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4 keys to winning the crucial Mets-Braves series in Atlanta
It's simple. Play like how you've played for 3 1/2 months and the team will be fine.
The key here is simple for the New York Mets. Win the upcoming series against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park starting on Tuesday, and they are in the playoffs after a riveting season full of twists and turns.
The Mets enter this series with a two game lead over the Braves for a Wild Card berth and are tied in the season series with five wins on each side (tiebreakers are determined by head-to-head) at the end of the season.
But given that Atlanta has been a house of horrors for the Mets in recent years in big games (think 1998, 1999, and 2022), there are still that fear amongst some fans that the entire season could be washed away in the Deep South over the next three days.
1. The Mets starting pitching must match that of the Braves.
Both teams have had starting pitching injuries to deal with this season, yet all three matchups this week are pretty spicy. Tuesday's game will see Luis Severino (11-6, 3.79 ERA) take on Spencer Schwellenbach (7-7, 3.61 ERA). On Wedneseday, southpaws David Peterson (9-3, 3.08 ERA) and Chris Sale (18-3, 2.38 ERA) face off. Thursday's game will see Sean Manaea (12-5, 3.29 ERA) face of against Max Fried (10-10, 3.42 ERA).
The three starters had success against the Mets when they saw them earlier in the season. Schwellenbach threw seven scoreless innings against the Mets on July 27, Sale threw 7.1 innings of two-run ball on July 25, while Fried threw seven hitless innings on May 11. Sale, though, was pulled early from his last start when his fastball velocity dipped under 90 mph.
As for the Mets starters against the Braves this seaso, Severino threw five innings of two-run ball on May 12, Peterson gave up four runs in five innings on July 28, while Manaea has not seen them yet this season.
Each team is throwing their best pitchers for this series, and with Chris Sale, the likely Cy Young in the NL, going on Wednesday, the Mets simply matching the Braves starters would be a win, based upon the Mets' recent success in winning games in the later innings.
2. The home run battle will go a long way in determining the winner of this series.
If there was one thing that doomed the Mets in 2022, it was that they weren't hitting timely home runs and they gave up too many home runs, both in that September's crucial series and in the Wild Card series against the San Diego Padres.
In 2022, the Mets hit 172 home runs that season. This year, they already have 202 with six games left, and they hit a bunch during the homestand that just finished. Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Alvarez appear to be swinging the bat well at the right time. Luisangel Acuña also hit his first three big league homers last week. Getting Francisco Lindor back, even in a designated hitter role, would make the lineup that much longer.
Meanwhile, the Braves have 206 round-trippers this season, and they've been hitting homers recently as well. Michael Harris has hit seven of his 15 home runs this season in September. Meanwhile, Matt Olson and Jorge Soler have each hit four since the calendar turned as well. Also, Marcell Ozuna is a big threat as well. Despite hitting just one home run in his last 116 at-bats dating back to August 21, Ozuna has 38 on the season and hit .480 on their road trip that just finished.
The power battle between both teams is even entering this series, but the Mets hitting home runs will serve them well in a ballpark where they've hit a lot in their limited time there.
3. The Mets getting something out of Francisco Lindor will be a huge bonus.
The biggest question surrounding this team in the past two weeks has revolved around the health of their team MVP Francisco Lindor, who has dealt with back tightness. He did not play at all in the team's last homestand, and they said that Tuesday would be the best case scenario for a return. For the Mets, the emergence of Luisangel Acuña as a dynamic playmaker both at the plate and at shortstop has allowed the team to take Lindor's recovery more patiently.
With that in mind, the Mets have not gotten anything out of J.D. Martinez at DH over the past two weeks, and the Mets would love to get Lindor into the lineup as the designated hitter to lengthen that lineup, and put him in big spots against Atlanta's best relievers late in these games.
4. Relievers other than Edwin Diaz will be needed in key situations late in games.
Edwin Diaz looked as good as he's looked all season over the weekend against the Phillies, as he recorded a 4-out save on Saturday and a 6-out save on Sunday night. It is possible that he will be needed at least twice to finish off games against Atlanta, a team in which he's been successful against.
However, there is the possibility that Diaz would not be available for Tuesday's game to avoid the burnout of recording 10 crucial outs against some of baseball's best hitters over the weekend.
The Mets will need to get key outs from Reed Garrett, Jose Butto, and trade deadline pickups Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek, who have all been effective recently. If they can hold serve, it would signal the Mets are on their way to the playoffs.
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