Dream Mets starting rotation for the 2024 season
Is this the best starting rotation in baseball?
The New York Mets had what felt like a dream rotation heading into 2023 Spring Training. They had signed Justin Verlander fresh off a Cy Young to replace the oft-injured Jacob deGrom. They signed Japanese phenom Kodai Senga to replace Chris Bassitt who imploded in the Mets' biggest games of the year. They also added Jose Quintana who was set to provide more stability than Taijuan Walker had offered in his up and down Mets tenure.
That trio was set to join a rotation that already had Max Scherzer one year after setting a career best in ERA, and Carlos Carrasco who felt like a luxury as a fifth starter. The Mets had the makings for one of, if not the best rotation in baseball with two future Hall of Famers, a right-hander with a ton of potential, and a back end that had accomplished more than any other back end in the league.
Things never got off the ground for the Mets rotation that dealt with injuries and underperforming players. Virtually everyone the Mets turned to with the exception of Senga either missed substantial time or failed to live up to the billing. Ironically, the Mets rotation looked its best in September when it was really just Senga, Quintana, and a bunch of depth pieces.
If the Mets intend on competing in 2024, they're going to have to revamp most of their rotation. If dreams did come true, this is how the Mets rotation would look in 2024.
Dream NY Mets starting rotation ace: Corbin Burnes
The Mets might not have landed Craig Counsell to manage, but David Stearns should still be doing everything he can to acquire his former player, Corbin Burnes, in a trade with the Brewers this offseason.
Whether Milwaukee actually makes him available following Brandon Woodruff's injury remains to be seen, but the Mets now have the prospect capital to make a deal that would be really hard for the Brewers to turn down.
Acquiring Burnes would not be cheap, but it'd give the Mets the undisputed ace that championship teams have. Burnes is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers not only in the National League, but all of baseball.
The fact that Burnes is entering his final year of team control can be a bit unsettling, but the Mets and Steve Cohen have the financial means to lock him in long term. If the Mets did ever find a way to make a deal for Burnes, they wouldn't be doing it with only one year in mind. He's durable, on the right side of 30, and elite. There's no reason not to do it.
Dream NY Mets starting rotation #2 starter: Kodai Senga
The 2023 season was obviously a disastrous one for the Mets, but Kodai Senga gave them just about everything they could have possibly hoped for.
After a bit of a rocky beginning to his MLB career, Senga wound up being one of the best pitchers in the National League this season, posting a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts and 166.1 innings of work. He struck out over 200 batters and consistently gave the Mets chances to win. New York might've finished under .500, but they went 17-12 in his starts. A big reason for this is he allowed more than four runs a grand total of one time all year.
Senga finished his year with seven straight starts allowing two runs or fewer and 16 straight starts allowing three runs or fewer. He was consistently dominant in the second half as he had a 2.58 ERA down the stretch. There's just nothing negative really to say about his season.
Senga won't win the Cy Young, but he's going to receive some votes and could even be a finalist. With that in mind, he'd be an ace in most rotations, just not this one if they can land Burnes.
Dream NY Mets starting rotation #3 starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
After watching Kodai Senga dominate for the Mets this season, Mets fans have been clamoring for the team to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, another Japanese right-hander. Yamamoto is younger and pitched even better than Senga in Japan, and is also going to make a lot more money.
Yamamoto was nothing short of dominant pitching for the Orix Buffaloes, posting a 1.21 ERA in 23 starts and 164 innings of work. He struck out 169 batters compared to just 28 walks. He topped that off by allowing a grand total of two home runs all year. Yamamoto finished his season with a masterpiece in an elimination game for Orix.
What's most intriguing about Yamamoto outside of his bonkers numbers is the fact that he's just 25 years old. The Mets can sign him to a seven or eight-year deal and have him pitch for them for most if not his entire prime while not having to worry about regression at the end. Most free agents enter at around the age of 30, so Yamamoto is a very rare exception.
The goal the Mets have right now is to build something sustainable. No more aging starting pitchers being relied on heavily like Scherzer and Verlander. Signing Yamamoto not only allows the Mets to have a legitimate shot at winning right now, but they'd be able to win in the future taking his age into account.
The only downside to having Senga and Yamamoto in the same rotation is the Mets would likely need six starters for much of the year. Fortunately, they do have solid depth guys that finished strong in Peterson, Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and Jose Butto.
Dream NY Mets starting rotation #4 starter: Sonny Gray
This is where the dream might point towards being a bit unrealistic, but I'd like to think with the Mets likely not making a massive splash offensively, they can afford it.
Sonny Gray has quietly been one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball since he debuted back in 2013 for Oakland. He's posted just three seaons with an ERA above 4.00, the same amount of seasons he's had sub-3.00 ERA's.
One of those seasons came in 2023 when Gray helped lead Minnesota to a division title. The right-hander posted a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts and 184 innings pitched. There's a very good chance he finishes as the AL Cy Young runner-up behind Gerrit Cole.
There are a couple of potential negatives that would come with signing Gray. First, he has the qualifying offer attached. If the Mets were to sign him, they'd have to forfeit a draft pick. Additionally, there are some concerns about his ability to pitch in New York. Gray certainly wasn't at his best with the Yankees, but there are additional factors that might explain why. Considering the fact that Gray has a 3.26 postseason ERA in six starts, I wouldn't worry too much about that.
What makes Gray an even more intriguing option is his projected price tag. Jon Heyman of the NY Post and two experts predicted he'd land a three-year deal worth between $65 and $72 million. It's not nothing, but Taijuan Walker signed a deal that gave him four years and $72 million last offseason. Obviously, age is a factor here and Gray is 34, but that still feels very team-friendly.
Dream NY Mets starting rotation #5 starter: Jose Quintana
Jose Quintana as a fifth starter would be the ultimate dream come true. Is it realistic? Probably not. But even Quintana as a fourth starter would be a luxury if he threw the ball close to as well as he did for the Mets when healthy.
Quintana's injury absolutely played a role in the team starting the season the way they did. They had envisioned him as a consistent mid-rotation arm that could eat valuable innings, but Quintana didn't make his Mets debut until July 20. The Mets were virtually out of it by that time.
When Quintana did pitch, he was spectacular. He pitched under constant pressure with the Mets offense rarely giving him support, but he still had a 3.57 ERA in 13 starts and 75.2 innings pitched. The Mets could've really used that when they were starting Carlos Carrasco most of the year.
The southpaw allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 13 starts and allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of them. Quintana also completed at least six innings of work ten times in those starts. He was a quality start machine. Pretty small sample, sure, but Quintana throughout his career has been a reliable innings eater. He's a pitcher the Mets look forward to hopefully staying healthy and productive in the 2024 season.