The top 4 Black Friday bargains the Mets should pursue
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Black Friday is upon us. For some, that means racing to Walmart at ridiculously early times and doing anything to take advantage of the sales. For others, it means watching videos of those people getting their butts whooped on Twitter while ordering the same things for the same price online. For the New York Mets, it means trying to get the most value out of a trade or free agent signing.
There are several options available in trade and in free agency. Here are the top four bargains the Mets should be pursuing.
4) The Mets should be interested in Michael Lorenzen as a potential two-way player.
Lorenzen is coming off of a down year in 2021, posting an ERA of 5.59 in 29 innings. However, he did have some bad luck, indicated by his FIP being almost a run and a half lower at 4.17.
The righty came up as a starter so he’s capable of throwing a lot of innings from the bullpen. He also features a starter's arsenal of five pitches, featuring a firm fastball in the high 90’s, a cutter in the low 90’s, and three off speed pitches.
He also played the outfield for the Reds, seeing most of his time in center field. He has a .710 OPS with seven home runs in his career. Lorenzen is a tremendous athlete, listed at a lean 6'3" and 217 pounds.
Lorenzen is 30 and coming off of a down year with an injury, so he shouldn’t be too expensive. He could be signed as a long reliever or setup guy, neither of which is going to come with the premium cost of a closer. Given that he is also athletic enough to play center field and hit a little bit, he could be a heist. The Mets don't have a lot of depth at relief pitcher, so this is an area of need.
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3) Aristides Aquino has four years of control and the Mets could use all of them.
Aquino’s best season was 2019, when he hit 19 homers and slugged .576 in 56 games as a rookie. This year, he hit 10 homers and six doubles, with a slugging percentage of .408. He only appeared in 84 games.
He is primarily a right fielder, and he has the throwing arm to stay there. While he doesn't have great range, he has played center and left field a little bit over the last couple of years, so he could play there in a pinch.
The Reds have so many outfielders that Aquino has had a hard time finding playing time, so the Reds could benefit by moving one of them. Even with Nick Castellanos opting out of his contract and testing the free agent market, the Reds still have Jesse Winker, Shoho Akiyama, Nick Senzel, and Tyler Naquin.
Since Aquino seems to have drawn the short straw on playing time, he seems like the most logical to be on the move this winter. With four years of control left, he could be a long-term replacement for Michael Conforto.
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2) Zac Gallen is an intriguing arm that could provide great value in the Mets’ rotation.
Gallen is coming off of a season in which he set career-highs in starts (23) made and innings pitched (121.1). However, he also set his career-high in ERA at 4.30 and WHIP at 1.29. While he doesn’t have the flashiest stuff, he knows how to pitch.
The concern with Gallen is his command, or more accurately his lack thereof. He walks almost 10% of the batters he faces and averages 3.6 BB/9. If he can command his pitches better, he has the ability and the makeup to be a very impactful pitcher.
His Savant metrics from this season are pretty spread out. His strikeout rate was in the 70th percentile, which is good. Unfortunately, some of his hard hit metrics were poor, with his hard hit rate in the 18th percentile. If he can harness that command more, he should be able to avoid the middle of the zone and get more swings and misses.
Gallen has four years of control remaining and the Diamondbacks won’t be competing in any of them. In 2019, his ERA was 2.81 and in 2020 it was 2.75, so the ace potential is absolutely there. Since he’s coming off his worst season in terms of ERA and WHIP, he could be a cost-effective replacement for Marcus Stroman.
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1) Avisail Garcia would be a steal for the Mets.
Garcia is coming off his best season, posting an OPS+ of 117, a wRC+ of 115, and an .820 OPS with 29 homers and 86 RBI’s. He has been one of the more consistent hitters over the last several years, averaging a 114 OPS+ and 18 homers per season since 2017.
The righty hits the ball very hard. His Baseball Savant metrics have his hard hit rate, barrel rate, average exit velocity, and several other metrics in the top 30% of the league. The knock on him is that he doesn't walk very much and there is some swing and miss in his game.
Garcia will spend most of his time in right field. The defensive metrics are split on him, with Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) having him at +8 in right, but Outs Above Average (OAA) having him at -2. He has a really strong arm that makes up most of his defensive value. The potential and athleticism to play great defense is there.
Given that he's 30 years old, he isn't in for a massive contract like some of the other outfielders on the market. Since he's so consistent, there's a good chance that he outperforms whatever deal he signs, making him the top bargain available this winter.
Who do you think will be the biggest bargain of the offseason?
Next. Trevor May's 2021 reflection and goals for 2022. dark