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Mets free agent contracts: 1 bargain, 1 overpay, and 1 that'll be just right
How will we feel about these Mets free agent deals by the end of 2024?
Everything in the house owned by the bears in Goldilocks was one extreme or just right. This tends to be the outcome for most events in life. It’s either too hot, too cold, or right where you want it. Free agents signed by the New York Mets this offseason will be no different.
By the end of 2023, which deal will look most like a bargain, which will look like an overpay, and which one will Goldilocks rave about feeling just right?
The Joey Wendle contract will look like a bargain
It’s easy to be a bargain when you’re getting paid $2 million in Major League Baseball. It’s what the Mets signed infielder Joey Wendle for. Although he’ll be in a limited role, outpacing the contract is very possible given the circumstances of the team. Wendle was originally signed to replace Luis Guillorme. However, with the injury to Ronny Mauricio, he may be third base insurance on a far more regular basis.
The defensive abilities of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos are in question. Not so much with Wendle. He’s here for his glove. Anything extra the Mets get from his bat is a huge bonus.
Wendle isn’t too far removed from being a competent major league bat. He hit .300/.354/.435 as a rookie for the 2018 Tampa Bay Rays. In 2021, his season ended with a .265/.319/.422 slash line in addition to a selection to that year’s American League All-Star team.
Wendle hit a career-worst .212/.248/.306 last year with the Miami Marlins which explains the affordable contract. A performance closer to his career slash line of .263/.312/.386 while saving a bunch of runs late in games can easily make him the best bargain the Mets added this offseason.
The Harrison Bader contract will be an overpay
Harrison Bader is a fun player. Fun teams don’t always equal success. At $10.5 million, the Mets ignored a career where staying on the field has been his bigger deterrent. Bader has never had more than 427 plate appearances in a single season. As gifted of a defensive player as he is, we should have some doubts about this decision.
It’s certainly understandable why the Mets did what they did. Bader in center field and Brandon Nimmo in left field improves the outfield defense immensely. Offensively, the Mets are lacking. Bader is a career .243/.310/.396 hitter which if you’ve been paying attention is worse in two of the three numbers than Wendle. Even the slugging percentage is only ten points higher.
How much is a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder worth? Apparently, $10.5 million. This contract will look like an overpay when the season is through. Guys like him don’t tend to even be worth much at the trade deadline either.
Bader is probably best used as a defensive replacement and everyday player versus left-handed pitchers. He can no doubt handle himself versus southpaws. The problem is the Mets aren’t going to platoon him—the center field gig is mostly his. What’s more, there are far more right-handed pitchers in the game anyway so thoughts of this benefitting him at all are out the window.
If you enjoyed Juan Lagares, you’ll like Bader. He’s going to hit about the same as Wendle at five times the price.
The Luis Severino contract will be just right
The Luis Severino deal was puzzling early in the offseason. It felt like a lot of money to pay a guy who hasn’t been very healthy for several years. Coming off of a miserable 2023 campaign, handing him $13 million seemed extreme.
But that’s the market for pitchers at his level. Plenty of worse pitchers got paid around the same. Ex-teammate Frankie Montas who has been missing in action even more in the last two years received more guaranteed money from the Cincinnati Reds. If you’re thinking about a career change, mediocre free agent starting pitcher is one that can give you generational wealth.
The Mets will need to hope last year’s implosion by Severino is one giant hiccup in his career. In 2022 when he made 19 starts for the New York Yankees, he was actually really good. Which version of him shows up for the Mets?
Keeping him healthy will ultimately help decide his legacy in Queens. The two-time All-Star pitched only 18 innings from 2019-2021. A $13 million price tag is certainly extreme for the average person, but in MLB it fits closely to the 3.79 ERA he has posted in his career. Doing this, slightly better, or even a little worse will have us feeling as if his contract was like the baby bear’s bed, just right.
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