the team's innings, something that affected the rotation in 2023.

A pitcher who fits that description is Kyle Gibson. Gibson signed a $10 million contract with the Orioles last offseason and managed to have a good season despite his age.

Gibson ended up pitching 192 innings in 2023, where he posted a 4.73 ERA and 2.6 WAR. One aspect that stands out about this pitcher is that he has better achieved his command by considerably limiting his walks and that he induces a large number of hits by ground ball.

A pitcher of Gibson's experience with the ability to give the Mets between 175-200 innings, for the value of a contract similar to the one he signed last season, would be a good deal for the team. The Mets will get a good return from Gibson as the fifth starter in their rotation.

The Mets will sign a power hitter at the DH position

The Mets have lacked an innate power figure at the designated hitter position to balance the lineup alongside Pete Alonso. Among several experiments, we saw how recent non-tender player Daniel Vogelbach was unable to produce at the expected level.

The Mets need real power in their lineup, especially if he can be a left-handed hitter. The main reason why the Mets will sign Joc Pederson in free agency this winter.

Pederson had a subpar season that did not meet the expectations of his contract after accepting the Giants' qualifying offer for almost $20 million. Either way, this is a positive factor in the case of the Mets since this drop in this player's offensive performance will lower his cost.

For many, Pederson would not be an attractive target, but if we look closely at his numbers and profile as a hitter, we will find a productive player with a touch of bad luck. Pederson is a natural power hitter, and his numbers say so. His exit velocity averaged 92 mph in 2023, ranking within the top 10% of the league, and his hard-hit contact percentage was 52.2%, top 4%.

Another relevant aspect of Pederson's profile is that his plate discipline improved considerably, dropping more than four percentage points in his strikeout rate and increasing his walk percentage from 9.7 to 13.4 percent. Additionally, his advanced metrics show that Pederson was unlucky and showed considerable differentials in his batting average and slugging versus those expected by more than 30 points.

The Mets are going to sign Pederson to a short contract, and it will be one of the team's best decisions this winter. This left-handed power hitter will be a great balance in the lineup between right-handers Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez, injecting a core of power into the middle of the lineup.

The Mets are going to sign a starter/reliever hybrid this offseason

A fundamental aspect for the Mets is to have figures who provide a considerable number of innings in the bullpen. Unlike high-end relievers with the ability to make outs in the most pressing moments of the game, during the course of the season having pitchers with the ability to eat a large number of innings efficiently becomes necessary.

For this reason, the Mets will sign Nick Martinez this winter. Martinez is a starting pitcher turned reliever who has the ability to function as a long and short reliever, opener, or spot starter.

Martinez is not a pitcher with enough ability to retire via strikeouts, but he has a good arsenal of five pitches that make him an effective pitcher. Their most recent success is due to the change in his pitch distribution, making his change-up his main pitch, which batters hit for an average of .158 and generated a whiff% of 46.5, almost elite.

The change in the way he uses his pitches allowed Martinez to lower the opponents' ability to generate power, and this 2023, he managed to induce a low hard-hit contact rate of 29.9%, top 5% in the league. Likewise, a large part of his success is due to the ability of this pitcher to induce hits through the ground ball, achieving that more than 54% of the hits allowed were through the ground.

The Mets will inject depth into their reliever staff with the signing of Nick Martinez. This will help the bullpen and the rotation, giving the new manager a figure capable of working multiple innings efficiently.

The Mets will inject more depth into their bullpen with the signing of Keynan Middleton

For most, Keynan Middleton is an unknown pitcher. However, in a reserved manner, Middleton was an effective pitcher throughout the season with the Chicago White Sox and in his short stay with the New York Yankees.

In 50 innings pitched this season, Middleton managed to retire 64 batters via strikeout with an ERA of 3.38. The former Yankee managed to induce weak contact this season, allowing a hard-hit contact rate of 31.1% with an exit velocity of just 85.3 mph, both among the top in the league.

Middleton has an arsenal of three pitches, with a balanced distribution between them. Middleton's change-up stands out among the three as it resulted in batters hitting at an average of just .208.

The combination of pitches, such as the change-up and the slider with a fastball that averages 95.5 mph, makes this pitcher generate enough swing and miss to retire batters by striking out. Likewise, their pitches generate a spin rate that manages to throw opponents off balance, and when they manage to make contact, They do so by hitting ground balls more than 56% of the time, which is a positive factor.

The Mets will sign Keynan Middleton as a middle reliever, giving the team a more reliable option than they have had in the recent past. The low cost and effectiveness of this pitcher will make this signing one of the team's smartest this winter.