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The key here is simple for the New York Mets. Win the upcoming series against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park starting on Tuesday, and they are in the playoffs after a riveting season full of twists and turns.
The Mets enter this series with a two game lead over the Braves for a Wild Card berth and are tied in the season series with five wins on each side (tiebreakers are determined by head-to-head) at the end of the season.
But given that Atlanta has been a house of horrors for the Mets in recent years in big games (think 1998, 1999, and 2022), there are still that fear amongst some fans that the entire season could be washed away in the Deep South over the next three days.
1. The Mets starting pitching must match that of the Braves.
Both teams have had starting pitching injuries to deal with this season, yet all three matchups this week are pretty spicy. Tuesday's game will see Luis Severino (11-6, 3.79 ERA) take on Spencer Schwellenbach (7-7, 3.61 ERA). On Wedneseday, southpaws David Peterson (9-3, 3.08 ERA) and Chris Sale (18-3, 2.38 ERA) face off. Thursday's game will see Sean Manaea (12-5, 3.29 ERA) face of against Max Fried (10-10, 3.42 ERA).
The three starters had success against the Mets when they saw them earlier in the season. Schwellenbach threw seven scoreless innings against the Mets on July 27, Sale threw 7.1 innings of two-run ball on July 25, while Fried threw seven hitless innings on May 11. Sale, though, was pulled early from his last start when his fastball velocity dipped under 90 mph.
As for the Mets starters against the Braves this seaso, Severino threw five innings of two-run ball on May 12, Peterson gave up four runs in five innings on July 28, while Manaea has not seen them yet this season.
Each team is throwing their best pitchers for this series, and with Chris Sale, the likely Cy Young in the NL, going on Wednesday, the Mets simply matching the Braves starters would be a win, based upon the Mets' recent success in winning games in the later innings.